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  <front>
    <journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">ESurf</journal-id><journal-title-group>
    <journal-title>Earth Surface Dynamics</journal-title>
    <abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">ESurf</abbrev-journal-title><abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Earth Surf. Dynam.</abbrev-journal-title>
  </journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">2196-632X</issn><publisher>
    <publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
    <publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
  </publisher></journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/esurf-9-1-2021</article-id><title-group><article-title>Groundwater erosion of coastal gullies along the Canterbury coast (New
Zealand): a rapid and episodic process controlled by rainfall intensity and<?xmltex \hack{\break}?> substrate variability</article-title><alt-title>Groundwater erosion of coastal gullies</alt-title>
      </title-group><?xmltex \runningtitle{Groundwater erosion of coastal gullies}?><?xmltex \runningauthor{A. Micallef et al.}?>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes" rid="aff1 aff2">
          <name><surname>Micallef</surname><given-names>Aaron</given-names></name>
          <email>amicallef@geomar.de</email>
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9330-0648</ext-link></contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff3">
          <name><surname>Marchis</surname><given-names>Remus</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff1">
          <name><surname>Saadatkhah</surname><given-names>Nader</given-names></name>
          
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7509-269X</ext-link></contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff4">
          <name><surname>Pondthai</surname><given-names>Potpreecha</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff4">
          <name><surname>Everett</surname><given-names>Mark E.</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff5 aff6">
          <name><surname>Avram</surname><given-names>Anca</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff5 aff6">
          <name><surname>Timar-Gabor</surname><given-names>Alida</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff2">
          <name><surname>Cohen</surname><given-names>Denis</given-names></name>
          
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8262-9798</ext-link></contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff2">
          <name><surname>Preca Trapani</surname><given-names>Rachel</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff1">
          <name><surname>Weymer</surname><given-names>Bradley A.</given-names></name>
          
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3762-8056</ext-link></contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff7">
          <name><surname>Wernette</surname><given-names>Phillipe</given-names></name>
          
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8902-5575</ext-link></contrib>
        <aff id="aff1"><label>1</label><institution>GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel, Germany</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff2"><label>2</label><institution>Marine Geology and Seafloor Surveying, Department of Geosciences,
University of Malta, Msida, Malta</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff3"><label>3</label><institution>Department of Geological Sciences, University of Canterbury,
Christchurch, New Zealand</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff4"><label>4</label><institution>Department of Geology and Geophysics, Texas A&amp;M University, Texas, USA</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff5"><label>5</label><institution>Faculty of Environmental Science and Engineering, Babeş-Bolyai
University, Cluj-Napoca, Romania</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff6"><label>6</label><institution>Interdisciplinary Research Institute on Bio-Nano-Sciences,
Babeş-Bolyai University, Cluj-Napoca, Romania</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff7"><label>7</label><institution>School of the Environment, University of Windsor, Windsor, Ontario, Canada</institution>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <author-notes><corresp id="corr1">Aaron Micallef (amicallef@geomar.de)</corresp></author-notes><pub-date><day>8</day><month>January</month><year>2021</year></pub-date>
      
      <volume>9</volume>
      <issue>1</issue>
      <fpage>1</fpage><lpage>18</lpage>
      <history>
        <date date-type="received"><day>14</day><month>April</month><year>2020</year></date>
           <date date-type="rev-request"><day>2</day><month>June</month><year>2020</year></date>
           <date date-type="rev-recd"><day>25</day><month>October</month><year>2020</year></date>
           <date date-type="accepted"><day>12</day><month>November</month><year>2020</year></date>
      </history>
      <permissions>
        <copyright-statement>Copyright: © 2021 Aaron Micallef et al.</copyright-statement>
        <copyright-year>2021</copyright-year>
      <license license-type="open-access"><license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://esurf.copernicus.org/articles/9/1/2021/esurf-9-1-2021.html">This article is available from https://esurf.copernicus.org/articles/9/1/2021/esurf-9-1-2021.html</self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="https://esurf.copernicus.org/articles/9/1/2021/esurf-9-1-2021.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://esurf.copernicus.org/articles/9/1/2021/esurf-9-1-2021.pdf</self-uri>
      <abstract><title>Abstract</title>
    <p id="d1e215">Gully formation has been associated to groundwater seepage in
unconsolidated sand- to gravel-sized sediments. Our understanding of gully
evolution by groundwater seepage mostly relies on experiments and numerical
simulations, and these rarely take into consideration contrasts in lithology and permeability. In addition, process-based observations and detailed instrumental analyses are rare. As a result, we have a poor understanding of the temporal scale of gully formation by groundwater seepage and the influence of geological heterogeneity on their formation. This is particularly the case for coastal gullies, where the role of groundwater in their formation and evolution has rarely been assessed. We address these knowledge gaps along the Canterbury coast of the South Island (New Zealand) by integrating field observations, luminescence dating, multi-temporal unoccupied aerial vehicle and satellite data, time domain electromagnetic data and slope stability modelling. We show that gully formation is a key process shaping the sandy gravel cliffs of the Canterbury coastline. It is an episodic process associated to groundwater flow that occurs once every 227 d on average, when rainfall intensities exceed 40 mm d<inline-formula><mml:math id="M1" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>. The majority of the gullies in a study area southeast (SE) of Ashburton have undergone erosion, predominantly by elongation, during the last 11 years, with the most recent episode occurring 3 years ago. Gullies longer than 200 m are relict features formed by higher groundwater flow and surface erosion <inline-formula><mml:math id="M2" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&gt;</mml:mi><mml:mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> ka ago. Gullies can form at rates of up to 30 m d<inline-formula><mml:math id="M3" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> via two processes, namely the formation of alcoves and tunnels by groundwater seepage, followed by retrogressive slope failure due to undermining and a decrease in shear strength driven by excess pore pressure development. The location of gullies is determined by the occurrence of hydraulically conductive zones, such as relict braided river channels and possibly tunnels, and of sand lenses exposed across sandy gravel cliffs. We also show that the gully planform shape is generally geometrically similar at consecutive stages of evolution. These outcomes will facilitate the reconstruction and prediction of a prevalent erosive process and overlooked geohazard along the Canterbury coastline.</p>
  </abstract>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
<body>
      

