the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Biogeomorphic modeling to assess the resilience of tidal-marsh restoration to sea level rise and sediment supply
Jim van Belzen
Christian Schwarz
Wouter Vandenbruwaene
Joris Vanlede
Jean-Philippe Belliard
Sergio Fagherazzi
Tjeerd J. Bouma
Johan van de Koppel
Stijn Temmerman
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- Final revised paper (published on 07 Jun 2022)
- Supplement to the final revised paper
- Preprint (discussion started on 11 Oct 2021)
- Supplement to the preprint
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
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RC1: 'Comment on esurf-2021-66', Anonymous Referee #1, 16 Nov 2021
This paper present a biogeomorphic model applied to a specific tidal marsh restoration project in the Scheldt Estuary.
The authors demonstrate model performance by way of application, comparing modeling results with morphological and ecological features of an active salt marsh located close to the restoration site.
It is demonstrated that different options in the restoration schemed can critically lead to different evolutionary trajectories of the restored marsh, both in terms of morphological and ecological developments in space and time.
The innovative side of the model lies in the fact that it combines different numerical techniques to couple both fine-scale vegetation dynamics and vegetation-flow interactions (occurring at sub metric scales) and the ecomorphodynamic evolution of the overall marsh systems (at km2 scale).I have read the paper very carefully and found it much interesting and very well written.
I only have minor comments that I’d like to submit to the authors before the paper can be published.MAJOR COMMENTS
l.230: It would be interesting to compare the values of SLR rates used here with the IPCC SLR projections for the same study area, in order to put the values used in this study in a proper context.l.295: I am not entirely sure it is correct to refer to O’Brien’s law here. The reason is twofold.
First, the classic O’Brien’s law is derived based on the tidal prism computed within tidal channels (not the over marsh tidal prism as it was done here). Second, the exponent of the power-law relationship in O’Brien’s law is well defined and typically equals ~6/7, which is quite different from the values proposed here (perhaps because of the difference in the way tidal prism is computed, as said before). Herefore, I’d rather refer to a generic tidal prism vs. cross-sectional channel area, without invoking O’Brien’s law.l.365: this is perhaps too big of a step since the propagation of suspended sediment depends not only on the tidal prism but also on well-known processes of sediment advection and dispersion. In fact, sediment transport of suspended sediment is by no means related to the tidal prism, the latter being only related to the channel cross-section as clearly demonstrated by the cited O’Brien’s law, according to which the size (i.e., cross-section) of the channel depends on the flowing tidal prism regardless of the concentration sediments carried in suspension by tidal flows. This applies also to l.544-545.
I’d be curious to know model sensitivity to some of the input parameters, in particular those related to vegetation lateral expansion (e.g., R^(exp)). I think these parameters are critical in determining the evolution of marsh vegetation through time. Also, the authors state that different species have different R^(exp), but looking at table S3 it seems that R^(exp) is held constant for all marsh perennials considered in this study. This would signify, if my interpretation is correct, that middle- and high-marsh species have nearly the same competitive ability, which I doubt is the case in real marshes.
Also, related to this point, I wonder if the grid resolution for vegetation dynamics can be somehow dependent on the imposed R^(exp) and numerical timestep (i.e., should the resolution not exceed a certain threshold for a given R^(exp) and timestep in order to obtain reliable results with respect to vegetation dynamics)?MINOR COMMENTS
l.15: add “restored” before “tidal marshes”
l.17: too generic. Explain why difficult to assess these key questions.
l.18: strange sentence…it looks like you’re applying model by dike breaching.
l.19: add a comma after “transport”
l.24: it affects -> they affect (referred to options)
l.26: to more -> higher
l.26: diversity in terms of what? Morphological? Ecological?
l.39: dams -> damming (?)
l.42: often as –> the
l.53: landwards -> landward
l.63: add a comma after ref to Staver
l.110: misplaced apex in km2
l.225: is determining -> determines
l.339: vegetated -> vegetation
Fig.9: colors are hard to differentiate in b/w printed copy.
l.473: above all -> mostly
l.477: are depending -> depend
l.485: certain -> specific
l.502: that -> thisCitation: https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2021-66-RC1 -
RC2: 'Comment on esurf-2021-66', Anonymous Referee #2, 16 Dec 2021
The authors present an eco-geomorphological model with many interesting and novel features and apply the model to a design of a restoration project consisting of breaching of an existing dyke. The paper is very valuable as an application of state-of-the-art modelling to a specific restoration site with all the associated complications and uncertainties.
