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<article xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:oasis="http://docs.oasis-open.org/ns/oasis-exchange/table" xml:lang="en" dtd-version="3.0">
  <front>
    <journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">ESurf</journal-id><journal-title-group>
    <journal-title>Earth Surface Dynamics</journal-title>
    <abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">ESurf</abbrev-journal-title><abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Earth Surf. Dynam.</abbrev-journal-title>
  </journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">2196-632X</issn><publisher>
    <publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
    <publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
  </publisher></journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/esurf-7-895-2019</article-id><title-group><article-title>Mapping landscape connectivity as a driver of species richness under tectonic and climatic forcing</article-title><alt-title>Mapping landscape connectivity under tectonic and climatic forcing</alt-title>
      </title-group><?xmltex \runningtitle{Mapping landscape connectivity under tectonic and climatic forcing}?><?xmltex \runningauthor{T. Salles et al.}?>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes" rid="aff1">
          <name><surname>Salles</surname><given-names>Tristan</given-names></name>
          <email>tristan.salles@sydney.edu.au</email>
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6095-7689</ext-link></contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff1">
          <name><surname>Rey</surname><given-names>Patrice</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff2">
          <name><surname>Bertuzzo</surname><given-names>Enrico</given-names></name>
          
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5872-0666</ext-link></contrib>
        <aff id="aff1"><label>1</label><institution>School of Geosciences, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, 2006, Australia</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff2"><label>2</label><institution>Dipartimento di Scienze Ambientali, Informatica e Statistica, Università Ca'Foscari Venezia, Venice, Italy</institution>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <author-notes><corresp id="corr1">Tristan Salles (tristan.salles@sydney.edu.au)</corresp></author-notes><pub-date><day>1</day><month>October</month><year>2019</year></pub-date>
      
      <volume>7</volume>
      <issue>4</issue>
      <fpage>895</fpage><lpage>910</lpage>
      <history>
        <date date-type="received"><day>13</day><month>June</month><year>2019</year></date>
           <date date-type="rev-request"><day>26</day><month>June</month><year>2019</year></date>
           <date date-type="rev-recd"><day>12</day><month>August</month><year>2019</year></date>
           <date date-type="accepted"><day>7</day><month>September</month><year>2019</year></date>
      </history>
      <permissions>
        <copyright-statement>Copyright: © 2019 Tristan Salles et al.</copyright-statement>
        <copyright-year>2019</copyright-year>
      <license license-type="open-access"><license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://esurf.copernicus.org/articles/7/895/2019/esurf-7-895-2019.html">This article is available from https://esurf.copernicus.org/articles/7/895/2019/esurf-7-895-2019.html</self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="https://esurf.copernicus.org/articles/7/895/2019/esurf-7-895-2019.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://esurf.copernicus.org/articles/7/895/2019/esurf-7-895-2019.pdf</self-uri>
      <abstract><title>Abstract</title>
    <p id="d1e104">Species distribution and richness ultimately result from complex interactions between biological, physical, and environmental factors. It has been recently shown for a static natural landscape that the elevational connectivity, which measures the proximity of a site to others with similar habitats, is a key physical driver of local species richness. Here we examine changes in elevational connectivity during mountain building using a landscape evolution model. We find that under uniform tectonic and variable climatic forcing, connectivity peaks at mid-elevations when the landscape reaches its geomorphic steady state and that the orographic effect on geomorphic evolution tends to favour lower connectivity on leeward-facing catchments. Statistical comparisons between connectivity distribution and results from a metacommunity model confirm that to the 1st order, landscape elevation connectivity explains species richness in simulated mountainous regions. Our results also predict that low-connectivity areas which favour isolation, a driver for in situ speciation, are distributed across the entire elevational range for simulated orogenic cycles. Adjustments of catchment morphology after the cessation of tectonic activity should reduce speciation by decreasing the number of isolated regions.</p>
  </abstract>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
<body>
      

      <?xmltex \hack{\allowdisplaybreaks}?>
<sec id="Ch1.S1" sec-type="intro">
  <label>1</label><title>Introduction</title>
      <p id="d1e118">The idea that mountainous landscapes play a role in biological evolution has a long history that can be tracked back to Darwin and Wallace, when fauna boundaries were noted to correspond to physiographic discontinuities and gradients <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx63" id="paren.1"/>. Over geological timescales (millions of years), surface processes including erosion and incision conspire to undo surface uplift driven by tectonic and geodynamic processes. These competing processes can convert landscapes of low elevation and relief, a homogeneous environment, and low resistance to migration into complex landscapes with sharp environmental gradients and fragmented habitats separated by migratory corridors <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx58" id="paren.2"/>.</p>
      <p id="d1e127">Several studies have shown that on geological timescales, changes in landscape morphology stimulate migratory behaviour, dispersal, and redistribution as species track their optimum habitats <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx25 bib1.bibx16 bib1.bibx40" id="paren.3"/>. Species running out of favourable habitats are forced to coexist with other ones and adapt, which leads to speciation, increasing endemism and biodiversity <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx55" id="paren.4"/>. As the mountainous landscape becomes more complex and diverse, environmental gradients increase and species have to move across shorter distances to track suitable habitats <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx55 bib1.bibx21" id="paren.5"/> and find refuges to survive both long-term mountain-building processes and short-term climatic changes.  Hence, mountains host a disproportionately large fraction of terrestrial species <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx3 bib1.bibx27 bib1.bibx59" id="paren.6"/>, illustrating the tectonic influence on ecology and  evolutionary biology.</p>
      <?pagebreak page896?><p id="d1e142">Determining the underlying geophysical drivers of species richness requires accounting for factors (gradients of topography, habitat capacity, humidity, temperature, altitude, and solar exposure) that often covary with elevation <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx33 bib1.bibx30 bib1.bibx35 bib1.bibx32" id="paren.7"/>. Recently, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx6" id="text.8"/> proposed a metric to assess biodiversity patterns.
