Articles | Volume 11, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-899-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-899-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
19 Sep 2023
Research article |
| 19 Sep 2023
| 19 Sep 2023
Estimating surface water availability in high mountain rock slopes using a numerical energy balance model
Matan Ben-Asher
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
EDYTEM laboratory, Université Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, Le
Bourget du Lac, 73376, France
Florence Magnin
EDYTEM laboratory, Université Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, Le
Bourget du Lac, 73376, France
Sebastian Westermann
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Josué Bock
EDYTEM laboratory, Université Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, Le
Bourget du Lac, 73376, France
Emmanuel Malet
EDYTEM laboratory, Université Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, Le
Bourget du Lac, 73376, France
Johan Berthet
Styx 4D, Le Bourget du Lac, France
Ludovic Ravanel
EDYTEM laboratory, Université Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, Le
Bourget du Lac, 73376, France
Philip Deline
EDYTEM laboratory, Université Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, Le
Bourget du Lac, 73376, France
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-150, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-150, 2025
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Permafrost underlies ice-free areas of Antarctica, but its response to long-term warming is unclear due to a limited number of monitoring sites. To address this, we used the CryoGrid model, forced with climate data, to estimate permafrost temperatures and active layer thickness at King Sejong Station since 1950. The results show ground temperatures rising 0.25 °C per decade and the active layer thickening by 2 m. Warming has accelerated since 2015, highlighting the need for continued monitoring.
Feras Abdulsamad, Josué Bock, Florence Magnin, Emmanuel Malet, André Revil, Matan Ben-Asher, Jessy Richard, Pierre-Allain Duvillard, Marios Karaoulis, Thomas Condom, Ludovic Ravanel, and Philip Deline
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1404, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1404, 2024
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In this work, we use the satellite laser altimeter ICESat-2 to retrieve snow depth in areas where snow amounts are still poorly estimated despite the high societal importance. We explore how to update snow models with these observations through algorithms that spatially propagate the information beyond the narrow satellite profiles. The positive results show the potential of this approach for improving snow simulations, both in terms of average snow depth and spatial distribution.
Moritz Langer, Jan Nitzbon, Brian Groenke, Lisa-Marie Assmann, Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Simone Maria Stuenzi, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 18, 363–385, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-363-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-363-2024, 2024
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Using a model that can simulate the evolution of Arctic permafrost over centuries to millennia, we find that post-industrialization permafrost warming has three "hotspots" in NE Canada, N Alaska, and W Siberia. The extent of near-surface permafrost has decreased substantially since 1850, with the largest area losses occurring in the last 50 years. The simulations also show that volcanic eruptions have in some cases counteracted the loss of near-surface permafrost for a few decades.
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The Cryosphere, 17, 5477–5497, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5477-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5477-2023, 2023
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Permafrost (permanently frozen ground) is widespread in the mountains of Norway and Iceland. Several boreholes were drilled after 1999 for long-term permafrost monitoring. We document a strong warming of permafrost, including the development of unfrozen bodies in the permafrost. Warming and degradation of mountain permafrost may lead to more natural hazards.
Esteban Alonso-González, Kristoffer Aalstad, Norbert Pirk, Marco Mazzolini, Désirée Treichler, Paul Leclercq, Sebastian Westermann, Juan Ignacio López-Moreno, and Simon Gascoin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4637–4659, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4637-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4637-2023, 2023
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Here we explore how to improve hyper-resolution (5 m) distributed snowpack simulations using sparse observations, which do not provide information from all the areas of the simulation domain. We propose a new way of propagating information throughout the simulations adapted to the hyper-resolution, which could also be used to improve simulations of other nature. The method has been implemented in an open-source data assimilation tool that is readily accessible to everyone.
Anatoly O. Sinitsyn, Sara Bazin, Rasmus Benestad, Bernd Etzelmüller, Ketil Isaksen, Hanne Kvitsand, Julia Lutz, Andrea L. Popp, Lena Rubensdotter, and Sebastian Westermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2950, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2950, 2023
Preprint archived
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This study looked at under the ground on Svalbard, an archipelago close to the North Pole. We found something very surprising – there is water under the all year around frozen soil. This was not known before. This water could be used for drinking if we manage it carefully. This is important because getting clean drinking water is very difficult in Svalbard, and other Arctic places. Also, because the climate is getting warmer, there might be even more water underground in the future.
Léo C. P. Martin, Sebastian Westermann, Michele Magni, Fanny Brun, Joel Fiddes, Yanbin Lei, Philip Kraaijenbrink, Tamara Mathys, Moritz Langer, Simon Allen, and Walter W. Immerzeel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4409–4436, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4409-2023, 2023
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Across the Tibetan Plateau, many large lakes have been changing level during the last decades as a response to climate change. In high-mountain environments, water fluxes from the land to the lakes are linked to the ground temperature of the land and to the energy fluxes between the ground and the atmosphere, which are modified by climate change. With a numerical model, we test how these water and energy fluxes have changed over the last decades and how they influence the lake level variations.
Juditha Aga, Julia Boike, Moritz Langer, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 17, 4179–4206, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4179-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4179-2023, 2023
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This study presents a new model scheme for simulating ice segregation and thaw consolidation in permafrost environments, depending on ground properties and climatic forcing. It is embedded in the CryoGrid community model, a land surface model for the terrestrial cryosphere. We describe the model physics and functionalities, followed by a model validation and a sensitivity study of controlling factors.
Catharina Dieleman, Philip Deline, Susan Ivy Ochs, Patricia Hug, Jordan Aaron, Marcus Christl, and Naki Akçar
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1873, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1873, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
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Valleys in the Alps are shaped by glaciers, rivers, mass movements, and slope processes. An understanding of such processes is of great importance in hazard mitigation. We focused on the evolution of the Frébouge cone, which is composed of glacial, debris flow, rock avalanche, and snow avalanche deposits. Debris flows started to form the cone prior to ca. 2 ka ago. In addition, the cone was overrun by a 10 Mm3 large rock avalanche at 1.3 ± 0.1 ka and by the Frébouge glacier at 300 ± 40 a.