A critical feature of the model is that it can predict channel formation within the marsh as a result of the new hydrodynamic configuration due to the dyke breaches. It would be very useful to provide more detail on how the process of channel formation is implemented in the model…is there a threshold values of shear stress? Is that a model parameter that is adjusted or calibrated? How does it compare to other sites/models?
Deposition of sediment and surface accretion is also quite important for the model results and there are a couple of points that would be good to have more information on. The first one is about the biological component of accretion, which includes the incorporation of plant litter into the soil (Morris et al., 2002) and that is not included in the model. It may well be that is not as important in this setting, but a comment on this would be valuable. For example, Breda et al. (2021) showed that the biological accretion can be of similar magnitude than the sediment related accretion. Those two accretion components may have a different behaviour under climate change scenarios.
The other point is the formulation for deposition of fine sediment. Cohesive sediment deposition often involves the determination of a minimum depositional velocity below which fine particles (colloids) remain in suspension (Metha and MacAnally, 2008). The model used in the paper does not have a minimum velocity threshold in its formulation, so it would be good to discuss the implications of such approach.
Breda, A., Saco, P. M., Sandi, S. G., Saintilan, N., Riccardi, G., and Rodríguez, J. F. , 2021: Accretion, retreat and transgression of coastal wetlands experiencing sea-level rise, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 769–786, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-769-2021.
Morris, J. T., Sundareshwar, P. V., Nietch, C. T., Kjerfve, B., and Cahoon, D. R. , 2002: Responses of coastal wetlands to rising sea level, Ecology, 83, 2869–2877, https://doi.org/10.2307/3072022.
Mehta, A. J. and McAnally, W. H. , 2008: Chapter 4: Fine-grained sediment transport, in: Sedimentation Engineering: Processes, Management, Modeling and Practice, edited by: Garcia, M. H., ASCE Manuals and Reports on Engineering Practice, American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), Reston, VA, USA.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2021-66-RC2 -
AC1: 'Comment on esurf-2021-66', Olivier Gourgue, 28 Dec 2021
We thank both referees for their careful review of our manuscript. We hereby provide a detailed response to all their major comments.
Response to Anonymous Referee #1
Comment #1 (on sea level rise rates)
IPCC sea level rise rate projections for the period 2005-2055 at the estuary mouth range between 4.8 and 6.3 mm/yr. These are median projections for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5 (IPCC, 2019). This is very much consistent with the reference value of 6 mm/yr used in our study. However, we also explain in the manuscript that this value of 6 mm/yr rather corresponds to the average rate of mean high-water level rise observed in the Scheldt Estuary over the last century, likely influenced by both global sea level rise and human-induced changes in the geomorphology of the estuary, such as dredging and dike construction (Section 2.3.1). These local IPCC projections also illustrate that our two additional scenarios (i.e., 0 and 12 mm/yr) are rather extreme. We can therefore reasonably assume that our study covers the range of possible future sea level rise rates in the area. We will clarify this in the revised manuscript.
Comment #2 (on O’Brien’s law)
We agree that we should not refer to O’Brien’s law in our analysis of channel cross-section surface area vs. overmarsh tidal prism. To remain consistent with the observations against which we compare our model results, we here follow the approach used by Vandenbruwaene et al. (2013, 2015) who argue that overmarsh tides (i.e., which overtop the mash platform level) are especially relevant in such analysis for tidal marsh channels, because maximum channel flow velocities typically occur when the surrounding platform is flooded and drained (Bayliss-Smith et al., 1979; Pethick, 1980; French and Stoddart, 1992). We will remove all references to O’Brien’s law in the revised manuscript.
Comment #3 (on suspended sediment transport)
We agree and will remove these sentences from the revised manuscript.