The metric, called landscape elevational connectivity (LEC), accounts  for two fundamental landscape geomorphological properties: (1) within mountains ranges the maximum surface area peaks for mid-elevations rather than the lowest elevations, and (2) at mid-elevations species have the option to disperse up or down to well-connected suitable patches. As a consequence of these two properties, species richness (e.g.  diversity) is predicted to be highest at mid-elevations, showing a hump-shaped pattern <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx6 bib1.bibx33 bib1.bibx43 bib1.bibx45 bib1.bibx37 bib1.bibx31" id="paren.9"/>  because  diversity is promoted by increased area and connectivity <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx34 bib1.bibx57 bib1.bibx20 bib1.bibx11" id="paren.10"/>.</p>
      <p id="d1e157">The results from  <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx6" id="text.11"/> were obtained on a static landscape. The aim of this study is to extend the analysis over the entire orogenic cycle from the mountain-building to relaxation phases using a synthetic example and to map over space and time the landscape connectivity. First we analyse the temporal and spatial LEC distribution based on the results of a landscape elevation model <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx50" id="paren.12"/> under uniform tectonic and variable climatic conditions. Then, we run a zero-sum metacommunity model <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx29" id="paren.13"/> on the simulated synthetic surfaces and, as in <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx6" id="text.14"/>, we find that the LEC quantity explains to the 1st order species richness in mountainous regions and can be used to infer changing patterns of biodiversity resulting from the effect of climate, tectonic, and geomorphic processes. The obtained results provide new insights on how the tempo imposed by landscape morphological changes over geological timescales affects the distribution of species richness in mountainous regions.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2">
  <label>2</label><title>Methods and experimental design</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS1">
  <label>2.1</label><title>Coupled landscape evolution and orographic precipitation model</title>
      <p id="d1e187">In this paper, the numerical simulations of mountain evolution are performed with the <italic>Badlands</italic> landscape evolution model <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx50 bib1.bibx53" id="paren.15"/>, and fluvial erosion rates and predicted sediment transport in rivers are solved using the stream-power law (SPL). The SPL relates the erosion rate  <inline-formula><mml:math id="M1" display="inline"><mml:mi>I</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> to  the product of mean annual net precipitation rate (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M2" display="inline"><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mi>P</mml:mi><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover></mml:math></inline-formula>), drainage area (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M3" display="inline"><mml:mi>A</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>),  and local slope (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M4" display="inline"><mml:mi>S</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>) and takes the form
            <disp-formula id="Ch1.E1" content-type="numbered"><label>1</label><mml:math id="M5" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>I</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">κ</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">e</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mi>P</mml:mi><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mi>A</mml:mi><mml:msup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mi>m</mml:mi></mml:msup><mml:msup><mml:mi>S</mml:mi><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:msup><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>
          where the erodibility coefficient <inline-formula><mml:math id="M6" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">κ</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">e</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is controlled by climate and lithology, and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M7" display="inline"><mml:mi>m</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M8" display="inline"><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> are positive exponents <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx14" id="paren.16"/> that mostly depend on the nature of the dominant erosional mechanism <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx18" id="paren.17"/>. Regardless of its simplicity, the SPL (Eq. <xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="Ch1.E1"/>) allows us to simulate the main geomorphic characteristics of mountainous regions, in which landscape evolution is dominated by a detachment-limited erosion regime <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx65" id="paren.18"/>.</p>
      <p id="d1e301">In addition to riverine processes, soil creep (approximated by a diffusion law) is used to account for semi-continuous processes of soil displacement <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx61 bib1.bibx53" id="paren.19"/>:
            <disp-formula id="Ch1.E2" content-type="numbered"><label>2</label><mml:math id="M9" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>D</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">κ</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">d</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">∇</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mi>z</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>
          where <inline-formula><mml:math id="M10" display="inline"><mml:mi>z</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> is the  local landscape elevation and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M11" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">κ</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">d</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is the diffusion coefficient. This formulation assumes a linear dependency of superficial sediment transport on the topographic gradient.</p>
      <p id="d1e349">Accounting for the two processes defined above, the equation of mass conservation driving landscape temporal evolution is expressed as
            <disp-formula id="Ch1.E3" content-type="numbered"><label>3</label><mml:math id="M12" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>∂</mml:mo><mml:mi>z</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mo>∂</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mi>U</mml:mi><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mi>I</mml:mi><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi>D</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>
          where <inline-formula><mml:math id="M13" display="inline"><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> is time and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M14" display="inline"><mml:mi>U</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> is the rock uplift rate. It is worth noting that the landscape evolution scenarios presented in this study neglect spatial and temporal variations in tectonic evolution and rock strength, as well as the influence of sediment characteristics on  river incision.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F1" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{1}?><label>Figure 1</label><caption><p id="d1e401"><bold>(a)</bold> Experimental design showing a modelled landscape after 5 Myr and the controlling forcing conditions. Two scenarios are run. In the first one a constant precipitation (1 m yr<inline-formula><mml:math id="M15" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>) is applied; then, in the second, an orographic precipitation model is used with constant wind speed (0.5 m s<inline-formula><mml:math id="M16" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>) coming from the south. For both scenarios, the model is forced with an initial uplift phase (uniform rate of 1 mm yr<inline-formula><mml:math id="M17" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>) through the first 5 Myr. <bold>(b)</bold> Approach used to compute the closeness measure (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M18" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>C</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) required to quantify landscape elevational connectivity (LEC) based on the topography grid (e.g. region A) defined in panel <bold>(a)</bold>. Two possible paths connecting site <inline-formula><mml:math id="M19" display="inline"><mml:mi>j</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M20" display="inline"><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> (inset) are proposed with their corresponding elevation profiles. Associated costs are computed following Eq. (<xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="Ch1.E6"/>) (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M21" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mo>∑</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:mi>r</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow><mml:mi>L</mml:mi></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>z</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mi>r</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>z</mml:mi><mml:mi>j</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:msup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>). Despite  a longer length, the cost associated with the red path is smaller than that of the blue one as it travels through sites with elevations more similar to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M22" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>z</mml:mi><mml:mi>j</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (adapted from <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx6" id="altparen.20"/>).</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=497.923228pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://esurf.copernicus.org/articles/7/895/2019/esurf-7-895-2019-f01.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e541">Precipitation patterns are known to impact geomorphic evolution at local (ridge–valley) to regional (full mountain range) scales <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx2 bib1.bibx7" id="paren.21"/>. To estimate the controls of precipitation variability on topography evolution and on associated landscape connectivity, the set of landscape evolution equations presented above is coupled with a linear orographic precipitation model  <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx56" id="paren.22"/>. The approach already implemented in <italic>Badlands</italic> <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx54" id="paren.23"/> only accounts for the  1st-order physics of orographic precipitation, computes rainfall under idealised climatic conditions defined by  a specific wind velocity and direction <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx2" id="paren.24"/>, and assumes steady, uniform, and saturated airflow (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F1"/>a).</p>
      <p id="d1e562">In the study, analyses of catchment dynamics are performed using river longitudinal profiles as well as <inline-formula><mml:math id="M23" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">χ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> plots and maps.  <inline-formula><mml:math id="M24" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">χ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> analysis is a method of extracting information from channel profiles that attempts to compare channels with different discharges <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx42" id="paren.25"/>. The longitudinal coordinate <inline-formula><mml:math id="M25" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">χ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> has dimensions of length and is linearly related to the elevation <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx39" id="paren.26"/>.  The quantity <inline-formula><mml:math id="M26" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">χ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> at any channel point depends on the river network geometry and estimates the dynamic state of river basins <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx67" id="paren.27"/>:
            <disp-formula id="Ch1.E4" content-type="numbered"><label>4</label><mml:math id="M27" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">χ</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:munderover><mml:mo movablelimits="false">∫</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>b</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:munderover><mml:msup><mml:mfenced close=")" open="("><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>A</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi>A</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle></mml:mfenced><mml:mrow><mml:mi>m</mml:mi><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">d</mml:mi><mml:msup><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>
          with <inline-formula><mml:math id="M28" display="inline"><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> the distance along a given channel from the river base (the outlet) <inline-formula><mml:math id="M29" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>b</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and the point considered, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M30" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>A</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> a scaling area, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M31" display="inline"><mml:mi>m</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M32" display="inline"><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> the coefficients of the SPL (Eq. <xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="Ch1.E1"/>), and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M33" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>A</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> the upstream drainage area at position <inline-formula><mml:math id="M34" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. Mapping <inline-formula><mml:math id="M35" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">χ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>  along channel networks and comparing values of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M36" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">χ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>  across drainage divides provides a measure of the equilibrium state of a river network under the influence of tectonic uplift and river erosion.</p>
</sec>
<?pagebreak page897?><sec id="Ch1.S2.SS2">
  <label>2.2</label><title>Landscape elevational connectivity</title>
      <p id="d1e759">Landscape connectivity encapsulates the combined effects of (1) landscape morphological structure and (2) the species ability to move outside its usual niche width <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx60" id="paren.28"/>. As such it is both species- and landscape-specific. Here, we generalise the concept and assume that any position in the simulated mountainous landscape corresponds to a particular habitat containing a pool of adapted species able to move in a limited elevation range up and down their initial and preferred habitat elevation.</p>
      <p id="d1e765">We chose to map landscape connectivity and its distribution by measuring the landscape elevational connectivity (LEC) proposed by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx6" id="text.29"/>. This metric does not account for a specific species but rather focuses on a pool of species assuming a niche width that can be a percentage of the mountain elevation range or fixed. Here, we use the <italic>bioLEC</italic> Python package to measure the LEC index <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx52" id="paren.30"/>. The LEC is calculated on the evolving landscape obtained from  <italic>Badlands</italic> at discrete time intervals and measures how easily species living in other habitats can spread and colonise a given point.</p>
      <p id="d1e780">Considering a 2-D lattice made of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M37" display="inline"><mml:mi>N</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> squared cells, the LEC for cell <inline-formula><mml:math id="M38" display="inline"><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M39" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">LEC</mml:mi><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) is given by
            <disp-formula id="Ch1.E5" content-type="numbered"><label>5</label><mml:math id="M40" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">LEC</mml:mi><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:munderover><mml:mo movablelimits="false">∑</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow><mml:mi>N</mml:mi></mml:munderover><mml:msub><mml:mi>C</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>
          <?xmltex \hack{\newpage}?><?xmltex \hack{\noindent}?>where <inline-formula><mml:math id="M41" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>C</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> quantifies the closeness between sites <inline-formula><mml:math id="M42" display="inline"><mml:mi>j</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M43" display="inline"><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> with respect to elevational connectivity. <inline-formula><mml:math id="M44" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>C</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> measures the cost for a given species adapted to cell <inline-formula><mml:math id="M45" display="inline"><mml:mi>j</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> to spread and colonise cell <inline-formula><mml:math id="M46" display="inline"><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>. This cost is a function of elevation and evaluates how often species adapted to the elevation of cell <inline-formula><mml:math id="M47" display="inline"><mml:mi>j</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> have to travel outside their optimal species niche width (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M48" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>) to reach cell <inline-formula><mml:math id="M49" display="inline"><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F1"/>b), assuming that species niche is represented by a Gaussian function of the elevation.</p>
      <p id="d1e927">The estimation of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M50" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>C</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> requires the computation of all the possible paths <inline-formula><mml:math id="M51" display="inline"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> from <inline-formula><mml:math id="M52" display="inline"><mml:mi>j</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M53" display="inline"><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> and is defined as the maximum closeness value along these paths. Following <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx6" id="text.31"/>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M54" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>C</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is expressed as
            <disp-formula id="Ch1.E6" content-type="numbered"><label>6</label><mml:math id="M55" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mi>ln⁡</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi>C</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:munder><mml:mo movablelimits="false">min⁡</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>∈</mml:mo><mml:mo mathvariant="italic">{</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:mo>→</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo mathvariant="italic">}</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:munder><mml:munderover><mml:mo movablelimits="false">∑</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:mi>r</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow><mml:mi>L</mml:mi></mml:munderover><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>z</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mi>r</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>z</mml:mi><mml:mi>j</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:msup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>
          where <inline-formula><mml:math id="M56" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">…</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mi>L</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (with <inline-formula><mml:math id="M57" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mi>j</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M58" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mi>L</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) represents the cells in the path <inline-formula><mml:math id="M59" display="inline"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> from <inline-formula><mml:math id="M60" display="inline"><mml:mi>j</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M61" display="inline"><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>.</p>
      <p id="d1e1161">Equation (<xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="Ch1.E6"/>) is solved for each cell <inline-formula><mml:math id="M62" display="inline"><mml:mi>j</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> using Dijkstra's algorithm <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx19" id="paren.32"/> with diagonal connectivity between cells. The approach in <italic>bioLEC</italic> is based on the scikit-image Dijkstra algorithm <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx62" id="paren.33"/>. For each cell <inline-formula><mml:math id="M63" display="inline"><mml:mi>j</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>, the algorithm  builds a Dijkstra tree that branches the given cell with all the cells defining the simulated region. Edge weights are set equal to the square of the difference between the considered vertex elevation (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M64" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>z</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mi>r</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M65" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>z</mml:mi><mml:mi>j</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. The least-cost distance between <inline-formula><mml:math id="M66" display="inline"><mml:mi>j</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M67" display="inline"><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> is then calculated as the minimum<?pagebreak page898?> sum of edge weights obtained from the cells along the shortest path (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F1"/>b).</p>
      <p id="d1e1232">Calculation of LEC values over the entire simulated region (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M68" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> M points in this study) is slow. Here we use the parallel strategy available in the <italic>bioLEC</italic> package wherein Dijkstra trees for all paths are balanced and distributed over multiple processors using a message-passing interface (MPI). Using this approach, LEC computation on the synthetic landscapes obtained  in this study is less than 4 min when distributed over 240 processors.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS3">
  <label>2.3</label><title>Experimental setting</title>