Brian Groenke, Moritz Langer, Jan Nitzbon, Sebastian Westermann, Guillermo Gallego, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 17, 3505–3533, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3505-2023, 2023
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It is now well known from long-term temperature measurements that Arctic permafrost, i.e., ground that remains continuously frozen for at least 2 years, is warming in response to climate change. Temperature, however, only tells half of the story. In this study, we use computer modeling to better understand how the thawing and freezing of water in the ground affects the way permafrost responds to climate change and what temperature trends can and cannot tell us about how permafrost is changing.
Louise Steffensen Schmidt, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Erin Emily Thomas, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 17, 2941–2963, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2941-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2941-2023, 2023
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Here, we present high-resolution simulations of glacier mass balance (the gain and loss of ice over a year) and runoff on Svalbard from 1991–2022, one of the fastest warming regions in the Arctic. The simulations are created using the CryoGrid community model. We find a small overall loss of mass over the simulation period of −0.08 m yr−1 but with no statistically significant trend. The average runoff was found to be 41 Gt yr−1, with a significant increasing trend of 6.3 Gt per decade.
Justyna Czekirda, Bernd Etzelmüller, Sebastian Westermann, Ketil Isaksen, and Florence Magnin
The Cryosphere, 17, 2725–2754, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2725-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2725-2023, 2023
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We assess spatio-temporal permafrost variations in selected rock walls in Norway over the last 120 years. Ground temperature is modelled using the two-dimensional ground heat flux model CryoGrid 2D along nine profiles. Permafrost probably occurs at most sites. All simulations show increasing ground temperature from the 1980s. Our simulations show that rock wall permafrost with a temperature of −1 °C at 20 m depth could thaw at this depth within 50 years.
Norbert Pirk, Kristoffer Aalstad, Yeliz A. Yilmaz, Astrid Vatne, Andrea L. Popp, Peter Horvath, Anders Bryn, Ane Victoria Vollsnes, Sebastian Westermann, Terje Koren Berntsen, Frode Stordal, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
Biogeosciences, 20, 2031–2047, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2031-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2031-2023, 2023
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We measured the land–atmosphere exchange of CO2 and water vapor in alpine Norway over 3 years. The extremely snow-rich conditions in 2020 reduced the total annual evapotranspiration to 50 % and reduced the growing-season carbon assimilation to turn the ecosystem from a moderate annual carbon sink to an even stronger source. Our analysis suggests that snow cover anomalies are driving the most consequential short-term responses in this ecosystem’s functioning.
Sebastian Westermann, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, Johanna Scheer, Kristoffer Aalstad, Juditha Aga, Nitin Chaudhary, Bernd Etzelmüller, Simon Filhol, Andreas Kääb, Cas Renette, Louise Steffensen Schmidt, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Robin B. Zweigel, Léo Martin, Sarah Morard, Matan Ben-Asher, Michael Angelopoulos, Julia Boike, Brian Groenke, Frederieke Miesner, Jan Nitzbon, Paul Overduin, Simone M. Stuenzi, and Moritz Langer
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2607–2647, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2607-2023, 2023
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The CryoGrid community model is a new tool for simulating ground temperatures and the water and ice balance in cold regions. It is a modular design, which makes it possible to test different schemes to simulate, for example, permafrost ground in an efficient way. The model contains tools to simulate frozen and unfrozen ground, snow, glaciers, and other massive ice bodies, as well as water bodies.
Cas Renette, Kristoffer Aalstad, Juditha Aga, Robin Benjamin Zweigel, Bernd Etzelmüller, Karianne Staalesen Lilleøren, Ketil Isaksen, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 33–50, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-33-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-33-2023, 2023
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One of the reasons for lower ground temperatures in coarse, blocky terrain is a low or varying soil moisture content, which most permafrost modelling studies did not take into account. We used the CryoGrid community model to successfully simulate this effect and found markedly lower temperatures in well-drained, blocky deposits compared to other set-ups. The inclusion of this drainage effect is another step towards a better model representation of blocky mountain terrain in permafrost regions.
Norbert Pirk, Kristoffer Aalstad, Sebastian Westermann, Astrid Vatne, Alouette van Hove, Lena Merete Tallaksen, Massimo Cassiani, and Gabriel Katul
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 7293–7314, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-7293-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-7293-2022, 2022
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In this study, we show how sparse and noisy drone measurements can be combined with an ensemble of turbulence-resolving wind simulations to estimate uncertainty-aware surface energy exchange. We demonstrate the feasibility of this drone data assimilation framework in a series of synthetic and real-world experiments. This new framework can, in future, be applied to estimate energy and gas exchange in heterogeneous landscapes more representatively than conventional methods.
Suvrat Kaushik, Ludovic Ravanel, Florence Magnin, Yajing Yan, Emmanuel Trouve, and Diego Cusicanqui
The Cryosphere, 16, 4251–4271, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4251-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4251-2022, 2022
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Climate change impacts all parts of the cryosphere but most importantly the smaller ice bodies like ice aprons (IAs). This study is the first attempt on a regional scale to assess the impacts of the changing climate on these small but very important ice bodies. Our study shows that IAs have consistently lost mass over the past decades. The effects of climate variables, particularly temperature and precipitation and topographic factors, were analysed on the loss of IA area.
Juri Palmtag, Jaroslav Obu, Peter Kuhry, Andreas Richter, Matthias B. Siewert, Niels Weiss, Sebastian Westermann, and Gustaf Hugelius
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4095–4110, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4095-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4095-2022, 2022
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The northern permafrost region covers 22 % of the Northern Hemisphere and holds almost twice as much carbon as the atmosphere. This paper presents data from 651 soil pedons encompassing more than 6500 samples from 16 different study areas across the northern permafrost region. We use this dataset together with ESA's global land cover dataset to estimate soil organic carbon and total nitrogen storage up to 300 cm soil depth, with estimated values of 813 Pg for carbon and 55 Pg for nitrogen.