<?pagebreak page2?><sec id="Ch1.S1" sec-type="intro">
  <label>1</label><title>Introduction</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S1.SS1">
  <label>1.1</label><title>Coastal gullies</title>
      <p id="d1e269">Gullies can be incised into coastal cliffs and bluffs in a variety of
geologic settings around the world, owing their formation to a complex
interaction of hydrologic, lithospheric, tectonic and atmospheric
processes. While much research has focused on gully formation and evolution
in non-coastal settings in response to changes, such as land cover and use,
natural hazards and/or changes in precipitation, relatively little work has
focused on gully geomorphology and morphodynamics in coastal cliffs and
bluffs. The most commonly accepted mechanism for coastal gully formation is
through concentrated overland flow and knick point migration (Ye et al.,
2013; Leyland and Darby, 2008, 2009; Mackey et al., 2014; Limber and Barnard, 2018). Changes in land cover and use due to agriculture, logging, forest fires and other factors can decrease surface roughness and increase concentrated overland flow, which, given sufficient energy and/or time, can erode a narrow section of coastal cliff and form a
knick point. Depending on the resistive forces (e.g. geology and uplift)
relative to the erosive force of the overland flow, this knick point will
migrate inland over time, incising a gully into the cliff or bluff. Recent
work has focused on modelling coastal gully formation and evolution as
knick point migration (Limber and Barnard, 2018).</p>
      <p id="d1e272">Coastal cliff stability and gully incision can be affected by processes of
concentrated overland flow, quarrying by waves at the base of the cliff and
groundwater discharge (Limber and Barnard, 2018; Kline et al.,
2014), although it is unclear when and where each of these factors is
important  (Collins and Sitar, 2009, 2011). While
overland flow is a common formation mechanism, it is possible to have
coastal gullies form where the cliff is affronted by a beach, which limits
the basal quarrying or notching by waves, and where there is no outward sign
of overland flow. Relatively little attention has been paid to the
potentially important role of groundwater as a driver of coastal gully
formation and evolution, despite the potential for groundwater to affect the
geotechnical properties of coastal cliffs (Collins and Sitar, 2009, 2011).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S1.SS2">
  <label>1.2</label><title>Channel erosion by groundwater seepage</title>
      <p id="d1e283">Groundwater has been implicated as an important geomorphic agent in channel
network development, both on Earth and on Mars (Kochel and Piper,
1986; Higgins, 1984; Dunne, 1990; Malin and Carr, 1999; Harrison and Grimm,
2005; Salese et al., 2019; Abotalib et al., 2016). The classic model entails a channel headwall that lowers the local hydraulic head and focuses
groundwater flow to a seepage face. This leads to upstream erosion by
undercutting, the rate of which is limited by the capacity of seepage water
to transport sediment from the seepage face (Dunne, 1990; Howard and
McLane, 1988; Abrams et al., 2009). Groundwater seepage has been shown to
unambiguously lead to channel formation in unconsolidated sand- to gravel-sized sediments (Lapotre and Lamb, 2018; Dunne, 1990), e.g.
gravel-braided river deposits in Alaska (Sunderlin et al., 2014)
and the Canterbury Plains (Schumm and Phillips, 1986), conglomerates in
the Kalahari (Nash et al., 1994), outwash and alluvial sands in
Florida (Schumm et al., 1995), Martha's Vineyard (Uchupi
and Oldale, 1994) and Vocorocas (Coelho Netto et al., 1988), dune
sand and tephra in South Taranaki (Pillans, 1985), and granodiorite
regolith in the Obara area of Japan (Onda, 1994). In sediments finer
than sands, erosion is typically limited by detachment of the grains at the
seepage face. In silts and clays, the permeability is so low that the
groundwater discharge is often less than that required to overcome the
cohesive forces of the grains (Dunne, 1990). The role of groundwater
seepage and channel formation in bedrock, on the other hand, remains
controversial (Lamb et al., 2006; Pelletier and Baker,
2011).</p>
      <p id="d1e286">Our understanding of channel evolution by groundwater seepage is
predominantly derived from theoretical, experimental and numerical models (Howard, 1995; Lobkovsky et al., 2004; Chu-Agor et al., 2008; Wilson et al.,
2007; Petroff et al., 2011; Pelletier and Baker, 2011; Higgins, 1982). Such
studies suggest that the velocity at which channel heads advance is a
function of the groundwater flux and the capacity of seepage water to transport sediment from the seepage face (Fox et al., 2006; Howard and McLane, 1988; Abrams et al., 2009; Howard, 1988), and that channel head erosion occurs by episodic headwall slumping (Kochel et al., 1985; Howard,
1990). Channels incised by groundwater seepage have been shown to branch at
a characteristic angle of 72<inline-formula><mml:math id="M4" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> at stream tips, which increases to
120<inline-formula><mml:math id="M5" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> near stream junctions  (Devauchelle et al., 2012; Yi et al., 2017), whereas growing indentations competing for draining groundwater results in periodically spaced channels  (Dunne, 1990; Schorghofer et al., 2004). Channel network geometry appears to be determined by the external groundwater flow field rather than flow within the channels themselves  (Devauchelle et al., 2012).</p>
      <p id="d1e307">A number of fundamental questions related to the evolution of channels by
groundwater seepage in unconsolidated sediments remain unanswered. First,
the temporal scale at which channels form is poorly quantified due to the
paucity of process-based observations and detailed instrumental analysis.
Field observations of groundwater processes are rare (e.g. Onda,
1994), primarily due to the difficulty with accessing the headwalls of
active channels, the potentially long timescales involved and the complexity
of the erosive process (Dunne, 1990; Chu-Agor et al., 2008).
Quantitative assessments of channel evolution have relied on experimental
and numerical analyses, but these tend to be based on simplistic assumptions
about flow processes and hydraulic characteristics. Experimental approaches
are based on a range of different methods, limiting comparison of their
outcomes (Nash, 1996). Published erosion rates vary between 2–5 cm per
century (Schumm et al., 1995; Abrams et al., 2009) and 450–1600 m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M6" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> per year (Coelho Netto et al., 1988). Second,<?pagebreak page3?> the influence of geologic heterogeneities on channel evolution is also poorly understood. Lithological strength and permeability contrasts are rarely simulated by experimental and numerical analyses. Third, there are only a few places where the mechanisms by which seepage erosion occurs have been clearly defined (e.g. Abrams et al., 2009). Basic observations and measurements of channel erosion rates and substrate geologic heterogeneities are needed to test and quantify models for channel formation and improve our ability to reconstruct and predict landscape evolution by groundwater-related processes.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S1.SS3">
  <label>1.3</label><title>Objectives</title>
      <p id="d1e327">In this study, we revisited the Canterbury Plains study site (Schumm
and Phillips, 1986) and carried out field observations, geochronological
analyses, repeated remote sensing surveys, near-surface geophysical
surveying and slope stability modelling of coastal gullies to (i) identify
the processes by which groundwater erodes gullies along the coast, (ii)
assess the influence of geological/permeability heterogeneity on the gully
formation process and (iii) quantify the timing of gully erosion and its
key controls.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2">
  <label>2</label><title>Regional setting</title>
      <p id="d1e339">The flat to gently inclined Canterbury Plains, located in the eastern South
Island of New Zealand, extend from sea level up to 400 m above sea level
and cover an area of 185 km by 75 km (Fig. 1a). A series of high-energy
braided rivers emerge from the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M7" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&gt;</mml:mi><mml:mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3500</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> m high Southern Alps and
flow southeastwards to the shoreline  (Kirk, 1991). The plains were
formed by the coalescence of several alluvial fans sourced from the these rivers (Leckie, 2003; Browne and Naish, 2003). The Quaternary sedimentary
sequence comprises a <inline-formula><mml:math id="M8" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&gt;</mml:mi><mml:mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">600</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> m thick succession of cyclically
stacked fluvio-deltaic gravel, sand and mud with associated aeolian deposits
and palaeosols  (Browne and Naish, 2003; Bal, 1996). The gravels
consist of greywacke and represent a variety of channel-fill beds and bar
forms, whereas the isolated bodies of sand are relict bars and abandoned
channels. The interglacial sediments are better sorted and have higher
permeability than the glacial outwash, resulting in a wide range of
hydraulic conductivities (Scott, 1980). New Zealand's largest
groundwater resource is hosted in the gravels down to at least 150 m depth
(Davey, 2006). The upper Quaternary sediments are exposed along a 70 km
long coastline southwest of the Banks Peninsula (Moreton et al., 2002). This coastline is retrograding at approximately 0.5–1 m yr<inline-formula><mml:math id="M9" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> and consists of cliffs fringed by mixed gravel and sand beaches  (Gibb, 1978). The study area is a 2.5 km long stretch of cultivated
coastline located 16 km to the southeast of Ashburton (Fig. 1b). The
coastline within the study area consists of a 15–20 m thick exposure of
poorly sorted and uncemented matrix-supported outwash gravel, which is
capped by up to 1 m of post-glacial loess and modern soil (Berger
et al., 1996). The cliff face is punctuated by <inline-formula><mml:math id="M10" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> m thick
lenses of sand or clean gravel.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F1" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{1}?><label>Figure 1</label><caption><p id="d1e388"><bold>(a)</bold> Digital elevation model of the Canterbury Plains (source – Environment Canterbury), located along the eastern coast of the South Island of New Zealand, showing the location of mapped gullies. The location of figure is shown in the inset. <bold>(b)</bold> Mosaic of aerial photographs of the study area (see <bold>a</bold> for location; source – Environment Canterbury). The location of luminescence dating (optically stimulated luminescence – OSL) samples, G-TEM transects and other figures is shown. <bold>(c–d)</bold> Enlarged sections of the aerial and site photographs of the luminescence-dating sampling sites of NZ13A and NZ14A.</p></caption>
        <?xmltex \igopts{width=341.433071pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://esurf.copernicus.org/articles/9/1/2021/esurf-9-1-2021-f01.png"/>