Comment #4 (on vegetation input parameters)
We have explored the model sensitivity to various vegetation input parameters, including the lateral expansion rate, but not in a systematic way for the present study. This is a very relevant topic, but we have already addressed it in a previous paper (Schwarz et al., 2018) and we further explore it in another paper in preparation. In general, fast colonizers (characterized by high number of establishing seedlings that produce homogeneous vegetation patterns) favor stabilization of pre-existing channels and consolidation of the landscape configuration, while slow colonizers (characterized by low number of establishing seedlings able to expand laterally, resulting in patchy vegetation patterns) facilitate the formation of new channels and thereby actively facilitates further landscape self-organization (Schwarz et al., 2018).
However, the scope of the present paper is on tidal marsh restoration and how different restoration design options can impact the biogeomorphic development of tidal marshes. That is why our model scenarios focus on real-life restoration design options (i.e., the size of the created tidal inlets), using fixed vegetation parameter values that are representative for the species that are present in the area. Adding model scenarios with various vegetation parameter values would be an interesting theoretical model experiment, but not relevant for real-life marsh restoration, and hence would deviate from the scope of this paper. Nevertheless, for the sake of completeness, we will incorporate some examples as supplementary material of the revised manuscript, which illustrate that vegetation input parameters have rather limited impact on the long-term morphodynamics in the case studied here.
The vegetation module is implemented such as each species can have a different mean expansion rate. In this study, the mean expansion rates for middle-marsh (Scirpus maritimus) and high-marsh (Phragmites australis) vegetation are determined based on remote sensing and literature data (see Table S3). This is pure coincidence if both species end up with the same value. However, that does not mean that both species have the same competitive ability, as the vegetation module is implemented in a hierarchical way (see Section S1.2 and Table 3). Higher-rank species can displace lower-rank species, but not the other way around. Lower-rank species can only colonize after higher-rank species have died off. On the long term, high-marsh vegetation (rank 3) will therefore always outcompete middle-marsh vegetation (rank 2) in its own niche.
The grid resolution for vegetation dynamics is indeed dependent on the imposed expansion rate and numerical timestep. The number of iterations in the vegetation module (i.e., the ratio between the simulated period – one year – and the numerical time step) is determined as a function of the grid resolution and the mean expansion rate, by means of Equations S16 to S19 (supplementary material).
Response to Anonymous Referee #2
Comment #1 (on the threshold value for shear stress)
The critical shear stress for bed erosion is 0.5 N/m2 for the fresh layer (i.e., sediments deposited during the simulation) and 0.8 N/m2 for the compacted layer (i.e., the sediment bed soil already present before marsh restoration; see Table S2). This approach is consistent with a previous study on consolidation of accretional mudflats for the same tidal marsh restoration project (Zhou et al., 2016). We will clarify this in the revised manuscript.
Comment #2 (on the biological component of accretion)
Sediment accretion in marshes of the Scheldt Estuary is dominated by the external supply by tides of suspended sediments, mostly of mineral nature, while organic matter only accounts for about 10% of the measured accretion rates (Temmerman et al., 2004). For this reason, our model does not explicitly simulate organic matter accretion locally produced by vegetation. However, organic matter accretion can be considered as implicitly compensated for by model calibration for total sediment accretion on vegetated platforms (Section 2.4.1). The calibration is indeed based on observed elevation changes, hence total accretion rates, including both mineral and organic contributions. We will clarify this in the revised manuscript.
Comment #3 (on deposition of fine sediments)
The existence of a minimum depositional velocity (or shear stress) below which fine particles remain in suspension is debated in the literature. In our model, we follow one of the well-established arguments that such threshold does not exist, and that it rather represents a threshold for erosion of freshly deposited sediments (Winterwerp, 2007). This approach agrees with field observations in the Chesapeake Bay (Sanford and Halka, 1993) and is often adopted in recent biogeomorphic models (e.g., Adams et al., 2016; Bryan et al., 2017; Mariotti, 2018; Zhang et al., 2019; Brückner et al., 2020). We will clarify this in the supplementary material of the revised manuscript, where the hydro-morphodynamic module is described in detail.
References
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Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2021-66-AC1