Josué Bock, Jan Kaiser, Max Thomas, Andreas Bott, and Roland von Glasow
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5807–5828, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5807-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5807-2022, 2022
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MISTRA-v9.0 is an atmospheric boundary layer chemistry model. The model includes a detailed particle description with regards to the microphysics, gas–particle interactions, and liquid phase chemistry within particles. Version 9.0 is the first release of MISTRA as an open-source community model. This paper presents a thorough description of the model characteristics and components. We show some examples of simulations reproducing previous studies with MISTRA with good consistency.
S. Kaushik, S. Leinss, L. Ravanel, E. Trouvé, Y. Yan, and F. Magnin
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., V-3-2022, 325–332, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-3-2022-325-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-3-2022-325-2022, 2022
Noah D. Smith, Eleanor J. Burke, Kjetil Schanke Aas, Inge H. J. Althuizen, Julia Boike, Casper Tai Christiansen, Bernd Etzelmüller, Thomas Friborg, Hanna Lee, Heather Rumbold, Rachael H. Turton, Sebastian Westermann, and Sarah E. Chadburn
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3603–3639, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3603-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3603-2022, 2022
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The Arctic has large areas of small mounds that are caused by ice lifting up the soil. Snow blown by wind gathers in hollows next to these mounds, insulating them in winter. The hollows tend to be wetter, and thus the soil absorbs more heat in summer. The warm wet soil in the hollows decomposes, releasing methane. We have made a model of this, and we have tested how it behaves and whether it looks like sites in Scandinavia and Siberia. Sometimes we get more methane than a model without mounds.
Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, Angela V. Gallego-Sala, Noah D. Smith, M. Syndonia Bret-Harte, Dan J. Charman, Julia Drewer, Colin W. Edgar, Eugenie S. Euskirchen, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Yao Gao, Mahdi Nakhavali, Włodzimierz Pawlak, Edward A. G. Schuur, and Sebastian Westermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1633–1657, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1633-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1633-2022, 2022
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We present a new method to include peatlands in an Earth system model (ESM). Peatlands store huge amounts of carbon that accumulates very slowly but that can be rapidly destabilised, emitting greenhouse gases. Our model captures the dynamic nature of peat by simulating the change in surface height and physical properties of the soil as carbon is added or decomposed. Thus, we model, for the first time in an ESM, peat dynamics and its threshold behaviours that can lead to destabilisation.
Jacques Mourey, Pascal Lacroix, Pierre-Allain Duvillard, Guilhem Marsy, Marco Marcer, Emmanuel Malet, and Ludovic Ravanel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 445–460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-445-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-445-2022, 2022
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More frequent rockfalls in high alpine environments due to climate change are a growing threat to mountaineers. This hazard is particularly important on the classic route up Mont Blanc. Our results show that rockfalls are most frequent during snowmelt periods and the warmest hours of the day, and that mountaineers do not adapt to the local rockfall hazard when planning their ascent. Disseminating the knowledge acquired from our study caused management measures to be implemented for the route.
Bernd Etzelmüller, Justyna Czekirda, Florence Magnin, Pierre-Allain Duvillard, Ludovic Ravanel, Emanuelle Malet, Andreas Aspaas, Lene Kristensen, Ingrid Skrede, Gudrun D. Majala, Benjamin Jacobs, Johannes Leinauer, Christian Hauck, Christin Hilbich, Martina Böhme, Reginald Hermanns, Harald Ø. Eriksen, Tom Rune Lauknes, Michael Krautblatter, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 97–129, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-97-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-97-2022, 2022
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This paper is a multi-authored study documenting the possible existence of permafrost in permanently monitored rockslides in Norway for the first time by combining a multitude of field data, including geophysical surveys in rock walls. The paper discusses the possible role of thermal regime and rockslide movement, and it evaluates the possible impact of atmospheric warming on rockslide dynamics in Norwegian mountains.
Léo C. P. Martin, Jan Nitzbon, Johanna Scheer, Kjetil S. Aas, Trond Eiken, Moritz Langer, Simon Filhol, Bernd Etzelmüller, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 15, 3423–3442, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3423-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3423-2021, 2021
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It is important to understand how permafrost landscapes respond to climate changes because their thaw can contribute to global warming. We investigate how a common permafrost morphology degrades using both field observations of the surface elevation and numerical modeling. We show that numerical models accounting for topographic changes related to permafrost degradation can reproduce the observed changes in nature and help us understand how parameters such as snow influence this phenomenon.
Josué Bock, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Manabu Abe, Jane P. Mulcahy, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Jörg Schwinger, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Jerry Tjiputra, Marco van Hulten, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Roland Séférian
Biogeosciences, 18, 3823–3860, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3823-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3823-2021, 2021
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In this study we analyse surface ocean dimethylsulfide (DMS) concentration and flux to the atmosphere from four CMIP6 Earth system models over the historical and ssp585 simulations.
Our analysis of contemporary (1980–2009) climatologies shows that models better reproduce observations in mid to high latitudes. The models disagree on the sign of the trend of the global DMS flux from 1980 onwards. The models agree on a positive trend of DMS over polar latitudes following sea-ice retreat dynamics.
S. Kaushik, L. Ravanel, F. Magnin, Y. Yan, E. Trouve, and D. Cusicanqui
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B3-2021, 469–475, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B3-2021-469-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B3-2021-469-2021, 2021
Juditha Undine Schmidt, Bernd Etzelmüller, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Florence Magnin, Julia Boike, Moritz Langer, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 15, 2491–2509, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2491-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2491-2021, 2021
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This study presents rock surface temperatures (RSTs) of steep high-Arctic rock walls on Svalbard from 2016 to 2020. The field data show that coastal cliffs are characterized by warmer RSTs than inland locations during winter seasons. By running model simulations, we analyze factors leading to that effect, calculate the surface energy balance and simulate different future scenarios. Both field data and model results can contribute to a further understanding of RST in high-Arctic rock walls.
Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Hanna Lee, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, Sebastian Westermann, Vladimir Romanovsky, Scott Lamoureux, Donald A. Walker, Sarah Chadburn, Erin Trochim, Lei Cai, Jan Nitzbon, Stephan Jacobi, and Moritz Langer
The Cryosphere, 15, 2451–2471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2451-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2451-2021, 2021
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Climate warming puts infrastructure built on permafrost at risk of failure. There is a growing need for appropriate model-based risk assessments. Here we present a modelling study and show an exemplary case of how a gravel road in a cold permafrost environment in Alaska might suffer from degrading permafrost under a scenario of intense climate warming. We use this case study to discuss the broader-scale applicability of our model for simulating future Arctic infrastructure failure.
Jan Nitzbon, Moritz Langer, Léo C. P. Martin, Sebastian Westermann, Thomas Schneider von Deimling, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 15, 1399–1422, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1399-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1399-2021, 2021
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We used a numerical model to investigate how small-scale landscape heterogeneities affect permafrost thaw under climate-warming scenarios. Our results show that representing small-scale heterogeneities in the model can decide whether a landscape is water-logged or well-drained in the future. This in turn affects how fast permafrost thaws under warming. Our research emphasizes the importance of considering small-scale processes in model assessments of permafrost thaw under climate change.
Simone Maria Stuenzi, Julia Boike, William Cable, Ulrike Herzschuh, Stefan Kruse, Luidmila A. Pestryakova, Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Sebastian Westermann, Evgenii S. Zakharov, and Moritz Langer
Biogeosciences, 18, 343–365, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-343-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-343-2021, 2021
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Boreal forests in eastern Siberia are an essential component of global climate patterns. We use a physically based model and field measurements to study the interactions between forests, permanently frozen ground and the atmosphere. We find that forests exert a strong control on the thermal state of permafrost through changing snow cover dynamics and altering the surface energy balance, through absorbing most of the incoming solar radiation and suppressing below-canopy turbulent fluxes.
Lei Cai, Hanna Lee, Kjetil Schanke Aas, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 14, 4611–4626, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4611-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4611-2020, 2020
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A sub-grid representation of excess ground ice in the Community Land Model (CLM) is developed as novel progress in modeling permafrost thaw and its impacts under the warming climate. The modeled permafrost degradation with sub-grid excess ice follows the pathway that continuous permafrost transforms into discontinuous permafrost before it disappears, including surface subsidence and talik formation, which are highly permafrost-relevant landscape changes excluded from most land models.
Jaroslav Obu, Sebastian Westermann, Gonçalo Vieira, Andrey Abramov, Megan Ruby Balks, Annett Bartsch, Filip Hrbáček, Andreas Kääb, and Miguel Ramos
The Cryosphere, 14, 497–519, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-497-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-497-2020, 2020
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Little is known about permafrost in the Antarctic outside of the few research stations. We used a simple equilibrium permafrost model to estimate permafrost temperatures in the whole Antarctic. The lowest permafrost temperature on Earth is −36 °C in the Queen Elizabeth Range in the Transantarctic Mountains. Temperatures are commonly between −23 and −18 °C in mountainous areas rising above the Antarctic Ice Sheet, between −14 and −8 °C in coastal areas, and up to 0 °C on the Antarctic Peninsula.
Joel Fiddes, Kristoffer Aalstad, and Sebastian Westermann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4717–4736, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4717-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4717-2019, 2019
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In this paper we address one of the big challenges in snow hydrology, namely the accurate simulation of the seasonal snowpack in ungauged regions. We do this by assimilating satellite observations of snow cover into a modelling framework. Importantly (and a novelty of the paper), we include a clustering approach that permits highly efficient ensemble simulations. Efficiency gains and dependency on purely global datasets, means that this method can be applied over large areas anywhere on Earth.
Florence Magnin, Bernd Etzelmüller, Sebastian Westermann, Ketil Isaksen, Paula Hilger, and Reginald L. Hermanns
Earth Surf. Dynam., 7, 1019–1040, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-1019-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-1019-2019, 2019
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This study proposes the first permafrost (i.e. ground with temperature permanently < 0 °C) map covering the steep rock slopes of Norway. It was created by using rock temperature data collected at the near surface of 25 rock walls spread across the country between 2010 and 2018. The map shows that permafrost mostly exists above 1300–1400 m a.s.l. in southern Norway and close to sea level in northern Norway. The results have strong potential for the study of rock wall sliding and failure.
Lei Cai, Hanna Lee, Sebastian Westermann, and Kjetil Schanke Aas
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-230, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-230, 2019
Preprint withdrawn
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We develop a sub-grid representation of excess ground ice in the Community Land Model (CLM) by adding three landunits to the original CLM sub-grid hierarchy, in order to prescribe three different excess ice conditions in one grid cell. Single-grid simulations verify the potential of the model development on better projecting excess ice melt in a warming climate. Global simulations recommend the proper way of applying the model development with the existing excess ice dataset.
Jan Nitzbon, Moritz Langer, Sebastian Westermann, Léo Martin, Kjetil Schanke Aas, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 13, 1089–1123, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1089-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1089-2019, 2019
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We studied the stability of ice wedges (massive bodies of ground ice in permafrost) under recent climatic conditions in the Lena River delta of northern Siberia. For this we used a novel modelling approach that takes into account lateral transport of heat, water, and snow and the subsidence of the ground surface due to melting of ground ice. We found that wetter conditions have a destabilizing effect on the ice wedges and associated our simulation results with observations from the study area.
Kjetil S. Aas, Léo Martin, Jan Nitzbon, Moritz Langer, Julia Boike, Hanna Lee, Terje K. Berntsen, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 13, 591–609, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-591-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-591-2019, 2019
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Many permafrost landscapes contain large amounts of excess ground ice, which gives rise to small-scale elevation differences. This results in lateral fluxes of snow, water, and heat, which we investigate and show how it can be accounted for in large-scale models. Using a novel model technique which can account for these differences, we are able to model both the current state of permafrost and how these landscapes change as permafrost thaws, in a way that could not previously be achieved.