      <p id="d1e1256">Our experimental design consists of a 100 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M69" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 100 km surface at a resolution of 100 m (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F1"/>a). The initial topography is a flat area over which random noise (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M70" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>≤</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> m) is applied.  To estimate landscape connectivity through a complete orogenic cycle, simulations are run for 10 Myr and a uniform uplift of 1 mm yr<inline-formula><mml:math id="M71" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>  is applied during the first 5 Myr (e.g. mountain-building phase) on all surface nodes with the exception of boundary points that remain fixed over the runs (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F1"/>a). A second phase, corresponding to the cessation of tectonic activity over the remaining 5 Myr, simulates the lowering of interfluves and the erosional decay of the mountain system (e.g. mountain relaxation phase).</p>
      <p id="d1e1292">In this study and for simplicity, the SPL parameters (Eq. <xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="Ch1.E1"/>) are set constant and do not change between simulations. We assign a uniform erodibility coefficient <inline-formula><mml:math id="M72" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">κ</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">e</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M73" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">8</mml:mn><mml:mo>×</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">10</mml:mn><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">6</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> yr<inline-formula><mml:math id="M74" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>, and  exponents <inline-formula><mml:math id="M75" display="inline"><mml:mi>m</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M76" display="inline"><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> are set to 0.5 and 1, respectively; these exponents values are commonly used for eroding fluvial systems <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx65 bib1.bibx23" id="paren.34"/>. For the hillslope processes (Eq. <xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="Ch1.E2"/>), a constant diffusion coefficient of 0.1 m yr<inline-formula><mml:math id="M77" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> is chosen.</p>
      <p id="d1e1370">To estimate the influence of climate on geomorphic changes and in turn on landscape connectivity, we perform two simulations (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F1"/>a) with (1) a uniform precipitation rate of 1 m yr<inline-formula><mml:math id="M78" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> over the simulated 10 Myr and (2) an orographic precipitation model considering a prevailing wind direction from the south with a wind speed of 0.5 m s<inline-formula><mml:math id="M79" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> and other orographic parameters set within the range proposed by  <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx56" id="text.35"/>. In both cases, simulated mountain ranges are characteristic of dendritic, erosional landscapes.</p>
      <p id="d1e1402">The computation of LEC over time requires the definition of species niche width (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M80" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>). In the study conducted here, we limit our analysis  to the case in which all species have the same niche width at a specific time assuming a ratio <inline-formula><mml:math id="M81" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>z</mml:mi><mml:mo>max⁡</mml:mo></mml:msub><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>z</mml:mi><mml:mo>min⁡</mml:mo></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> constant. As the landscape changes through time, the elevation range <inline-formula><mml:math id="M82" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>z</mml:mi><mml:mo>min⁡</mml:mo></mml:msub><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>z</mml:mi><mml:mo>max⁡</mml:mo></mml:msub><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is modified and so is species niche width. Therefore, we implicitly assume that the characteristic response of the landscape to tectonic and climatic forces happens on a temporal scale much longer than the effective evolution and adaptation of individual species <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx38 bib1.bibx58" id="paren.36"/>.</p><?xmltex \hack{\newpage}?>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3">
  <label>3</label><title>Results</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS1">
  <label>3.1</label><title>Connectivity distribution under uniform conditions</title>
      <p id="d1e1480">In this first set of results, we consider a geographic domain free of environmental gradients under a constant precipitation rate. As the region is uniformly uplifted at a rate of 1 mm yr<inline-formula><mml:math id="M83" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> during the first 5 Myr, landscape dissection by riverine and hillslope processes leads to valley deepening and the development of self-organised and stable large drainage basins (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F2"/>a).</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F2" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{2}?><label>Figure 2</label><caption><p id="d1e1499">Outputs from the uniform precipitation (1 m yr<inline-formula><mml:math id="M84" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>) model. <bold>(a)</bold> The top row presents the evolution of the landscape at three time steps during the mountain-building phase (induced by a uniform uplift of 1 mm yr<inline-formula><mml:math id="M85" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>), just before the cessation of uplift at 5.0 Myr (landscape is at steady state, i.e. erosion balances uplift) and during the early phase of mountain collapse (5.5 Myr). The bottom row shows the spatial distributions of normalised LEC for the three considered time steps. <bold>(b)</bold> Detailed maps presenting changes in normalised LEC for regions 1, 2, and 3 defined in panel <bold>(a)</bold> and illustrating the geomorphic controls on LEC variability over time. <bold>(c)</bold> 3-D view of the spatial patterns of the LEC index at 5 Myr with generally low LEC for valleys, minor peaks lower on the ridges, and high LEC on ridge flanks.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=426.791339pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://esurf.copernicus.org/articles/7/895/2019/esurf-7-895-2019-f02.jpg"/>

        </fig>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F3" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{3}?><label>Figure 3</label><caption><p id="d1e1547">Analysis of uniform precipitation results. Panels <bold>(a)</bold> and <bold>(b)</bold> relate to the mountain-building phase (0–5 Myr) and panels <bold>(c)</bold> and <bold>(d)</bold> to the relaxation phase (5–10 Myr). Plots in panels <bold>(a)</bold> and <bold>(c)</bold> illustrate the elevational gradients of normalised LEC over time (corresponding numbers in millions of years (Myr) for each line). Blue and red lines represent the average of normalised LEC within elevational bands. Blue and red areas are the standard deviation computed based on normalised LEC values as a function of site elevation at 5 and 6 Myr (blue areas) and 0.5 and 7.5 Myr (red areas). For plots <bold>(a)</bold> and <bold>(c)</bold>, line colours reflect different stages of landscape evolution. In panel <bold>(a)</bold> the change from red to blue marks the disappearance of uplifted plateau. In panel <bold>(c)</bold> the change from blue to red relates to the erosion of 50 % of the maximum elevation obtained at steady state. These two plots have a moving horizontal scale as <inline-formula><mml:math id="M86" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>z</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">min</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M87" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>z</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">max</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> change with time.  Panels <bold>(b)</bold> and <bold>(d)</bold> show main-stream temporal evolution for the catchment area (region A) defined in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F2"/>a and displayed at 3 and 6 Myr, respectively (right side). For the considered catchment, we show the extracted information from main channel profiles based on <inline-formula><mml:math id="M88" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">χ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> plot analysis  <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx42" id="paren.37"/> (blue) and longitudinal river profiles (red) over time (associated time in millions of years (Myr) is given for each line).</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=497.923228pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://esurf.copernicus.org/articles/7/895/2019/esurf-7-895-2019-f03.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e1629">Following the initial orogenic phase of plateau uplift and landscape incision, river longitudinal profiles exhibit a concave upward shape, a common signature of bedrock river systems (red lines in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F3"/>b). This typical shape is a direct outcome of the detachment-limited stream-power law model and is the result of the integrated effect of tectonic, climatic, and bedrock erodibility. After 4 Myr of evolution, the landscape has fully adjusted to the imposed constant climatic and tectonic forcing, as shown by the increasing linearity of river <inline-formula><mml:math id="M89" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">χ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> plots (blue lines in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F3"/>b) <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx42" id="paren.38"/>. After the cessation of uplift at 5 Myr, erosion induces the rapid lowering of elevations (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F2"/>a) and slope gradients (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F3"/>d) through valley widening that ultimately leads to a low-relief peneplain.</p>
      <p id="d1e1651">From an elevational niche perspective, all connectivity (e.g. migratory) paths on a flat landscape are equal. This is not the case on a complex landscape where connectivity can only occur along a network of corridors providing species with their elevational requirements  <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx55 bib1.bibx21" id="paren.39"/>. The mapping of the spatial distribution of LEC (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F2"/>a) and associated gradients of LEC (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F3"/>a, c) reveals a migration of maximum LEC regions – during the initial orogenic phase – from the highest elevations (e.g. uplifted plateau) to mid-elevations as the landscape stabilises.</p>
      <p id="d1e1661">This redistribution leads to two regions of maximum LEC, with the highest one attributed to the symmetrical nature of the simulated synthetic landscape. During the relaxation phase, the LEC peak migrates to lower elevations as the floor of the valleys widens  (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F2"/>b). After dissection of the uplifted plateau, the model predicts that higher LECs are found at intermediate to high elevations (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F3"/>a, thick blue line). This result agrees with the hump-shaped elevational gradients of mean species richness widely observed in nature <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx26 bib1.bibx15 bib1.bibx9" id="paren.40"/>.
We also see that for areas at similar elevation, connectivity values could differ significantly as shown by standard deviation curves (highlighted blue regions at 5.0 and 6.0 Myr in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F3"/>a, c).