      </fig>

</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3">
  <label>3</label><title>Materials and methods</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS1">
  <label>3.1</label><title>Data</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS1.SSS1">
  <label>3.1.1</label><title>Field visits</title>
      <p id="d1e430">Site visits were carried out in May 2017 and 2019. During these visits,
geomorphic features of interest were noted and photographed and samples were
collected. Samples included outcropping sediment layers across the cliff
face for grain size analyses, sediments with coating for geochemical
analyses and loess sediments for geochronological analysis (NZ13A and NZ14A;
Fig. 1). The latter were collected from the base of the loess draping the
flanks of the two largest gullies, above the boundary with the underlying
gravels, by hammering stainless steel tubes into the sediment and ensuring
that the material was not exposed to light.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS1.SSS2">
  <label>3.1.2</label><title>Unoccupied aerial vehicle (UAV) surveys</title>
      <p id="d1e441">Unoccupied aerial vehicle (UAV) surveys were carried out using DJI Phantom 4 Pro and DJI Mavic Pro drones. The surveys were carried out after rainfall events and on the following dates: 11 May, 19 and 30 June, 11, 15, 23  and 29 July, 4 and 26 August, 11 and 23 September, and 6, 13 and 30 October 2017. The drones were flown
at an altitude of 40–55 m, a speed of 5 m s<inline-formula><mml:math id="M11" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> and side lap of 65 %–70 %. A total of eight ground control points were selected, and their location and elevation were determined by differential GPS with centimetre-scale horizontal and vertical accuracy. Orthophotos and digital elevation models with a horizontal resolution of 10 cm per pixel were generated from the UAV data using DroneDeploy. The mean distance between the ground control points and the generated orthophoto and model grid cell centres was 0.03 m. Root mean square and bias were used to estimate the vertical accuracy of the digital elevation models (equations in Laporte-Fauret et al., 2019). The root mean square error and bias were 0.05  and 0.03 m, respectively. The model elevations were slightly underestimated (0.1 m).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS1.SSS3">
  <label>3.1.3</label><title>Near-surface geophysics</title>
      <p id="d1e464">Time domain electromagnetic (TEM) measurements were carried out in May 2019
using the Geonics (Canada) G-TEM system (Fig. 1b). The operating principles
of the inductive TEM technique are described in Nabighian and Macnae (1991) and Fitterman (2015). The survey parameters included four turns, a 10 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M12" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 10 m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M13" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> square TX loop and a TX current output of 1 A. The G-TEM was operated in a fixed offset sounding configuration, which is termed “slingram” mode, in which the RX coil was placed 30 m from the centre of the<?pagebreak page4?> TX loop and the TX–RX pair moved together along a linear transect at 5 m station spacing, maintaining the 30 m offset. The maximum depth of investigation of the G-TEM system is given approximately by the following formula:
              <disp-formula id="Ch1.E1" content-type="numbered"><label>1</label><mml:math id="M14" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>d</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">8.94</mml:mn><mml:msup><mml:mi>L</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.4</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ρ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.25</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>
            where <inline-formula><mml:math id="M15" display="inline"><mml:mi>L</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> (metres) is the TX loop size, and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M16" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ρ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M17" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Ω</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> m) is the upper layer resistivity (Geonics, 2016). Setting <inline-formula><mml:math id="M18" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ρ</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> 100 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M19" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Ω</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> m yields a depth of investigation of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M20" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>d</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>71 m, whereas <inline-formula><mml:math id="M21" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ρ</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> 1000 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M22" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Ω</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>m yields <inline-formula><mml:math id="M23" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>d</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> 126 m. Our investigation depth in New Zealand may be slightly greater than these values since the Geonics formula assumes a one-turn TX loop carrying a current of 3 A, whereas we used a more powerful combination of four turns at 1.5 A. At each station, a consistent 1D smooth model of electrical resistivity vs. depth was performed based on the iterative Occam-regularised inversion method (Constable et al., 1987) and using IXG-TEM commercial software (Interpex, 2012). This is a standard 1D TDEM inversion code that has previously been successfully used in coastal
hydrogeophysical studies (e.g. Pondthai et al., 2020).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS1.SSS4">
  <label>3.1.4</label><title>Other data</title>
      <p id="d1e592">Satellite images with a horizontal resolution of 1 m per pixel and dating back to 2004 were obtained from Google Earth. Precipitation records dating back to 1927 were provided by Environment Canterbury. The latter also provided a time series of water level data since 2015 from a 30 m deep well located 10 km to the northeast of the study area.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS2">
  <label>3.2</label><title>Methods</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS2.SSS1">
  <label>3.2.1</label><title>Sample analyses</title>
      <p id="d1e611">Sediment samples were analysed for grain size distribution using sieves
following the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) D0422 protocol. The composition of the coating on selected sediment outcrops within the gullies was determined using X-ray fluorescence.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS2.SSS2">
  <label>3.2.2</label><title>Luminescence dating</title>
      <p id="d1e622">Luminescence dating is a numerical-age technique that uses optically and
thermally sensitive signals measured in the<?pagebreak page5?> form of light emissions in the
constituent minerals that form sediment deposits. Quartz and feldspars are
among the most often used minerals. Sediment ages obtained via luminescence
dating reflect the last exposure of the analysed mineral grains to daylight,
when the resetting (called bleaching) of the previously incorporated
luminescence signal occurs.</p>
      <p id="d1e625">In order to obtain luminescence ages, two types of measurements were
performed. The dose accrued by the crystal from natural radioactivity since
its last exposure to daylight (called the palaeodose) was determined as an
equivalent dose (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M24" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>D</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">e</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>). This was done by measuring the light emission of the crystal upon optical stimulation and matching this emission to signals generated by the exposure to a known dose of radiation given in the laboratory. This is expressed as the amount of absorbed energy per mass of mineral (1 J kg<inline-formula><mml:math id="M25" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup><mml:mo>=</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> 1 Gy – Gray). Radioactivity measurements were carried out on each sample in order to determine the annual dose (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M26" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>D</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">a</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>), which represents the rate at which the environmental dose was delivered to the sample (Gy ka<inline-formula><mml:math id="M27" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>). The age was obtained by dividing the two determined parameters. As low luminescence sensitivity and poor dosimetric characteristics were reported for quartz from sediments in New Zealand (see Preusser et al., 2009, and the references cited therein), we
have used signals from feldspars by the application of infrared stimulation
based on the post-IR-IRSL<inline-formula><mml:math id="M28" display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">225</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> (Buylaert et al., 2009) and post-IR-IRSL<inline-formula><mml:math id="M29" display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">290</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> (Thiel et al., 2011) protocols on polymineralic fine (4–11 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M30" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>m) grains as well as coarse (63–90 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M31" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>m)
potassium feldspars.</p>
      <p id="d1e712">A detailed description of luminescence-dating methodology, including sample
preparation, equivalent dose determination, annual dose determination,
luminescence properties (including residual doses, dose recovery tests and
fading tests), is presented in the Supplement.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS2.SSS3">
  <label>3.2.3</label><title>Morphological change detection</title>
      <p id="d1e723">The method used to measure gully aerial erosion in between surveys entailed
the manual delineation of shapefiles around gully boundaries for each survey
(using orthophotos, digital elevation models and slope gradient maps, in the
case of the UAV data, and satellite images, in the case of the Google Earth
data), the estimation of their areas and the comparison of the latter in
between surveys. The uncertainty inherent in this approach is related to the
digitisation of the gully boundaries. We made sure that a vertex was added
at least every 5 pixels for both the UAV (0.5 m) and Google Earth data (5 m). This ensures that a minimum erosion of 0.25 m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M32" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> (in the case of the UAV data) and 25 m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M33" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> (in the case of the Google Earth data) was
detected.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS2.SSS4">
  <label>3.2.4</label><title>Slope stability modelling</title>
      <p id="d1e752">We developed a slope stability model based on the limit equilibrium and
segmentation strategy of the Bishop method, whereby a soil mass is discretised into vertical slices. The factor of safety <inline-formula><mml:math id="M34" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>F</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">f</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is calculated using the following (Fredlund and Krahn, 1977; Fredlund et al., 1981):
              <disp-formula id="Ch1.E2" content-type="numbered"><label>2</label><mml:math id="M35" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>F</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">f</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>∑</mml:mo><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>c</mml:mi><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">β</mml:mi><mml:mi>cos⁡</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">α</mml:mi><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>N</mml:mi><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mi>u</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">β</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mi>tan⁡</mml:mi><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ϕ</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mi>cos⁡</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">α</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mo>∑</mml:mo><mml:mi>N</mml:mi><mml:mi>sin⁡</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">α</mml:mi><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mo>∑</mml:mo><mml:mi>D</mml:mi><mml:mi>cos⁡</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ω</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>
            where <inline-formula><mml:math id="M36" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>c</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (in kilopascal) is the effective cohesion, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M37" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ϕ</mml:mi><mml:mo>′</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (in degrees) is the effective angle of friction, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M38" display="inline"><mml:mi>u</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> (in kilopascal) is pore water pressure, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M39" display="inline"><mml:mi>D</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> (in kilonewtons) is the concentrated point load, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M40" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">β</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> (in metres)  represents the slice base length, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M41" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ω</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> (in degrees) is the angle between the top part of the slope and surface forces, and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M42" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">α</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> (in degrees) is inclination of the slice base. <inline-formula><mml:math id="M43" display="inline"><mml:mi>N</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> is the normal force acting on the slice base and can be computed by the following:
              <disp-formula id="Ch1.E3" content-type="numbered"><label>3</label><mml:math id="M44" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>N</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mi>W</mml:mi><mml:mi>cos⁡</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">α</mml:mi><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mi>W</mml:mi><mml:mi>sin⁡</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">α</mml:mi><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:mi>D</mml:mi><mml:mi>cos⁡</mml:mi><mml:mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ω</mml:mi><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">α</mml:mi><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">90</mml:mn><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>]</mml:mo><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>
            where <inline-formula><mml:math id="M45" display="inline"><mml:mi>W</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> (in kilonewtons) is the slice weight (unit weight <inline-formula><mml:math id="M46" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">γ</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">s</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (in kilonewtons per cubic metre) <inline-formula><mml:math id="M47" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> volume (in cubic metres)), and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M48" display="inline"><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> is the hydraulic conductivity (in metres per second).</p>
      <p id="d1e1000">We also modelled the groundwater flow and pore pressure distribution within
the soil using the Poisson equation, which is the generalised form of the
Laplace equation (Whitaker, 1986) as follows:
              <disp-formula id="Ch1.E4" content-type="numbered"><label>4</label><mml:math id="M49" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mo>∂</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mi>h</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mo>∂</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mo>∂</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mi>h</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mo>∂</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mi>y</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mi>q</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>
            where <inline-formula><mml:math id="M50" display="inline"><mml:mi>q</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> is the total discharge (in cubic metres per second), <inline-formula><mml:math id="M51" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M52" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> are equal to the hydraulic conductivity (in metres per second) in the horizontal and vertical directions, respectively, and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M53" display="inline"><mml:mi>h</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> is the hydraulic head (in metres).</p>
      <p id="d1e1099">Equation (4) applies to water flow under steady-state and homogeneous
conditions, whereas the following equation is applicable to dynamic and
inhomogeneous conditions:
              <disp-formula id="Ch1.E5" content-type="numbered"><label>5</label><mml:math id="M54" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mo>∂</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mo>∂</mml:mo><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:mfenced open="(" close=")"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>∂</mml:mo><mml:mi>h</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mo>∂</mml:mo><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle></mml:mrow></mml:mfenced><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mo>∂</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mo>∂</mml:mo><mml:mi>y</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:mfenced open="(" close=")"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mi>y</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>∂</mml:mo><mml:mi>h</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mo>∂</mml:mo><mml:mi>y</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle></mml:mrow></mml:mfenced><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mi>q</mml:mi><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>∂</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">θ</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mo>∂</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>
            where <inline-formula><mml:math id="M55" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>∂</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">θ</mml:mi><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mo>∂</mml:mo><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> describes how the volumetric water content changes over the time.</p>
      <?pagebreak page6?><p id="d1e1204">The water transfer theory accounts for transient behaviour, which can be
defined by the following equation (Domenico and Schwartz, 1997):
              <disp-formula id="Ch1.E6" content-type="numbered"><label>6</label><mml:math id="M56" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>M</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">st</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">d</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi>M</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">st</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">d</mml:mi><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>m</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">in</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>m</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">out</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>M</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">s</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>
            where  <inline-formula><mml:math id="M57" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>m</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">in</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is the cumulative mass of water that enters the porous medium, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M58" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>m</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">out</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is equal to the mass of water that leaves the porous medium, and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M59" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>M</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">s</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is the mass source within the representative elementary volume. The rate of increase in the mass of water stored within the representative elementary volume is as follows:
              <disp-formula id="Ch1.E7" content-type="numbered"><label>7</label><mml:math id="M60" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>M</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">st</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>M</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">w</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>M</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">v</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>
            where <inline-formula><mml:math id="M61" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>M</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">w</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M62" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>M</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">v</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> represent the rate of change in liquid water and water vapour, respectively.</p>
      <p id="d1e1342">The relationship between water level and changes in pore water pressure can
be expressed by the following:
              <disp-formula id="Ch1.E8" content-type="numbered"><label>8</label><mml:math id="M63" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>u</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ρ</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">w</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mi>g</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi>h</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">w</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>
            where <inline-formula><mml:math id="M64" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ρ</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">w</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is the water density, and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M65" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>h</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">w</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is the height of the water column.</p>
      <p id="d1e1391">Changes in vertical stress due to changes in pore water pressure can be
represented by the pore water pressure coefficient <inline-formula><mml:math id="M66" display="inline"><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mi>B</mml:mi><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover></mml:math></inline-formula>
(Skempton, 1954), which is defined as follows:
              <disp-formula id="Ch1.E9" content-type="numbered"><label>9</label><mml:math id="M67" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mi>B</mml:mi><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:mi>u</mml:mi><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>
            where <inline-formula><mml:math id="M68" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is the change in the major principal stress,
which is often assumed, for simplicity, to be equal to the change in
vertical stress (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M69" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mi>v</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>). The coefficient then becomes the following:
              <disp-formula id="Ch1.E10" content-type="numbered"><label>10</label><mml:math id="M70" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mi>B</mml:mi><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:mi>u</mml:mi><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mi>v</mml:mi><mml:mo>.</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>
            <inline-formula><mml:math id="M71" display="inline"><mml:mover accent="true"><mml:mi>B</mml:mi><mml:mo mathvariant="normal">‾</mml:mo></mml:mover></mml:math></inline-formula> is a general way of describing pore water conditions in a
slope stability analysis.</p>
      <p id="d1e1493">The mechanical and hydraulic soil properties employed in this model are
listed in Table 1 and were obtained from Dann et al. (2009) and
Aqualinc Research Limited (2007). We modelled two scenarios based on
the available rainfall data (see Sect. 4.4). The first is a 3 d long
intense rainfall event ((I-D)<inline-formula><mml:math id="M72" display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula>) covering the period 20–22 July 2017. The second is a 14 d period with occasional, low-intensity rain ((I-D)<inline-formula><mml:math id="M73" display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">14</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula>) between 21 June and 4 July 2017. Each scenario is modelled for two sandy gravel slopes with different permeabilities – one with a 0.5 m thick sand lens and the other with a 0.5 m thick gravel lens. Both lenses are located at a height of 5 m above sea level. Lateral water inflow and surface water infiltration were estimated from the hydrological model in Micallef et al. (2020). Slope stability modelling and groundwater
analyses were carried out using the Slide2 software package by Rocscience.</p>