Julia Boike, Inge Juszak, Stephan Lange, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Pier Paul Overduin, Kurt Roth, Olaf Ippisch, Niko Bornemann, Lielle Stern, Isabelle Gouttevin, Ernst Hauber, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 355–390, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-355-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-355-2018, 2018
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A 20-year data record from the Bayelva site at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, is presented on meteorology, energy balance components, surface and subsurface observations. This paper presents the data set, instrumentation, calibration, processing and data quality control. The data show that mean annual, summer and winter soil temperature data from shallow to deeper depths have been warming over the period of record, indicating the degradation and loss of permafrost at this site.
Kristoffer Aalstad, Sebastian Westermann, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Julia Boike, and Laurent Bertino
The Cryosphere, 12, 247–270, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-247-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-247-2018, 2018
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We demonstrate how snow cover data from satellites can be used to constrain estimates of snow distributions at sites in the Arctic. In this effort, we make use of data assimilation to combine the information contained in the snow cover data with a simple snow model. By comparing our snow distribution estimates to independent observations, we find that this method performs favorably. Being modular, this method could be applied to other areas as a component of a larger reanalysis system.
Sarah E. Chadburn, Gerhard Krinner, Philipp Porada, Annett Bartsch, Christian Beer, Luca Belelli Marchesini, Julia Boike, Altug Ekici, Bo Elberling, Thomas Friborg, Gustaf Hugelius, Margareta Johansson, Peter Kuhry, Lars Kutzbach, Moritz Langer, Magnus Lund, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Shushi Peng, Ko Van Huissteden, Tao Wang, Sebastian Westermann, Dan Zhu, and Eleanor J. Burke
Biogeosciences, 14, 5143–5169, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5143-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5143-2017, 2017
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Earth system models (ESMs) are our main tools for understanding future climate. The Arctic is important for the future carbon cycle, particularly due to the large carbon stocks in permafrost. We evaluated the performance of the land component of three major ESMs at Arctic tundra sites, focusing on the fluxes and stocks of carbon.
We show that the next steps for model improvement are to better represent vegetation dynamics, to include mosses and to improve below-ground carbon cycle processes.
Florence Magnin, Jean-Yves Josnin, Ludovic Ravanel, Julien Pergaud, Benjamin Pohl, and Philip Deline
The Cryosphere, 11, 1813–1834, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1813-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1813-2017, 2017
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Permafrost degradation in high mountain rock walls provokes destabilisation, constituting a threat for human activities. In the Mont Blanc massif, more than 700 rockfalls have been inventoried in recent years (2003, 2007–2015). Understanding permafrost evolution is thus crucial to sustain this densely populated area. This study investigates the changes in rock wall permafrost from 1850 to the recent period and possible optimistic or pessimistic evolutions during the 21st century.
Sebastian Westermann, Maria Peter, Moritz Langer, Georg Schwamborn, Lutz Schirrmeister, Bernd Etzelmüller, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 11, 1441–1463, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1441-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1441-2017, 2017
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We demonstrate a remote-sensing-based scheme estimating the evolution of ground temperature and active layer thickness by means of a ground thermal model. A comparison to in situ observations from the Lena River delta in Siberia indicates that the model is generally capable of reproducing the annual temperature regime and seasonal thawing of the ground. The approach could hence be a first step towards remote detection of ground thermal conditions in permafrost areas.
Amund F. Borge, Sebastian Westermann, Ingvild Solheim, and Bernd Etzelmüller
The Cryosphere, 11, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1-2017, 2017
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Palsas and peat plateaus are permafrost landforms in subarctic mires which constitute sensitive ecosystems with strong significance for vegetation, wildlife, hydrology and carbon cycle. We have systematically mapped the occurrence of palsas and peat plateaus in northern Norway by interpretation of aerial images from the 1950s until today. The results show that about half of the area of palsas and peat plateaus has disappeared due to lateral erosion and melting of ground ice in the last 50 years.
Josué Bock, Joël Savarino, and Ghislain Picard
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 12531–12550, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12531-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12531-2016, 2016
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We develop a physically based parameterisation of the co-condensation process. Our model includes solid-state diffusion within a snow grain. It reproduces with good agreement the nitrate measurement in surface snow. Winter and summer concentrations are driven respectively by thermodynamic equilibrium and co-condensation. Adsorbed nitrate likely accounts for a minor part. This work shows that co-condensation is required to explain the chemical composition of snow undergoing temperature gradient.
Kjersti Gisnås, Sebastian Westermann, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Kjetil Melvold, and Bernd Etzelmüller
The Cryosphere, 10, 1201–1215, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1201-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1201-2016, 2016
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In wind exposed areas snow redistribution results in large spatial variability in ground temperatures. In these areas, the ground temperature of a grid cell must be determined based on the distribution, and not the average, of snow depths. We employ distribution functions of snow in a regional permafrost model, showing highly improved representation of ground temperatures. By including snow distributions, we find the permafrost area to be nearly twice as large as what is modelled without.
S. Westermann, M. Langer, J. Boike, M. Heikenfeld, M. Peter, B. Etzelmüller, and G. Krinner
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 523–546, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-523-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-523-2016, 2016
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Thawing of permafrost is governed by a complex interplay of different processes, of which only conductive heat transfer is taken into account in most model studies. We present a new land-surface scheme designed for permafrost applications, CryoGrid 3, which constitutes a flexible platform to explore new parameterizations for a range of permafrost processes.
S. Westermann, T. I. Østby, K. Gisnås, T. V. Schuler, and B. Etzelmüller
The Cryosphere, 9, 1303–1319, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1303-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1303-2015, 2015
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We use remotely sensed land surface temperature and land cover in conjunction with air temperature and snowfall from a reanalysis product as input for a simple permafrost model. The scheme is applied to the permafrost regions bordering the North Atlantic. A comparison with ground temperatures in boreholes suggests a modeling accuracy of 2 to 2.5 °C.
S. Westermann, B. Elberling, S. Højlund Pedersen, M. Stendel, B. U. Hansen, and G. E. Liston
The Cryosphere, 9, 719–735, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-719-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-719-2015, 2015
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The development of ground temperatures in permafrost areas is influenced by many factors varying on different spatial and temporal scales. We present numerical simulations of ground temperatures for the Zackenberg valley in NE Greenland, which take into account the spatial variability of snow depths, surface and ground properties at a scale of 10m. The ensemble of the model grid cells suggests a spatial variability of annual average ground temperatures of up to 5°C.