It suggests that using only elevation as a predictor of landscape connectivity is unlikely to be a good proxy.</p>
      <p id="d1e1673">We also observe that, irrespective of the scale of observation, LEC distribution follows a similar pattern for specific time intervals even if the considered domains traverse different elevational extents. For example, the result in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F2"/>c <?pagebreak page899?> shows similar mid-elevation maximum LEC (i.e. peak of diversity) over valley, catchment, and regional scales.</p>
      <p id="d1e1678">Our results show that under uniform tectonic and climatic forcing, landscape dynamics exert a 1st-order control on the landscape connectivity distribution, which is mostly distributed at mid-elevation and peaks on the highest flanks when geomorphic steady state is reached (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F3"/>a, thick blue line). The peak position is related to the symmetrical nature of the chosen boundary conditions and species niche width (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M90" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) as shown in Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S4.SS1"/>.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS2">
  <label>3.2</label><title>Orographic effect on patterns of landscape connectivity</title>
      <p id="d1e1705">To explore the influence of heterogenous precipitation on connectivity, we design a new set of experiments using a coupled climate and landscape evolution model in which precipitation responds through space and time to the build-up of topography (i.e. orographic precipitation; Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F4"/>a, b).</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F4" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{4}?><label>Figure 4</label><caption><p id="d1e1712">Generated outputs of the coupled landscape evolution and orographic precipitation models at the end of the uplift phase (5.0 Myr). <bold>(a)</bold> Induced rainfall map from the orographic model in which precipitation is determined by prevailing upslope winds (coming from the south) and by the moisture content of the air. Rainfall distribution is characterised by precipitation maxima on the windward face of the divides. <bold>(b)</bold> Resulting elevation grid for which the topographic evolution of the mountain ranges is affected by the spatial pattern of precipitation and tectonics. During the building phase, main drainage divides continuously migrate towards the drier side and asymmetric topography develops with steeper regions <bold>(c)</bold> on the leeward side of the ranges. <bold>(d)</bold> Resulting normalised LEC showing specific patterns of distribution with higher values obtained on windward-facing catchments. At this time step, lower LECs are generally found in valleys and mountain tops, and higher LECs are found on the flanks of both the mountain tops and main valley systems. <bold>(e)</bold> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M91" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">χ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> map <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx42 bib1.bibx67" id="paren.41"/> for inset A (shown in panel <bold>b</bold>) highlighting discontinuous <inline-formula><mml:math id="M92" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">χ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> across drainage divides, with larger <inline-formula><mml:math id="M93" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">χ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> values on the leeward-facing catchments (<italic>victim</italic> basins) compared to the windward ones (<italic>aggressor</italic> basins). Insets B and C refer to the region used in the analysis performed in Figs. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F5"/> and <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F9"/>, respectively.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=497.923228pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://esurf.copernicus.org/articles/7/895/2019/esurf-7-895-2019-f04.jpg"/>

        </fig>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F5" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{5}?><label>Figure 5</label><caption><p id="d1e1777">Temporal evolution of normalised LEC distribution patterns between windward (C1) and leeward (C2) catchments sharing a common divide (region B defined in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F4"/>c). <bold>(a)</bold> Normalised connectivity maps at 2.5 and 5.5 Myr; the white line represents the drainage-divide position at the current time step. The black dotted line shows the divide position at 2.5 Myr and black arrows its migration direction. Contour lines are defined every 250 m and range between 500 and 1750 m. <bold>(b)</bold> Plots of normalised LEC (grey dots), the average line of LEC within elevational bands (blue lines), and elevation kernel density (red lines) for the entire simulated domain at chosen time intervals. Normalised LEC  for points belonging to the windward and leeward catchments (C1 and C2, respectively) are highlighted. The normalised LEC exhibits a typical pattern, with higher values and broader ranges during the mountain-building phase at middle to high elevations.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=426.791339pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://esurf.copernicus.org/articles/7/895/2019/esurf-7-895-2019-f05.jpg"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e1795">In this experiment, a prevailing northward-directed wind condition creates a specific distribution of rainfall patterns across the mountain range, with precipitation maxima occurring predominantly on windward-facing areas. Induced changes in hydrological regime drive  drainage-divide migration (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F5"/>a) and the development of asymmetric topography <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx46 bib1.bibx2" id="paren.42"/>. Topography on the leeward side (rain shadow area) is formed by tectonic uplift with limited erosion, whereas topography on the windward side is predominantly erosional. Over geological timescales, the differential distribution of rainfall influences the overall topographic evolution of the simulated mountain range. First, it affects river profiles by changing concavity <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx46" id="paren.43"/> and reducing erosional rates on the drier regions. As a consequence, a decrease in discharge produces steeper slopes to compensate for the imposed uniform uplift rate (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F4"/>c). Orographic rain also implies continuous disequilibrium conditions <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx67 bib1.bibx66" id="paren.44"/>,<?pagebreak page900?> affecting river networks through reorganisation and concomitantly changing the topologies and geometries of drainage basins (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F4"/>e).</p>
      <p id="d1e1814">Similar to the uniform precipitation model, we observe a temporal migration of the LEC maximum from the uplifted plateau towards the bottom of the valleys. However, we find some specific features driven by the geomorphic responses to orographic precipitation (as shown by the LEC distribution at steady state between Figs. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F2"/>a  and <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F4"/>d) with a clear correlation between sites with high- or low-connectivity areas and windward- or leeward-facing catchments. It shows how uplift and its effect on regional climate influence landscape connectivity with the development of geographic connections or barriers as topography changes.</p>
      <p id="d1e1821">The study of two specific catchments sharing a common drainage divide further highlights these effects. In Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F5"/>, we note that both leeward and windward catchments exhibit similar hump-shaped patterns of LEC, indicative of mid-elevation peaks, with higher connectivity on the windward-facing area compared to the leeward-facing one. Temporal evolution analysis through the complete orogenic cycle shows optimum landscape connectivity during the mountain-building phase at middle to high elevations as illustrated by the broader ranges of LEC values at 2.5 Myr compared to the ones at 5.5 Myr (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F5"/>b).</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4">
  <label>4</label><title>Discussion</title>
      <p id="d1e1838">The results described above quantify the temporal and spatial evolution of landscape connectivity patterns during a complete orogenic cycle considering both uniform and  orographic precipitation scenarios. In this section, we build upon the work from <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx5 bib1.bibx6" id="text.45"/>. First, we test the influence of different boundary and species niche width conditions on landscape connectivity. Then, we explore the relationship between landscape elevational connectivity and<?pagebreak page901?> biodiversity using a similar metacommunity model as the one proposed in <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx6" id="text.46"/> and discuss the possible roles of geomorphological changes in patterns of species richness. By defining isolated regions as places with low connectivity, we then analyse how they evolve during simulated orogenic cycles.</p>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS1">
  <label>4.1</label><title>Impact of forcing conditions and species niche width on connectivity mapping</title>