<?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><table-wrap id="Ch1.T1" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{1}?><label>Table 1</label><caption><p id="d1e1517">Mechanical and hydraulic soil properties used in slope stability
modelling.</p></caption><oasis:table frame="topbot"><oasis:tgroup cols="7">
     <oasis:colspec colnum="1" colname="col1" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="2" colname="col2" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="3" colname="col3" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="4" colname="col4" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="5" colname="col5" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="6" colname="col6" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="7" colname="col7" align="right"/>
     <oasis:thead>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Soil type</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Unit weight</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">Cohesion</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">Friction</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">Saturated hydraulic</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">Residual water content</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">Saturated water content</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">(kN m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M74" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">(kPa)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">angle (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M75" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">conductivity</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">(m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M76" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M77" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">(m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M78" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M79" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" colname="col3"/>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" colname="col4"/>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" colname="col5">(m d<inline-formula><mml:math id="M80" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" colname="col6"/>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" colname="col7"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M81" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">γ</mml:mi><mml:mi>s</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M82" display="inline"><mml:mi>c</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M83" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">φ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M84" display="inline"><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M85" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">θ</mml:mi><mml:mi>r</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M86" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">θ</mml:mi><mml:mi>s</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:thead>
     <oasis:tbody>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Sand</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">20.5</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">7</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">34.5</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">3.216</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">0.01</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">0.078</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Sandy gravel</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">23</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">8</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">37</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">0.64</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">0.01</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">0.128</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Gravel</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">24</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">4</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">36.5</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">7.376</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">0.016</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">0.142</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:tbody>
   </oasis:tgroup></oasis:table></table-wrap>