M. Langer, S. Westermann, K. Walter Anthony, K. Wischnewski, and J. Boike
Biogeosciences, 12, 977–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-977-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-977-2015, 2015
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Methane production rates of Arctic ponds during the freezing period within a typical tundra landscape in northern Siberia are presented. Production rates were inferred by inverse modeling based on measured methane concentrations in the ice cover. Results revealed marked differences in early winter methane production among ponds showing different stages of shore degradation. This suggests that shore erosion can increase methane production of Arctic ponds by 2 to 3 orders of magnitude.
F. Magnin, P. Deline, L. Ravanel, J. Noetzli, and P. Pogliotti
The Cryosphere, 9, 109–121, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-109-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-109-2015, 2015
J. Lüers, S. Westermann, K. Piel, and J. Boike
Biogeosciences, 11, 6307–6322, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6307-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6307-2014, 2014
K. Gisnås, S. Westermann, T. V. Schuler, T. Litherland, K. Isaksen, J. Boike, and B. Etzelmüller
The Cryosphere, 8, 2063–2074, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2063-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2063-2014, 2014
N. Peleg, M. Ben-Asher, and E. Morin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2195–2208, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2195-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2195-2013, 2013
S. Westermann, T. V. Schuler, K. Gisnås, and B. Etzelmüller
The Cryosphere, 7, 719–739, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-719-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-719-2013, 2013
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Hanne Hendrickx, Melanie Elias, Xabier Blanch, Reynald Delaloye, and Anette Eltner
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 705–721, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-705-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-705-2025, 2025
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This study presents a novel AI-based method for tracking and analysing the movement of rock glaciers and landslides, key landforms in high mountain regions. By utilising time-lapse images, our approach generates detailed velocity data, uncovering movement patterns often missed by traditional methods. This cost-effective tool enhances geohazard monitoring, providing insights into environmental drivers, improving process understanding, and contributing to better safety in alpine areas.
Riccardo Bonomelli, Marco Pilotti, and Gabriele Farina
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 665–681, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-665-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-665-2025, 2025
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Debris flows are fundamental components of the hazard in mountain regions, and numerical models must be used for the related risk computation. Most existing commercial software strongly conceptualizes the main characteristics of the flow, leading to an inevitable calibration process, which is time-consuming and difficult to accomplish. This contribution offers some physically based solutions to confine the calibration process and to better understand the implications of the selected choice.
Joshua M. Wolstenholme, Christopher J. Skinner, David Milan, Robert E. Thomas, and Daniel R. Parsons
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 647–663, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-647-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-647-2025, 2025
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Leaky wooden dams are a popular form of natural flood management used to slow the flow of water by increasing floodplain connectivity whilst decreasing connectivity along the river profile. By monitoring two leaky wooden dams in North Yorkshire, UK, we present the geomorphological response to their installation, highlighting that the structures significantly increase channel complexity in response to different river flow conditions.
Loïs Ribet, Frédéric Liébault, Laurent Borgniet, Michaël Deschâtres, and Gabriel Melun
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 607–627, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-607-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-607-2025, 2025
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This work presents a protocol and a model to obtain the sizes of the pebbles in mountain rivers from uncrewed aerial vehicle images. A total of 12 rivers located in southeastern France were photographed to build the model. The results show that the model has little error and should be usable for similar rivers. The grain size of mountain rivers is an important parameter for environmental diagnostics by mapping the aquatic habitats and for flood management by estimating the pebble fluxes during floods.
Mirjam Schaller, Daniel Peifer, Alexander B. Neely, Thomas Bernard, Christoph Glotzbach, Alexander R. Beer, and Todd A. Ehlers
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 571–591, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-571-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-571-2025, 2025
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This study reports chemical weathering, physical erosion, and denudation rates from river load data in the Swabian Alb, southwestern Germany. Tributaries to the Neckar River draining to the north show higher rates than tributaries draining to the southeast into the Danube River, causing a retreat of the Swabian Alb escarpment. Observations are discussed in light of anthropogenic impact, lithology, and topography. The data are further compared to other rates over space and time and to global data.
Gareth G. Roberts
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 563–570, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-563-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-563-2025, 2025
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The use of new artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to learn how landscapes evolve is demonstrated. A few “snapshots” of an eroding landscape at different stages of its history provide enough information for AI to ascertain rules governing its evolution. Once the rules are known, predicting landscape evolution is extremely rapid and efficient, providing new tools to understand landscape change.
Jingqiu Huang and Hugh D. Sinclair
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 531–547, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-531-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-531-2025, 2025
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We develop a novel approach based on satellite radar images to quantify millimetre-scale sedimentation during monsoon floods over a 15 km stretch of four rivers, from the Himalayan mountain front to the gravel–sand transition. The results show how sediment accumulates more rapidly near the mountain front and decreases downstream, while the floodplain sinks. This method can improve river monitoring, enhance flood prediction, and benefit communities at risk of flooding in Nepal and India.
Pierre Dietrich, François Guillocheau, Guilhem A. Douillet, Neil P. Griffis, Guillaume Baby, Daniel P. Le Héron, Laurie Barrier, Maximilien Mathian, Isabel P. Montañez, Cécile Robin, Thomas Gyomlai, Christoph Kettler, and Axel Hofmann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 495–529, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-495-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-495-2025, 2025
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At the evocation of icy landscapes, Africa is not the first place that comes to mind. The modern relief of Southern Africa is generally considered to be a result of uplift and counteracting erosion. We show that some of the modern relief of this region is due to fossil glacial landscapes – striated pavements, valleys, and fjords – tied to an ice age that occurred ca. 300 Myr ago. We focus on how these landscapes have escaped being erased for hundreds of millions of years.
Lorenzo Durante, Nicoletta Tambroni, and Michele Bolla Pittaluga
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 455–471, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-455-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-455-2025, 2025
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River deltas evolve due to natural forces and human activities, posing challenges for communities relying on stable water flow. This study examines how different flow distributions shape delta channels. Using a new theoretical model, we identify branch length as the key factor influencing stability. Applying this to Italy's Po River Delta, we highlight areas at risk of change, providing insights for better management and planning.