      <?pagebreak page902?><p id="d1e1854">In our experimental setting, we have deliberately chosen a simple model of an evolving landscape similar to existing analogue and numerical models <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx8 bib1.bibx7 bib1.bibx67 bib1.bibx51" id="paren.47"/>. Under such  conditions, the resulting landscape is symmetric with the formation of a mountain range composed of four low-angled ridges ending at the four corners of the model. In this section, we slightly modify these initial tectonic boundary conditions and perform a new simulation with outlets along only one of the domain boundaries <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx12" id="paren.48"/>. The other landscape parameters (erodibility value <inline-formula><mml:math id="M94" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">κ</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">e</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, SPL exponents <inline-formula><mml:math id="M95" display="inline"><mml:mi>m</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M96" display="inline"><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>, and hillslope diffusion <inline-formula><mml:math id="M97" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">κ</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">d</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> defined in Sect. 2.3) remain unchanged and the simulated landscape is again purely erosional (similar to the homogeneous model proposed in <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx48" id="altparen.49"/>). Evaluating how LEC will change for constructional landscapes <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx16 bib1.bibx17" id="paren.50"/> requires different tectonic conditions and is beyond the scope of this paper.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F6" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{6}?><label>Figure 6</label><caption><p id="d1e1908">Outputs from the modified uniform precipitation model with only one fixed boundary along the western border of the simulated domain. <bold>(a)</bold> Maps of the evolution of the landscape at three time steps during the growth phase (induced by a uniform uplift of 1 mm yr<inline-formula><mml:math id="M98" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>). Panels <bold>(b)</bold> and <bold>(c)</bold> show the results obtained with two ratios for <inline-formula><mml:math id="M99" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>z</mml:mi><mml:mo>max⁡</mml:mo></mml:msub><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>z</mml:mi><mml:mo>min⁡</mml:mo></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of 0.1 and 0.2, respectively. In both cases, we present on the left the average line of LEC within elevational bands (blue lines) and the elevation kernel density (red lines) for the entire simulated domain at steady state (5 Myr); on the right is the corresponding normalised connectivity map.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=455.244094pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://esurf.copernicus.org/articles/7/895/2019/esurf-7-895-2019-f06.jpg"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e1964">The general pattern of geomorphological evolution under uniform precipitation is presented in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F6"/>a for the first 5 Myr and corresponds to the mountain-building phase. As for the previous cases, the evolution of the experiment involves a growth phase followed by a steady-state phase <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx8 bib1.bibx12" id="paren.51"/>. During the initial plateau uplift (e.g. growth phase), some topographic incisions form along the western open border of the model. As uplift continues, these incisions grow and propagate inward until there is complete dissection of the plateau (third map on the right-hand side of Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F6"/>a). The obtained fluvial landscapes display dendritic networks, and river longitudinal profiles present  a concave upward shape characteristic of bedrock river systems (as for Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F3"/>b).</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F7" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{7}?><label>Figure 7</label><caption><p id="d1e1979">Connectivity results for the regions (R1, R2, and R3) presented in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F6"/>a. Panels <bold>(a)</bold> and <bold>(b)</bold> show the corresponding average line of LEC within elevational bands (blue lines) and the elevation kernel density (red lines) for two species niche width ratios of 0.1 and 0.2. Panel <bold>(c)</bold> presents the normalised connectivity map for the two width ratios and for the three regions.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=497.923228pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://esurf.copernicus.org/articles/7/895/2019/esurf-7-895-2019-f07.jpg"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e1999">To evaluate the impact of these new boundary conditions on connectivity calculation, we compute the LEC at steady state (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F6"/>b) over the entire domain and for three quadrants (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F7"/>). In addition, we test two values of 0.1 and 0.2 for the species niche width ratio (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M100" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>z</mml:mi><mml:mo>max⁡</mml:mo></mml:msub><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>z</mml:mi><mml:mo>min⁡</mml:mo></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) defined in Eq. (<xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="Ch1.E6"/>). As shown in the results (Sect. 3) and for the Swiss Alps in <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx6" id="text.52"/>, the frequency distributions of the elevation are hump-shaped regardless of the spatial extent of the considered domain (red lines representing the entire domain in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F6"/> or three smaller regions as in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F7"/>). From the results presented in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F7"/>, we find that connectivity distribution varies significantly with respect to variations of niche width  <inline-formula><mml:math id="M101" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>. As the niche becomes wider (higher <inline-formula><mml:math id="M102" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>), the connectivity maps (Figs. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F6"/>c and <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F7"/>c) reveal a clear spatial pattern, with valleys and mountain tops characterised by lower LEC <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx6" id="paren.53"/>. As  <inline-formula><mml:math id="M103" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> increases, any point on the map<?pagebreak page903?> is less constrained by elevational barriers, and thus LEC is mostly controlled by the abundance of sites with similar elevation in the simulated domain (i.e. the elevation frequency distribution as shown by the blue lines in Figs. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F6"/>c and <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F7"/>b). <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx6" id="text.54"/> show that for very large  <inline-formula><mml:math id="M104" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>, LEC becomes insensitive to elevation and elevational gradients tend to flatten out.</p>
</sec>
<?pagebreak page904?><sec id="Ch1.S4.SS2">
  <label>4.2</label><title>LEC as a measure of biodiversity</title>
      <p id="d1e2096"><xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx6" id="text.55"/> have shown that when applied to real landscapes, the LEC metric predicts the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M105" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">α</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> diversity simulated by the full metacommunity model well. Here we perform a similar analysis on our simulated  landscape and estimate for both scenarios (uniform and orographic rain) the correlations between LEC and simulated local species richness (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M106" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">α</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> diversity).</p>
      <p id="d1e2115">To do so, we use a zero-sum metacommunity model <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx29" id="paren.56"/> in which local communities (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M107" display="inline"><mml:mi>N</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>) are defined on an regular 2-D elevation mesh. The zero-sum assumption states that each local community is saturated at all times, which means that the total number of individuals <inline-formula><mml:math id="M108" display="inline"><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> in a particular point is constant over time. In such a case and for any given time, the entire region is made of a population of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M109" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>N</mml:mi><mml:mo>⋅</mml:mo><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> individuals, where <inline-formula><mml:math id="M110" display="inline"><mml:mi>N</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> is equivalent to the number of points on the grid. The population number is made of different species which have different elevational niches. Each of these niches describes the competitive ability of particular species with elevation and is defined with a Gaussian function following <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx49" id="text.57"/> <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx6" id="paren.58"/>:
            <disp-formula id="Ch1.E7" content-type="numbered"><label>7</label><mml:math id="M111" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>f</mml:mi><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>z</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>f</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mo>max⁡</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:msup><mml:mi>e</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mstyle scriptlevel="+1"><mml:mfrac><mml:mrow><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>z</mml:mi><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>z</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">opt</mml:mi><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:msup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle></mml:mrow></mml:msup><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>
          with <inline-formula><mml:math id="M112" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>f</mml:mi><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>z</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> the competitive ability of species <inline-formula><mml:math id="M113" display="inline"><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> at elevation <inline-formula><mml:math id="M114" display="inline"><mml:mi>z</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>. The elevation <inline-formula><mml:math id="M115" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>z</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">opt</mml:mi><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is the optimal elevation for which the competitive ability equals <inline-formula><mml:math id="M116" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>f</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mo>max⁡</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M117" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is the niche width for species <inline-formula><mml:math id="M118" display="inline"><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> as defined in Eq. (<xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="Ch1.E6"/>). In addition to the zero-sum assumption, we suppose that all species have the same niche width <inline-formula><mml:math id="M119" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and maximum competitive ability <inline-formula><mml:math id="M120" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>f</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mo>max⁡</mml:mo><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>f</mml:mi><mml:mo>max⁡</mml:mo></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> as well as similar rates of  dispersal, death, and fertility.</p>