</sec>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4">
  <label>4</label><title>Results</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS1">
  <label>4.1</label><title>Gullies along the Canterbury coast – distribution and morphology</title>
      <p id="d1e1845">We have mapped 315 gullies (locally also known as dongas) along 70 km of
the Canterbury coastline (mean of 4.5 gullies per square kilometre of coastline). The spatial distribution of the gullies is clustered (nearest-neighbour ratio of 0.33, with a <inline-formula><mml:math id="M87" display="inline"><mml:mi>z</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> score of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M88" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">22.67</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and a <inline-formula><mml:math id="M89" display="inline"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> value of 0);  the majority of the gullies are located between the Rakaia and Rangitata rivers (Fig. 1a), particularly in the vicinity of the Ashburton River. The heads of many gullies connect to shallow, relict meandering channels (Fig. 2a). Some of these channels are visible in aerial photographs, in spite of the terrain having been worked by farmers (Fig. 2b).</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{p}?><fig id="Ch1.F2"><?xmltex \currentcnt{2}?><label>Figure 2</label><caption><p id="d1e1874"><bold>(a)</bold> Slope gradient map of the study area. Black arrows indicate relict infilled channels. <bold>(b)</bold> Aerial photograph of Coldstream on the Canterbury coast (source – Environment Canterbury). Black arrows indicate relict infilled channels. Yellow arrows indicate gullies. Location shown in Fig. 1a. <bold>(c)</bold> Plot of length vs. width for gullies mapped along the Canterbury coastline.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=233.312598pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://esurf.copernicus.org/articles/9/1/2021/esurf-9-1-2021-f02.png"/>

        </fig>

      <?pagebreak page7?><p id="d1e1891">In plan view, the gullies are predominantly linear to slightly sinuous
(sinuosity of 1–1.3) and characterised by a concave head. In profile, the
gullies have linear, gently sloping (2–10<inline-formula><mml:math id="M90" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>) axes, with a concave
break of slope separating the axis from a steep (up to 70<inline-formula><mml:math id="M91" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>) head.
In cross section, the gullies are U-shaped, with walls of up to 70<inline-formula><mml:math id="M92" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> in slope gradient. The gullies are between 5 and 1134 m long (mean of 116 m) and between 3 and 637 m wide (mean of 56 m). Gullies generally exhibit a constant width with a distance upslope. They have a length-to-width ratio that varies between 1 and 7.9, with a mean of 2 (standard deviation of 0.89; Fig. 2c).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS2">
  <label>4.2</label><title>Field site observations</title>
      <p id="d1e1929">In May 2017, our study area hosted 33 gullies that vary between 15 and 600 m in length (Figs. 1b, 3a). During the site visits, we did not encounter
evidence of surface flow. However, the middle to lower sections of the gully
walls and cliffs were consistently wet. These sections were also
characterised by failure scars and alcoves, particularly above the sandy
lenses. Alcoves were also encountered at the base of gully heads, where they
were wet and up to 1 m deep (Fig. 3e). Some sandy layers outcropping across
the cliff face hosted tunnels (Fig. 3c–d). Above these tunnels,
theatre-shaped scars with a shallow and narrow gully at their base were
observed (Fig. 3c). At the base of the scars, the gully heads and some gully
mouths, we encountered mass movement debris that was occasionally intact and
that predominantly consisted of gravel, sandy gravel and loess (Fig. 3c, h).
Gullies have gravel-covered irregular floors. Whereas the smaller gullies
have a U-shaped cross section, the three longest gullies have gently sloping
V-shaped cross sections, with loess draping their walls (Fig. 3f). Sandy and
clean gravel layers outcropping within the gullies were wet; the former
appeared weathered, whereas the latter were coated by Fe and Mn (Fig. 3g).
Fences were locally seen suspended across a number of gullies (Fig. 3b).</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{p}?><fig id="Ch1.F3"><?xmltex \currentcnt{3}?><label>Figure 3</label><caption><p id="d1e1934"><bold>(a)</bold> Orthophoto map of part of the study area draped on a 3D
digital elevation model. Location shown in Fig. 1b. <bold>(b–h)</bold> Photographs of features of geomorphic interest taken at the study area. The location of sample NZ13A is shown in <bold>(f)</bold>.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=241.848425pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://esurf.copernicus.org/articles/9/1/2021/esurf-9-1-2021-f03.png"/>

        </fig>

<?xmltex \hack{\newpage}?>
</sec>
<?pagebreak page8?><sec id="Ch1.S4.SS3">
  <label>4.3</label><title>Infrared stimulated luminescence ages</title>
      <p id="d1e1961">Four sets of infrared stimulated luminescence ages are presented in Table 2.
The pIRIR<inline-formula><mml:math id="M93" display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">290</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> ages are higher than the ages obtained by applying the
pIRIR<inline-formula><mml:math id="M94" display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">225</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> protocol. The cause of this difference is not yet fully
understood, although it can partially be attributed to the results of the
dose recovery test and the poor bleachability of the pIRIR<inline-formula><mml:math id="M95" display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">290</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> signals
compared to pIRIR<inline-formula><mml:math id="M96" display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">225</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> signals (Buylaert et al., 2011). Considering that no anomalous behaviour of the investigated signals was observed (see the Supplement), we are unable to explain the overestimation of the K-feldspar ages compared to the polymineralic fine-grain ages in the case of NZ13A, especially since the opposite behaviour is observed in the case of sample NZ14A. However, considering a 95 % confidence level, infrared-stimulated luminescence ages obtained using different methods broadly overlap, with the only exception being the pIRIR<inline-formula><mml:math id="M97" display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">225</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> ages obtained on K-feldspars on sample NZ14A, which we regard as an outlier.</p>

<?xmltex \floatpos{p}?><?pagebreak page9?><table-wrap id="Ch1.T2" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{2}?><label>Table 2</label><caption><p id="d1e2012">Summary of the pIRIR<inline-formula><mml:math id="M98" display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">225</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> and pIRIR<inline-formula><mml:math id="M99" display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">290</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> ages obtained on
polymineralic fine grains (4–11 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M100" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>m) and coarse K-feldspars (63–90 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M101" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>m). The infrared stimulated luminescence ages were determined considering 15 % water content. Uncertainties are given at <inline-formula><mml:math id="M102" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, with a 68 % confidence level. Further details are available in the Supplement.</p></caption><oasis:table frame="topbot"><oasis:tgroup cols="5">
     <oasis:colspec colnum="1" colname="col1" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="2" colname="col2" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="3" colname="col3" align="right" colsep="1"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="4" colname="col4" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="5" colname="col5" align="right"/>
     <oasis:thead>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" namest="col2" nameend="col3" align="center" colsep="1">Age (ka) pIRIR<inline-formula><mml:math id="M103" display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">225</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" namest="col4" nameend="col5" align="center">Age (ka) pIRIR<inline-formula><mml:math id="M104" display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">290</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Sample code</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Polymineralic fine</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">K-feldspars</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">Polymineralic</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">K-feldspars</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">grains</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">(63–90 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M105" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>m)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">fine grains</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">(63–90 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M106" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>m)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:thead>
     <oasis:tbody>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">NZ13A</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">16.0 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M107" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1.4</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">20.1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M108" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1.5</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">20.9 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M109" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2.0</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">26.2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M110" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2.1</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">NZ14A</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">4.6 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M111" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.4</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">1.9 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M112" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">6.0 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M113" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.7</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">3.1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M114" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.3</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:tbody>
   </oasis:tgroup></oasis:table></table-wrap>

</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS4">
  <label>4.4</label><title>Morphological changes</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS4.SSS1">
  <label>4.4.1</label><title>Short-term morphological changes</title>
      <p id="d1e2266">By comparing the orthophotos and digital elevation models generated from the
UAV data acquired during the various site visits between May and October
2017, we document the formation of three new gullies (up to 30 m long; Figs. 4e–f) and the enlargement of 30 gullies (primarily by elongation and
occasionally by widening and branching; Fig. 4a–d). The new gullies formed
at locations where there was a small landslide scar in the middle of the
cliff. There was no change in form in three of the gullies. Figure 5 shows the total area eroded between surveys (which amounts to approximately 3273 m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M115" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>), the daily precipitation and the associated changes in water table height. Only three surveys recorded gully erosion. A total of two of these surveys happened soon after rainfall events of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M116" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&gt;</mml:mi><mml:mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">40</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> mm in 1 d (Fig. 5). The most important of these covers the period between 15 and 23 July 2017 when 95 % of the material was removed and the three new gullies were formed (Figs. 4–5). During this period, a total of 153 mm of rain fell (up to 120 mm on 21 July 2017 alone, which was the most intense rainfall event since 1936), resulting in a 1.5 m rise in the water
table. A third survey occurred 6 d after the 21 July 2017 storm,
with 22 mm of rain falling in 1 d. The material eroded from the gullies
was deposited at the base of the cliffs as gravel cones, which were
remodelled by debris flows during the ensuing precipitation events and
subsequently disappeared from the orthophotos.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{p}?><fig id="Ch1.F4" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{4}?><label>Figure 4</label><caption><p id="d1e2291"><bold>(a–d)</bold> Orthophotographs of the study area at the start and end of the UAV surveys, ordered from southwest to northeast. Red lines mark
eroded areas. Location shown in Fig. 1b. Orthophotographs from a part of the study area on <bold>(e)</bold> 15 July 2017 and <bold>(f)</bold> 23 July 2017.
Location shown in <bold>(b)</bold>.</p></caption>
            <?xmltex \igopts{width=497.923228pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://esurf.copernicus.org/articles/9/1/2021/esurf-9-1-2021-f04.png"/>