Hasan Eslami, Erfan Poursoleymanzadeh, Mojtaba Hiteh, Keivan Tavakoli, Melika Yavari Nia, Ehsan Zadehali, Reihaneh Zarrabi, and Alessio Radice
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 437–454, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-437-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-437-2025, 2025
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A channel may be aggraded by overloaded sediment. In this study we realize an aggradation experiment and determine the celerity at which an aggradation wave, due to sediment overloading, migrates. We also investigate the celerity of small perturbations, as quantified by mathematical formulations. The celerities of the two kinds are correlated with each other. However, the celerity of small perturbations is larger than the other one, which is less than a few percent of the water velocity.
Larry Syu-Heng Lai, Adam M. Booth, Alison R. Duvall, and Erich Herzig
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 417–435, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-417-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-417-2025, 2025
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pyTopoComplexity is an open-source Python tool for multiscale land surface complexity analysis. Applied to a landslide-affected area in Washington, USA, it accurately identified landform features at various scales, enhancing our understanding of landform recovery after disturbances. By integrating with Landlab’s landscape evolution simulations, the software allows researchers to explore how different processes drive the evolution of surface complexity in response to natural forces.
Dominik Amschwand, Jonas Wicky, Martin Scherler, Martin Hoelzle, Bernhard Krummenacher, Anna Haberkorn, Christian Kienholz, and Hansueli Gubler
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 365–401, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-365-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-365-2025, 2025
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Rock glaciers are comparatively climate-robust permafrost landforms. We estimated the energy budget of the seasonally thawing active layer (AL) of Murtèl rock glacier (Swiss Alps) based on a novel sub-surface sensor array. In the coarse blocky AL, heat is transferred by thermal radiation and air convection. The ground heat flux is largely spent on melting seasonal ice in the AL. Convective cooling and the seasonal ice turnover make rock glaciers climate-robust and shield the permafrost beneath.
Octria A. Prasojo, Trevor B. Hoey, Amanda Owen, and Richard D. Williams
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 349–363, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-349-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-349-2025, 2025
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Decades of delta avulsion (i.e. channel abrupt jump) studies have not resolved what the main controls of delta avulsion are. Using a computer model, integrated with field observation, analytical, and laboratory-made deltas, we found that the sediment load, which itself is controlled by the steepness of the river upstream of a delta, controls the timing of avulsion. We can now better understand the main cause of abrupt channel changes in deltas, a finding that aids flood risk management in river deltas.
Chloé Seibert, Cecilia McHugh, Chris Paola, Leonardo Seeber, and James Tucker
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 341–348, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-341-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-341-2025, 2025
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We propose a new mechanism of co-seismic sediment entrainment induced by shear stress at the sediment–water interface during major subduction earthquakes rupturing to the trench. Physical experiments show that flow velocities consistent with long-period earthquake motions can entrain synthetic marine sediment, and high-frequency vertical shaking can enhance this mobilization. They validate the proposed entrainment mechanism, which opens new avenues for paleoseismology in deep-sea environments.
Aljoscha Rheinwalt, Benjamin Purinton, and Bodo Bookhagen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1110, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1110, 2025
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Our study presents a computer-based method to detect and measure pebbles in 3D models reconstructed from camera photos. We tested it in a controlled setup and achieved 98 % accuracy in detecting pebbles. Unlike traditional 2D methods, our approach provides full 3D size and orientation data. This improves sediment analysis and riverbed studies by offering more precise measurements. Our work highlights the potential of 3D modeling for studying natural surfaces.
Aline Zinelabedin, Joel Mohren, Maria Wierzbicka-Wieczorek, Tibor Janos Dunai, Stefan Heinze, and Benedikt Ritter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 257–276, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-257-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-257-2025, 2025
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In order to interpret the formation processes of subsurface salt wedges and polygonal patterned grounds from the northern Atacama Desert, we present a multi-methodological approach. Due to the high salt content of the wedges, we suggest that their formation is dominated by subsurface salt dynamics requiring moisture. We assume that the climatic conditions during the wedge growth were slightly wetter than today, offering the potential to use the wedges as palaeoclimate archives.
Marine Le Minor, Dimitri Lague, Jamie Howarth, and Philippe Davy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1271, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1271, 2025
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In natural rivers, flow variability and sediment heterogeneity affect how sediment grains are transported. A unique law that predicts the total amount of sediment transportable by a river for a wide range of sediment mixtures and flow conditions exist but unclear trends remain. Two improvements of this law, a standardized onset of sediment transport and a common reference transport height across all sizes, appear to be critical to have a functional multi grain-size total sediment load.
Alexander B. Prescott, Jon D. Pelletier, Satya Chataut, and Sriram Ananthanarayan
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 239–256, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-239-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-239-2025, 2025
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Many Earth surface processes are controlled by the spatial pattern of surface water flow. We review commonly used methods for predicting such spatial patterns in digital landform models and document the pros and cons of commonly used methods. We propose a new method that is designed to minimize those limitations and show that it works well in a variety of test cases.
Jon D. Pelletier, Robert G. Hayes, Olivia Hoch, Brendan Fenerty, and Luke A. McGuire
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 219–238, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-219-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-219-2025, 2025
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We demonstrate that landscapes with more planar initial conditions tend to have lower mean junction angles. Geomorphic processes on alluvial piedmonts result in especially planar initial conditions, consistent with a correlation between junction angles and the presence/absence of Late Cenozoic alluvial deposits and the constraint imposed by the intersection of planar approximations to the topography upslope from tributary junctions. We caution against using junction angles to infer paleoclimate.
Soichi Tanabe and Toshiki Iwasaki
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-103, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-103, 2025
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We try to understand how the sediment supply from the upstream river reach affect the downstream river morphology using a numerical model. If the supplied sediment is composed of variety of size class of particles, a small size bed wave that is composed of mainly fine particles (sorting wave) can propagate to downstream very long distance. However, presence of bars suppresses the effect of sorting wave greatly, and thus the sediment supply has limited role in the downstream river morphology.