      <p id="d1e2350">The ecological interactions between individuals follow the same approach as the one proposed in <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx6" id="text.59"/>. For any given time step and on each local community, a randomly chosen individual dies. Based on the zero-sum assumption, this dead individual needs to be, replaced and two strategies are possible. First, the offspring can come from the pool of individuals living in the vicinity of the local community (i.e. coming from the community itself or from one of the neighbouring ones). In this case, the chosen offspring<?pagebreak page905?> is selected with a probability proportional to the values of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M121" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>f</mml:mi><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>z</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> for all the individuals living in the vicinity of the local community (where <inline-formula><mml:math id="M122" display="inline"><mml:mi>z</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> is the elevation of the considered local community). Second, the offspring is an individual belonging to a new species that does not already exist in the system. This second option is probabilistically selected at every time step and allows us to model both speciation and immigration from external communities <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx29 bib1.bibx13" id="paren.60"/>. When a competitor from a new species enters the system its optimal elevation <inline-formula><mml:math id="M123" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>z</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">opt</mml:mi><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is drawn from a uniform distribution spanning twice the relief of the system to avoid edge effects <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx6" id="paren.61"/>.</p>
      <p id="d1e2402">This metacommunity model is applied on the elevation grids obtained from our landscape evolution model. In all simulations, the system is initially populated by one single species and is run until a statistically steady state is reached (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M124" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">10</mml:mn><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">4</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> generations, where a generation is <inline-formula><mml:math id="M125" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>N</mml:mi><mml:mo>⋅</mml:mo><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> time steps). As in <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx6" id="text.62"/>, we consider periodic boundary conditions. The parameter <inline-formula><mml:math id="M126" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>f</mml:mi><mml:mo>max⁡</mml:mo></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> does not affect the system dynamics and is, without loss of generality, set to 1.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{p}?><fig id="Ch1.F8" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{8}?><label>Figure 8</label><caption><p id="d1e2447">LEC versus local species richness (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M127" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">α</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> diversity) for simulated landscape at steady state (5 Myr) under uniform rainfall <bold>(a)</bold> and orographic precipitation <bold>(b)</bold>. The <inline-formula><mml:math id="M128" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">α</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> diversity patterns result from the zero-sum metacommunity model described below. Correlations between <inline-formula><mml:math id="M129" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">α</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> diversity and LEC are presented (blue dots), as are regression and kernel density fits for each case. We also provide the  resulting Pearson's coefficients for correlation between <inline-formula><mml:math id="M130" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">α</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> diversity and LEC values.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=426.791339pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://esurf.copernicus.org/articles/7/895/2019/esurf-7-895-2019-f08.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e2491">Figure <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F8"/> presents the relationships between calculated LEC and local species richness for the simulated landscapes at steady state. Overall, we have Pearson's correlations (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M131" display="inline"><mml:mi>R</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>) of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M132" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">70</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> %, which is considered to be relatively strong. These results are in agreement with the <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx6" id="text.63"/> study and consolidate the idea that the LEC calculation is able to predict the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M133" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">α</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> diversity well, especially in the case of uniform rainfall. Therefore, if LEC captures the regional variability of community diversity, one can deduce from its distribution the temporal and spatial evolution of species richness.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{p}?><fig id="Ch1.F9" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{9}?><label>Figure 9</label><caption><p id="d1e2525">Temporal and spatial statistical analysis of normalised LEC based on categorical elevation data (defined within six bands of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M134" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>z</mml:mi><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>z</mml:mi><mml:mo>max⁡</mml:mo></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) for both the uniform and orographic precipitation models. <bold>(a)</bold> Violin plots depicting the kernel density estimation of the normalised LEC distribution. White dashed lines in the violin plots show the location of the lower quartile (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M135" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>Q</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) and the upper quartile (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M136" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>Q</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>). Solid white lines define the median (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M137" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>Q</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) of the data set. <bold>(b)</bold> Comparison of the spatial distribution of normalised LEC at 5 Myr for the two considered climatic scenarios. The data used for the statistical analysis presented in panel <bold>(a)</bold> have been extracted from these maps. The considered area corresponds to the highlighted region C defined in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F4"/>d.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=497.923228pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://esurf.copernicus.org/articles/7/895/2019/esurf-7-895-2019-f09.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e2594">We provide in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F9"/> a statistical summary of the LEC evolution for the two climatic scenarios. LEC predicts biodiversity peaks when the landscape reaches a geomorphological steady state, and maximum species richness is observed at mid-elevation (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F9"/>a – <inline-formula><mml:math id="M138" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.7</mml:mn><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo><mml:mi>z</mml:mi><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>z</mml:mi><mml:mo>max⁡</mml:mo></mml:msub><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.9</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) as observed in nature <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx26 bib1.bibx15 bib1.bibx9" id="paren.64"/>. Interestingly, when using a coupled climate–landscape model, windward-facing regions host higher biodiversities. During relaxation phase, when tectonic forcing ceases, the peak in species richness shifts from middle to low elevations (bottom graph in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F9"/>a). From the figure, we infer that mapped areas showing strong connectivity values (i.e. high LEC) within a given elevational band have a direct effect on the biodiversity they host <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx44 bib1.bibx36" id="paren.65"/>. We also hypothesise that these areas represent regions of high local species richness as local communities can be gathered from a more diverse regional pool of species that are fit to live at a similar elevation <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx47" id="paren.66"/>.</p>
      <p id="d1e2636">In summary,  LEC calculation can be used to estimate in a simple way the temporal and spatial evolution of biodiversity distribution induced by changes in landscape structure over geological time.  Based on LEC distribution at steady state, we found that species richness in mountainous landscapes reaches its peak at mid-elevation not only because this is where the maximum surface area available to species is located, but also because species can move up or down to accommodate climate warming or cooling, respectively.</p>
      <p id="d1e2640">There are many biologic and abiotic properties that drive species richness in mountainous landscapes <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx27 bib1.bibx28 bib1.bibx24" id="paren.67"/>. For example,  mountains provide species with a rich variety of environmental conditions over restricted surface areas (e.g. range of temperature, solar irradiation, wind exposure, moisture and rainfall, soils thickness, and composition to cite a few). In this study, we have limited our exploration to the role of morphological changes imposed by uniform tectonic, riverine, and climatic processes, and we found that these changes alone could explain to the 1st order the biodiversity found in mountainous regions.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS3">
  <label>4.3</label><title>Dynamics of geomorphically driven isolation</title>