          </fig>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F5"><?xmltex \currentcnt{5}?><label>Figure 5</label><caption><p id="d1e2313">Daily precipitation (for Ashburton District Council) and groundwater level records (from a well located 10 km northeast of the study area) for the period 1 May to 31 October 2017 (source – Environment Canterbury). The pink lines mark the surveys during which gully erosion was observed (the value in the pink box corresponds to the eroded area in square metres; uncertainty is 0.25 m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M117" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>).</p></caption>
            <?xmltex \igopts{width=241.848425pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://esurf.copernicus.org/articles/9/1/2021/esurf-9-1-2021-f05.png"/>

          </fig>

</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS4.SSS2">
  <label>4.4.2</label><title>Long-term morphological changes</title>
      <p id="d1e2339">For the period 2004–2015, we used satellite imagery to map the formation
of six new gullies and the elongation of 22 gullies. A total of 18 of these erosion episodes are recorded in the image taken on 26 August 2013 (Fig. 6a).
This follows a major rainfall event between 16 and 23 June 2013, when 171 mm of rain fell in 7 d (with up to 51 mm falling in 1 d; Fig. 6b). The other erosion episodes include the five gullies eroded by 28 March 2009, after a storm of 46 mm d<inline-formula><mml:math id="M118" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> on 31 July 2008, and the five gullies eroded by 19 October 2015, after a storm of 43 mm d<inline-formula><mml:math id="M119" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> on 19 June 2015.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F6"><?xmltex \currentcnt{6}?><label>Figure 6</label><caption><p id="d1e2368"><bold>(a)</bold> Satellite imagery of the study area between the 27 March 2004 and 11 March 2016 (source – © Google; Maxar Technologies). Eroded areas are marked by red lines. <bold>(b)</bold> Daily precipitation record for this period for Ashburton District Council (source – Environment Canterbury). The dates on which the satellite imagery was collected are denoted.</p></caption>
            <?xmltex \igopts{width=241.848425pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://esurf.copernicus.org/articles/9/1/2021/esurf-9-1-2021-f06.png"/>

          </fig>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F7" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{7}?><label>Figure 7</label><caption><p id="d1e2384">A 1D inversion result for G-TEM data, shown as squares and diamonds (representing positive and negative responses, respectively), at a
station located 6 m from start of profile May15-1. <bold>(a)</bold> The computed
resistivity depth profile displayed as a curve passing through data points.
<bold>(b)</bold> The best-fit model is marked as the brown line, while the light blue line is the inferred seawater resistivity.</p></caption>
            <?xmltex \igopts{width=341.433071pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://esurf.copernicus.org/articles/9/1/2021/esurf-9-1-2021-f07.png"/>

          </fig>

</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS5">
  <label>4.5</label><title>Geophysical data</title>
      <p id="d1e2409">The location of the G-TEM transects is shown in Fig. 1b. An attempt was made
to invert the G-TEM slingram-mode responses with 30 m TX–RX offset, using a 1D Occam inversion. A representative inversion result is shown
in Fig. 7. The resistivity model is presented in Fig. 7b, whereas
the corresponding model response with the actual data points is shown in Fig. 7a. The best-calculated smooth depth profile clearly does not fit well
with the measured signal, and there is excessive structure in the
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M120" display="inline"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 10–20 m depth range, including the very low resistivity
layer (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M121" display="inline"><mml:mo lspace="0mm">∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 10<inline-formula><mml:math id="M122" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">4</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M123" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Ω</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>m) at depths in excess of
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M124" display="inline"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 12–15 m. The resistivity values between 40 and 100 m depth
are lower than sea water resistivity (0.3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M125" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Ω</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>m), which is not
reasonable. The inability to fit a 1D model to the slingram responses
suggests that the geoelectrical subsurface structure is strongly
heterogeneous within the footprint of the G-TEM transmitter. As a result, we
cannot trust 1D inversions of the slingram-mode data in such a 3D
geological environment. We did not try to use the 1D inversion software to
further analyse and interpret the G-TEM data. However, even though the
individual slingram-mode responses cannot be fitted reliably by a 1D model, we can still analyse the lateral changes in the observed response curves along the slingram profiles to reveal information about subsurface heterogeneity; this is elaborated on below.</p>
      <?pagebreak page10?><p id="d1e2460">Instead of performing 1D inversions, we present time gate plots for all
three transects. A time gate plot is defined as a graph of the observed
G-TEM voltage response, evaluated at a particular time gate, as a function
of a position along a profile. Time gate plots are a useful alternative for
exploring the lateral variability in the G-TEM response along a profile in the event that the sounding curves at individual stations cannot be fitted with 1D models. It is presumed that the variability in a time gate plot is correlated with lateral heterogeneity in the subsurface geoelectrical structure, since a 1D Earth structure would yield no spatial variability in a time gate plot. In general, due to lengthy signal-averaging times, ambient
electromagnetic noise from the environment adds a very small contribution to
TDEM responses, such that any along-profile variations are likely caused by
geological heterogeneity. However, there is not a straightforward
relationship between the magnitude of the TDEM voltage at any given
time gate and the resistivity within a particular subsurface volume. The
situation becomes more complicated since the true Earth is characterised by
multiscale heterogeneity, such that spatial variations in the geology at all
length scales superimpose their individual responses on one another to
produce the final overall TDEM response that is measured. Thus, any analysis
of the spatial variability in a time gate plot, while informative, is
largely qualitative and indicates only a first-order spatial distribution of
causative subsurface structures.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F8" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{8}?><label>Figure 8</label><caption><p id="d1e2465"><bold>(a)</bold> G-TEM slingram response for an electrical model (I), containing a conductive zone at a depth of 10–20 m, and for a model (II), without the conductive zone. First time gate profiles of G-TEM slingram transects of <bold>(b)</bold> May15-1, <bold>(c)</bold> May 15-2 and <bold>(d)</bold> May17-2 are shown. The yellow line marks a slingram transect, the length of which can be determined from the scale bar. Source of background imagery – © Google; Maxar Technologies.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=369.885827pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://esurf.copernicus.org/articles/9/1/2021/esurf-9-1-2021-f08.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e2486">Specifically, the amplitude of the G-TEM slingram response (in units of
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M126" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">10</mml:mn><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">10</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> V m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M127" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>) at the first time gate is plotted as a function of the station number along a profile. Figure 8a displays a 1D model (I) that
contains a conductive layer of 200 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M128" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Ω</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>m between a 10 and 20 m depth in a homogeneous 1000 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M129" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Ω</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>m background. The 1D model (i) is motivated by the inversion results of deep-penetrating 40 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M130" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 40 m TX loop TDEM soundings carried out on top of the cliffs several tens of metres inland  (Weymer et al., 2020), which revealed such a conductive zone at these depths. Unlike the slingram profiles, the deeper-penetrating, larger-loop sounding curves are readily fitted by a 1D model. This model generates a G-TEM slingram response that has a substantially larger ramp-off voltage amplitude at all time gates than the model does (ii) without the conductive layer, as shown in Fig. 8a. Thus, we regard an enhancement in the response at the first time gate as indicative of a conductive zone at depth beneath the slingram station. The spatial analysis of the time gate plots is not a conventional approach in time domain electromagnetics, but it is somewhat analogous to the spatial analysis of the apparent resistivity profiles in frequency domain electromagnetics using terrain conductivity meters  (e.g. Weymer et al., 2016). This is based on the idea that the G-TEM response at a fixed time gate carries information similar to that of a terrain conductivity meter response at a fixed frequency.</p>
      <p id="d1e2536">The first time gate profile of transect May15-1 is located upslope of small
but recently eroded gullies (Fig. 8b). In this figure, the first time gate
profile is a plot as a function of the distance along the transect of the G-TEM ramp-off voltage at time gate number 1, which is the first sampled point of the transient response immediately after the TX current has been switched off. Near the middle of this transect, there is a distinctive peak that is much higher than the background. The peak is <inline-formula><mml:math id="M131" display="inline"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 20–30 m wide, and it appears in a similar fashion on each of the gates 1 through 7 (not shown here), although it cannot be clearly observed after gate 7. Transect May15-2<?pagebreak page11?> is located upslope of recently eroded gullies in the southwest and
relatively less active gullies in the northeast of the investigated area
(Fig. 8c). Lateral variations are evident along the 192 m length of the
profile. The high-amplitude response at the start of the profile (going from
the southwest to the northeast) is followed by a drop in amplitude near the
midpoint of the profile, after which there is continuous fluctuation at
a lower amplitude until the end of the profile. The time gate plots for
gates 2 to 7 remain similar in shape to that of the time gate 1 plot and,
hence, are not shown. After time gate 7, the time gate plots start to lose
coherence due to the low signal-to-noise ratio of the decaying RX voltage at
late times after TX ramp off. The G-TEM slingram profile May17-2 was acquired
upslope of the tributary of a large gully covered by mature vegetation (Fig. 8d). As shown in Sect. 4.4, the size and location of this gully have been persistent over recent years, in contrast to the neighbouring, smaller
gullies that are under active development. Transect May17-2 shows a lower
amplitude response in comparison to the previous two transects (Fig. 8).</p>
      <p id="d1e2546">Based on all three profiles, a general observation that can be made is that
the first time gate amplitude of the slingram response is higher upslope of
the more recently active gullies.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F9" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{9}?><label>Figure 9</label><caption><p id="d1e2551">Model results for a sandy gravel slope with a sand lens. Estimated
pore water pressure and factor of safety after 3 d for the first scenario
((I-D)<inline-formula><mml:math id="M132" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <bold>(a–b)</bold> and 14 d for the second scenario ((I-D)<inline-formula><mml:math id="M133" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">14</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <bold>(c–d)</bold>. <bold>(e)</bold> Plot of rainfall intensity vs. factor of safety for the for first scenario ((I-D)<inline-formula><mml:math id="M134" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> for the slope with sand lens. The results shown are for the end of the simulation for each scenario.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=426.791339pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://esurf.copernicus.org/articles/9/1/2021/esurf-9-1-2021-f09.png"/>