      <p id="d1e2654">From the LEC values, one can derive geomorphically driven isolation by finding spatial regions of low LEC compared to their surrounding areas. Here, we apply an approach similar to a depression-filling algorithm <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx4" id="paren.68"/>  using the LEC values instead of the elevation. Isolated areas in that sense represent depressions or inwardly draining regions of the LEC map which have no outlet. To prevent coalescence of these isolated regions (i.e. small depressions within bigger ones), one can apply a threshold on the filling limit of the LEC map. Increasing such a threshold produces a smaller number of isolated regions but with larger areas.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F10" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{10}?><label>Figure 10</label><caption><p id="d1e2662">Temporal evolution of the isolating effect of mountain geomorphology derived from LEC computation. The method consists of mapping and integrating over space and time regions of lower connectivities (normalised LEC <inline-formula><mml:math id="M139" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">20</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> %) surrounded by higher ones. <bold>(a)</bold> Analysis of isolated regions for the uniform and orographic precipitation simulations. Each panel presents the mean elevation (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M140" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>z</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">mean</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> – dark grey), LEC (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M141" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">LEC</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">mean</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> – black), and area (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M142" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>A</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">mean</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> – light grey) for the isolated regions as well as the total number of extracted regions (red line) through time. <bold>(b)</bold> Normalised connectivity maps showing for the orographic model the distribution of isolated regions (magenta areas) at three time intervals. The considered maps correspond to the highlighted region C defined in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F4"/>d. Both simulations exhibit a similar trend with an increase in the number of isolated regions during the building phase (shaded blue area) followed by a period of stabilisation and a rapid decrease during the relaxation phase (shaded red area). We note a sharp increase in mean area at 5 Myr attributed to the rapid adjustment of upper valley slopes following the cessation of uplift.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=455.244094pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://esurf.copernicus.org/articles/7/895/2019/esurf-7-895-2019-f10.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e2723">In Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F10"/>, we evaluate through time these areas of low LEC values (normalised LEC below 20 %) and analyse series of metrics: mean LEC, mean area, and mean elevation. Our results show that the competition between mountain building and erosion increases the number of isolated regions during the orogenic phase (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F10"/>a). Orographic precipitation fosters faster isolation than the uniform precipitation model (red line trends in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F10"/>a), especially on the steeper and drier leeward sides (rain shadow zones) of the drainage divides (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F10"/>b). For the uniform rain model, we observe a decrease in the average area of these isolated regions concomitant with catchment stabilisation and the emergence of the steady state (light grey line in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F10"/>a). For both precipitation scenarios, the cessation of tectonic activity at 5 Myr results in a rapid decrease in the number of isolated regions associated with an initial episode of augmentation of mean area that lasts no more than 250 000 years. We attribute this peculiar effect to the fast widening of valley high- and mid-elevation zones related to the adjustment of catchment morphology and induced by the advective slope retreat predominant across the valley heads <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx41" id="paren.69"/>. Hence, our model predicts an increase in isolation during the mountain-building phase and a decrease during the relaxation phase.</p>
      <?pagebreak page907?><p id="d1e2741">Based on the results from Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S4.SS2"/> and as high LEC regions represent – to the 1st order – places of higher biodiversity, we could take the argument further and propose that low LEC areas should potentially correspond to places where species get trapped into isolated refuges, and such ecological niches should favour speciation and endemism.</p>
      <p id="d1e2746">Not surprisingly, it has been found that the potential for isolation increases in more topographically diverse areas <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx1 bib1.bibx25" id="paren.70"/>. In recent years, several studies have shown that isolation induced by uplift and climatic processes plays a central part in shaping biodiversity <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx64 bib1.bibx16" id="paren.71"/>, and the mapping of geomorphically driven low landscape connectivity could potentially highlight these areas of speciation hotspots. Therefore, the LEC calculation could provide an efficient way to identify and manage regions of higher conservation value.</p>
      <p id="d1e2755">Studies have predicted higher endemism at higher elevation as a consequence of increasing isolation with elevation <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx58 bib1.bibx59" id="paren.72"/>. We see a similar trend with high-elevation zones less connected to each other and statistically smaller than lower-elevation ones. However, our results also suggest that low-connectivity regions form fragmented patches that are distributed across the entire elevational range during an orogenic cycle (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M143" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>z</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">mean</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F10"/>a). Several other parameters and mechanisms not accounted for in this study will promote spatial variations in speciation rates, including temperature and biotic interactions <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx22 bib1.bibx10" id="paren.73"/>.  Nevertheless, it shows that when considering the morphological complexity of mountainous landscapes over geological time, zones of low connectivity are<?pagebreak page908?> not distributed continuously over elevation gradients and the associated isolated regions will likely be found at different elevations. Therefore, the prediction of increasing endemism with higher elevation might not always be the rule.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S5" sec-type="conclusions">
  <label>5</label><title>Conclusions</title>
      <p id="d1e2786">This paper presents a methodology to quantify landscape connectivity under tectonic and climatic forcing.  Over geological timescales (millions of years), tectonics and surface processes conspire to transform flat regions into complex dissected mountainous landscapes. We used landscape elevational connectivity (LEC) to measure the connectivity between sites of similar elevations <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx6" id="paren.74"/>. We show that this abiotic parameter is able to account for up to 80 % of the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M144" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">α</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> diversity predicted by a zero-sum metacommunity model <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx29 bib1.bibx49" id="paren.75"/>, and therefore it could potentially explain the 1st-order distribution of biodiversity found in mountainous regions <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx1 bib1.bibx59" id="paren.76"/>. In the future, we can easily improve the predictive capacity of this metric by integrating fitness parameters other than elevation.</p>
      <p id="d1e2805">From the LEC calculation, one can quantify the role of geomorphology in landscape connectivity and topography-driven isolation. As the periodicity of isolation and connection dictates evolutionary outcomes, understanding this dynamic might be used to test models of biological diversification and to understand species distribution and biodiversity patterns through time. Our results suggest that peaks in species richness for mountainous landscapes can be derived from the analysis of the dynamic organisation of geomorphic features as they evolved in response to tectonic, climatic, and erosion processes. These features might be inferred from physiographic metrics such as <inline-formula><mml:math id="M145" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">χ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> maps, in situ observations, river longitudinal profiles, or landscape evolution modelling. We also found that geomorphically driven isolation has the potential to increase rates of speciation over the entire elevational range. This is an important outcome that could potentially lead to the reassessment of the spatial viability of existing conservation sites and could help us improve future conservation planning, policy, and practice <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx38" id="paren.77"/>.</p>
</sec>

      
      </body>
    <back><notes notes-type="codedataavailability"><title>Code and data availability</title>

      <p id="d1e2822">The results and data presented  and discussed in this paper were simulated using the <italic>Badlands</italic> model (<uri>https://badlands.readthedocs.io/en/latest/</uri>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx50" id="altparen.78"/>), and the connectivity maps were obtained from the <italic>bioLEC</italic> Python package (<uri>https://biolec.readthedocs.io/en/latest/</uri>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx52" id="altparen.79"/>). All the model outputs were visualised using the Python Matplotlib library for standard graphics, Seaborn data visualisation library for statistical graphics, and the Paraview software (v5.2.0; <uri>https://www.paraview.org</uri>, last access: 27 September 2019) from Kitware, Sandia National Labs, and CSimSoft for 3-D graphics and 2-D maps.</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="authorcontribution"><title>Author contributions</title>

      <p id="d1e2850">TS developed the code, designed the experiment, and contributed to output analysis and paper writing; PR contributed to output analysis and interpretation, as well as paper writing; EB developed the code and contributed to output analysis, interpretation, and paper writing.</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="competinginterests"><title>Competing interests</title>

      <p id="d1e2856">The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.</p>
  </notes><ack><title>Acknowledgements</title><p id="d1e2862">The authors acknowledge the Sydney Informatics Hub and the University of Sydney's high-performance computing cluster Artemis for providing the high-performance computing resources that contributed to the research results reported within this paper. We thank Phaedra Upton, the anonymous reviewer, and the journal editor for their comments that greatly improved the paper.</p></ack><notes notes-type="reviewstatement"><title>Review statement</title>

      <p id="d1e2867">This paper was edited by Robert Hilton and reviewed by Phaedra Upton and one anonymous referee.</p>
  </notes><ref-list>
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