        </fig>

</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS6">
  <label>4.6</label><title>Slope stability modelling</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS6.SSS1">
  <label>4.6.1</label><title>Slope with sand lens</title>
      <p id="d1e2621">The factor of safety of the slope prior to any rainfall event was 2.514.
During the first scenario ((I-D)<inline-formula><mml:math id="M135" display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula>), the factor of safety decreased to
1.371, due to undermining by tunnelling associated to high pore pressures
within the sand lens, and then to 0.614, as a result of a decrease in the
shear strength of the lower slope material due to an increase in pore
pressure (Fig. 9a–b). A rainfall intensity of 40 mm d<inline-formula><mml:math id="M136" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> is required to bring the factor of safety below 1 (Fig. 9e), and up to 4.4 m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M137" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> of water is estimated to have seeped out of the cliff face to erode 1650 m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M138" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> of material. In the case of the second scenario ((I-D)<inline-formula><mml:math id="M139" display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">14</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula>), changes in pore water pressure did not result in either tunnelling or slope failure. This only resulted in a decrease in the effective stress and in the factor of safety (1.216; Fig. 9c–d).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS6.SSS2">
  <label>4.6.2</label><title>Slope with gravel lens</title>
      <p id="d1e2680">The factor of safety of the slope prior to any rainfall event is 1.793. For
the first scenario ((I-D)<inline-formula><mml:math id="M140" display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula>), the factor of safety decreased to 1.166,
and neither tunnelling nor slope failure occurred (Fig. 10a–b). In the case
of the second scenario ((I-D)<inline-formula><mml:math id="M141" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">14</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, the outcome is the same, with the
factor of safety decreasing to just 1.588 (Fig. 10c–d). The factor of
safety does not reach a value lower than 1 for rainfall intensities of up to
120 mm d<inline-formula><mml:math id="M142" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> (Fig. 10e).</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F10" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{10}?><label>Figure 10</label><caption><p id="d1e2718">Model results for sandy gravel slope with gravel lens. Estimated
pore water pressure and factor of safety after 3 d for the first scenario
((I-D)<inline-formula><mml:math id="M143" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <bold>(a–b)</bold> and 14 d for the second scenario ((I-D)<inline-formula><mml:math id="M144" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">14</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <bold>(c–d)</bold>. <bold>(e)</bold> Plot of rainfall intensity vs. factor of safety for the for first scenario ((I-D)<inline-formula><mml:math id="M145" display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula>. The results shown are for the end of the simulation for each scenario.</p></caption>
            <?xmltex \igopts{width=426.791339pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://esurf.copernicus.org/articles/9/1/2021/esurf-9-1-2021-f10.png"/>

          </fig>

</sec>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S5">
  <label>5</label><title>Discussion</title>
      <p id="d1e2781">Gullies are characteristic landforms along the Canterbury coast (Fig. 1a).
They are an important driver of coastal geomorphic change and loss in
agricultural land. In the following sections, we integrate field observations
with the modelling results to infer how coastal gullies are formed<?pagebreak page12?> by
groundwater erosion, the role that lithology and permeability play in gully
initiation and evolution and the temporal scale of gully formation.</p>
<sec id="Ch1.S5.SS1">
  <label>5.1</label><title>Coastal gully formation by groundwater-related processes</title>
      <p id="d1e2791">The Canterbury gullies initiate and evolve via two types of
groundwater-related processes. The first process is the seepage erosion of sand, which leads to the formation of alcoves and tunnels. This inference is based on the exclusive occurrence of tunnels in sandy layers at the study site (Fig. 3c–e). Seepage erosion lowers the overall factor of safety of the
slope, as demonstrated by slope stability model results for the slope with
sand lens scenario, and is a precursor to the second process, which is slope
failure (Fig. 3c). Site observations (Fig. 3h), the UAV data (Fig. 4) and
satellite imagery (Fig. 5) show that gullies primarily evolve by
retrogressive slope failure, which results in the elongation of the gullies
and, to a lesser extent, widening and branching along the gully walls.
According to the slope stability model in Fig. 9a, up to 4.4 m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M146" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> of
seepage water is required to erode 1650 m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M147" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> of sediments, which
contrasts with the inference by Howard (1988) that 100–1000 times
more water than volume of eroded sediment must be discharged in order to
create a sapping valley. We<?pagebreak page14?> infer that wave erosion is responsible for the
removal of the failed material at the gully mouths and the base of the
cliff. Isotropic scaling of length with width (Fig. 2c) suggests that gully
planform shape is generally geometrically similar at consecutive stages of
evolution.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S5.SS2">
  <label>5.2</label><title>Influence of geological/permeability heterogeneity on gully formation</title>
      <p id="d1e2820">Two factors control the location of gullies. The first factor is the
occurrence of sand lenses across a sandy gravel cliff face. This geological
framework is conducive to alcove formation,<?pagebreak page15?> tunnelling and slope failure
(Fig. 3c–e). The higher permeability of the sand and clean gravel lenses,
in comparison to the surrounding sandy gravel (Table 1), facilitates faster
water transfer to the cliff face; this is also corroborated by the
weathering in the sandy layers and Fe and Mn deposits in the clean gravel
layers (Fig. 3g). Alcoves and tunnels only form in the sand lenses; however,
the latter develop higher pore pressures, and sand is easier to
entrain and remove in comparison to clean gravel in view of its lower shear
strength (Table 1). Slope failure only occurs in sandy gravel slopes with
sand lenses (Figs. 9–10). The higher pore pressure developed in the sand
lenses is transferred to the sandy gravel slopes, resulting in a larger
decrease in the shear strength and higher water table in comparison to the
sandy gravel slope with gravel lens.</p>
      <p id="d1e2823">The second factor is a hydraulically conductive zone upslope of the gully.
This inference is supported by the following observations: (i) braided river
channel infills, which tend to comprise highly permeable, coarse-grained
materials (Moreton et al., 2002), lead into the gullies' heads
(Fig. 2a–b); (ii) clustered distribution of gullies between the two braided
rivers with the highest flow rates (Rakaia and Rangitata rivers; Environment Canterbury, 2019; Fig. 1a);  (iii) geophysical observations (Fig. 8). With regards to the G-TEM slingram time gate plots (Fig. 8), we interpret the higher-amplitude responses on the time gate 1 plots that are preferentially located upslope of recently active gullies as being zones of relatively high electrical conductivity in the subsurface at depths of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M148" display="inline"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 10 m. These zones are suggestive of buried groundwater conduits made up of gravel and/or sandy units (Weymer et al., 2020) or tunnels formed by subsurface groundwater flow in sand units. Further analysis of the G-TEM data, including 2D modelling and inversion, is required to ascertain the subsurface hydraulic geometry responsible for the along-profile amplitude variations. This is elaborated on in the Supplement. The above observations confirm the importance of spatial variations in hydrogeological properties as a factor controlling the location of a gully. This had initially been suggested by Dunne (1990) and has been documented for gullies in bedrock environments  (Laity and Malin, 1985; Newell, 1970). Development of gullies downslope of permeable conduits may also explain why most of the erosion entails the elongation of existing gullies rather than formation of new ones (Figs. 4, 6). It also agrees with the results of the experimental modelling by Berhanu et al. (2012), which suggest that channels grow preferentially at their
tip when the groundwater flow is driven by an upstream flow. If seaward-directed groundwater conduits are responsible for the location of
gullies, the G-TEM results predict that, along the Canterbury coast, we
should generally observe active gully development downslope of peaks in
slingram time gate plots. If this is the case, G-TEM could be used to
identify the locations of incipient and even future gully development.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S5.SS3">
  <label>5.3</label><title>Temporal scale of gully formation</title>
      <p id="d1e2841">Morphological changes derived from the time series of UAV data (Figs. 4–5) and satellite imagery (Fig. 6), and the observations of suspended fences across gullies (Fig. 3b), suggest that gully formation is rapid (on daily
timescales) and recent (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M149" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&lt;</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> 3 years ago). It is an episodic process
that occurs after a threshold is exceeded. This threshold entails a rainfall
intensity of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M150" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&gt;</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> 40 mm d<inline-formula><mml:math id="M151" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>, which occurs once every 227 d on average. The threshold value is based on UAV and satellite imagery
observations, which show that gullies form after rainfall events, with an
intensity higher than 40 mm d<inline-formula><mml:math id="M152" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> (Figs. 5, 6), and the plot of the factor of safety with rainfall intensity from the slope stability model for the first scenario ((I-D)<inline-formula><mml:math id="M153" display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula> for the slope with sand lens (Fig. 9). The erosion rate documented in our study area is up to 30 m d<inline-formula><mml:math id="M154" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> (Fig. 4e-f), which is the highest rate documented for gullies formed by groundwater so far.</p>
      <p id="d1e2904">The majority of the gullies in our study area have shown evidence of erosion
in the past 11 years (Figs. 4, 6). The luminescence-dating results (Table 2), however, suggest that the two largest gullies have largely been inactive
during at least the last 2 ka; recent erosion is only documented in small
gullies located in the central section of their mouths (Figs. 4, 6). This
contrasts with the inference by Schumm and Phillips (1986) that they
were formed by the spillage of water from swamps behind the cliffs in the
19th century. We therefore propose that the short gullies (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M155" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&lt;</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> 200 m in length) are recently active features, whereas the largest gullies are relict features that formed as a result of higher groundwater flow, and possibly surface erosion, in the past. The age of sample NZ13A suggests that this may have occurred during the Last Glacial Maximum. Such a difference in age, and possibly formation process, between gullies of different lengths may explain the different cross sectional shape and higher scatter in the plot of length vs. width for the longer gullies (Fig. 2c).</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S6" sec-type="conclusions">
  <label>6</label><title>Conclusions</title>
      <p id="d1e2923">Gully erosion is a prevalent process shaping the Canterbury coast of the
South Island of New Zealand. In this study, we have integrated field
observations, luminescence dating, multi-temporal UAV and satellite data,
time domain electromagnetic surveying and slope stability modelling to
constrain the controlling factors and temporal scales of gully formation.
Our results indicate that gully development in sandy gravel cliffs is a
groundwater-related, episodic process that occurs when rain falls at
intensities of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M156" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&gt;</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> 40 mm d<inline-formula><mml:math id="M157" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>. At the study area, such rainfall events occur at a mean frequency of once every 227 d. Gullies have been developing, primarily by elongation, in the last 11 years, with the latest episode dating to 3 years ago. Gullies form within days, and erosion rates can reach values of up to 30 m d<inline-formula><mml:math id="M158" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>. Gullies longer than 200 m, on the other hand, appear to be relict<?pagebreak page16?> features that formed by higher groundwater flow and surface erosion <inline-formula><mml:math id="M159" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">&gt;</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> 2 ka ago. The key processes responsible for gully development are the formation of alcoves and tunnels in sandy lenses by groundwater seepage erosion, followed by retrogressive slope failure. The latter is a result of undermining and a decrease in shear strength due to excess pore pressure development in the lower part of the slope. The location of the gullies is controlled by the occurrence of hydraulically conductive zones, which comprise relict braided river channels, and possibly tunnels, and sand lenses exposed across the sandy gravel cliff. We also show that gully planform shape is generally geometrically similar at consecutive stages of evolution. The outcomes of our study can improve the reconstruction and prediction of an overlooked geohazard along the Canterbury coastline.</p>
</sec>

      
      </body>
    <back><notes notes-type="codedataavailability"><title>Code and data availability</title>

      <p id="d1e2968">We used DroneDeploy software (<uri>https://www.dronedeploy.com/</uri>, DroneDeploy, 2017), IXG-TEM software (<uri>http://www.interpex.com/</uri>, Interpex, 2020) and the Slide2 slope stability programme (<uri>https://www.rocscience.com/software/slide2</uri>, Rocscience, 2020) in this paper. All data from
this study appear in the tables, figures, main text and the Supplement.</p>
  </notes><app-group>
        <supplementary-material position="anchor"><p id="d1e2980">The supplement related to this article is available online at: <inline-supplementary-material xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1-2021-supplement" xlink:title="pdf">https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1-2021-supplement</inline-supplementary-material>.</p></supplementary-material>
        </app-group><notes notes-type="authorcontribution"><title>Author contributions</title>

      <p id="d1e2989">AM designed the study and drafted the paper, which was revised by all co-authors. AM, RM, PP, ME, BAW and PW participated in the
fieldwork. RM and RPT interpreted the UAV data and satellite imagery.
NS and DC carried out the slope stability modelling. PP and ME
processed the geophysical data. AA and ATG were in charge of the
luminescence dating.</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="competinginterests"><title>Competing interests</title>

      <p id="d1e2995">The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.</p>
  </notes><ack><title>Acknowledgements</title><p id="d1e3001">We are grateful to Robbie Bennett, Clark Fenton and Daniele Spatola for
their assistance during the fieldwork and to Environment Canterbury for the
provision of the data.</p></ack><notes notes-type="financialsupport"><title>Financial support</title>

      <p id="d1e3006">This project has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant nos. MARCAN 677898 and INTERTRAP 678106).
<?xmltex \hack{\newline}?><?xmltex \hack{\newline}?>The article processing charges for this open-access <?xmltex \hack{\newline}?> publication were covered by a Research <?xmltex \hack{\newline}?> Centre of the Helmholtz Association.</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="reviewstatement"><title>Review statement</title>

      <p id="d1e3019">This paper was edited by Claire Masteller and reviewed by two anonymous referees.</p>
  </notes><ref-list>
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<abstract-html><p>Gully formation has been associated to groundwater seepage in
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simulations, and these rarely take into consideration contrasts in lithology and permeability. In addition, process-based observations and detailed instrumental analyses are rare. As a result, we have a poor understanding of the temporal scale of gully formation by groundwater seepage and the influence of geological heterogeneity on their formation. This is particularly the case for coastal gullies, where the role of groundwater in their formation and evolution has rarely been assessed. We address these knowledge gaps along the Canterbury coast of the South Island (New Zealand) by integrating field observations, luminescence dating, multi-temporal unoccupied aerial vehicle and satellite data, time domain electromagnetic data and slope stability modelling. We show that gully formation is a key process shaping the sandy gravel cliffs of the Canterbury coastline. It is an episodic process associated to groundwater flow that occurs once every 227&thinsp;d on average, when rainfall intensities exceed 40&thinsp;mm&thinsp;d<sup>−1</sup>. The majority of the gullies in a study area southeast (SE) of Ashburton have undergone erosion, predominantly by elongation, during the last 11 years, with the most recent episode occurring 3 years ago. Gullies longer than 200&thinsp;m are relict features formed by higher groundwater flow and surface erosion <i>&gt;</i> 2&thinsp;ka ago. Gullies can form at rates of up to 30&thinsp;m&thinsp;d<sup>−1</sup> via two processes, namely the formation of alcoves and tunnels by groundwater seepage, followed by retrogressive slope failure due to undermining and a decrease in shear strength driven by excess pore pressure development. The location of gullies is determined by the occurrence of hydraulically conductive zones, such as relict braided river channels and possibly tunnels, and of sand lenses exposed across sandy gravel cliffs. We also show that the gully planform shape is generally geometrically similar at consecutive stages of evolution. These outcomes will facilitate the reconstruction and prediction of a prevalent erosive process and overlooked geohazard along the Canterbury coastline.</p></abstract-html>
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