Janbert Aarnink, Tom Beucler, Marceline Vuaridel, and Virginia Ruiz-Villanueva
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 167–189, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-167-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-167-2025, 2025
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This study presents a novel convolutional-neural-network approach for detecting instream large wood in rivers, addressing the need for flexible monitoring methods across diverse data sources. Using a database of 15 228 fully labelled images, the model achieved a weighted mean average precision of 67 %. Fine-tuning parameters and sampling techniques can improve performance by over 10 % in some cases, offering valuable insights into ecosystem management.
Julius Reich and Axel Winterscheid
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 191–217, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-191-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-191-2025, 2025
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Analyzing the geometry and the dynamics of riverine bedforms (so-called dune tracking) is important for various fields of application and contributes to sound and efficient river and sediment management. We developed a workflow that enables a robust estimation of bedform characteristics and with which comprehensive sensitivity analyses can be carried out. Using a field dataset, we show that the setting of input parameters in bedform analyses can have a significant impact on the results.
Abhishek Kashyap, Kristen L. Cook, and Mukunda Dev Behera
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 147–166, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-147-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-147-2025, 2025
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Short-lived, high-magnitude flood events across high mountain regions leave substantial geomorphic imprints, which are frequently triggered by excess precipitation, glacial lake outbursts, and natural dam breaches. These catastrophic floods highlight the importance of understanding the complex interaction between climatic, hydrological, and geological forces in bedrock catchments. Extreme floods can have long-term geomorphic consequences on river morphology and fluvial processes.
Caroline Fenske, Jean Braun, François Guillocheau, and Cécile Robin
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 119–146, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-119-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-119-2025, 2025
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We have developed a new numerical model to represent the formation of duricrusts, which are hard mineral layers found in soils and at the surface of the Earth. We assume that the formation mechanism implies variations in the height of the water table and that the hardening rate is proportional to precipitation. The model allows us to quantify the potential feedbacks they generate on the surface topography and the thickness of the regolith/soil layer.
Jens M. Turowski, Fergus McNab, Aaron Bufe, and Stefanie Tofelde
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 97–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-97-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-97-2025, 2025
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Channel belts comprise the area affected by a river due to lateral migration and floods. As a landform, they affect water resources and flood hazard, and they often host unique ecological communities. We develop a model describing the evolution of channel-belt area over time. The model connects the behaviour of the river to the evolution of the channel belt over a timescale of centuries. A comparison to selected data from experiments and real river systems verifies the random walk approach.
Rémi Bossis, Vincent Regard, Sébastien Carretier, and Sandrine Choy
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 71–79, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-71-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-71-2025, 2025
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The erosion of rocky coasts occurs episodically through wave action and landslides, constituting a major natural hazard. Documenting the factors that control the coastal retreat rate over millennia is fundamental to evidencing any change in time. However, the known rates to date are essentially representative of the last few decades. Here, we present a new method using the concentration of an isotope, 10Be, in sediment eroded from the cliff to quantify its retreat rate averaged over millennia.
Jean Vérité, Clément Narteau, Olivier Rozier, Jeanne Alkalla, Laurie Barrier, and Sylvain Courrech du Pont
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 23–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-23-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-23-2025, 2025
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Using a numerical model in 2D, we study how two identical dunes interact with each other when exposed to reversing winds. Depending on the distance between the dunes, they either repel or attract each other until they reach an equilibrium distance, which is controlled by the wind strength, wind reversal frequency, and dune size. This process is controlled by the modification of wind flow over dunes of various shapes, influencing the sediment transport downstream.
Alexandru Onaca, Flavius Sirbu, Valentin Poncos, Christin Hilbich, Tazio Strozzi, Petru Urdea, Răzvan Popescu, Oana Berzescu, Bernd Etzelmüller, Alfred Vespremeanu-Stroe, Mirela Vasile, Delia Teleagă, Dan Birtaș, Iosif Lopătiță, Simon Filhol, Alexandru Hegyi, and Florina Ardelean
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3262, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3262, 2025
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This study establishes a methodology for the study of slow-moving rock glaciers in marginal permafrost and provides the basic knowledge for understanding rock glaciers in south east Europe. By using a combination of different methods (remote sensing, geophysical survey, thermal measurements), we found out that, on the transitional rock glaciers, low ground ice content (i.e. below 20 %) produces horizontal displacements of up to 3 cm per year.
Orie Cecil, Nicholas Cohn, Matthew Farthing, Sourav Dutta, and Andrew Trautz
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-1-2025, 2025
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Using computational fluid dynamics, we analyze the error trends of an analytical shear stress distribution model used to drive aeolian transport for coastal dunes, which are an important line of defense against storm-related flooding hazards. We find that compared to numerical simulations, the analytical model results in a net overprediction of the landward migration rate. Additionally, two data-driven approaches are proposed for reducing the error while maintaining computational efficiency.
Hayden L. Jacobson, Danica L. Roth, Gabriel Walton, Margaret Zimmer, and Kerri Johnson
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1415–1446, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1415-2024, 2024
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Loose grains travel farther after a fire because no vegetation is left to stop them. This matters since loose grains at the base of a slope can turn into a debris flow if it rains. To find if grass growing back after a fire had different impacts on grains of different sizes on slopes of different steepness, we dropped thousands of natural grains and measured how far they went. Large grains went farther 7 months after the fire than 11 months after, and small grain movement didn’t change much.
Elizabeth N. Orr, Taylor F. Schildgen, Stefanie Tofelde, Hella Wittmann, and Ricardo N. Alonso
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1391–1413, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1391-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1391-2024, 2024
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Fluvial terraces and alluvial fans in the Toro Basin, NW Argentina, record river evolution and global climate cycles over time. Landform dating reveals lower-frequency climate cycles (100 kyr) preserved downstream and higher-frequency cycles (21/40 kyr) upstream, supporting theoretical predications that longer rivers filter out higher-frequency climate signals. This finding improves our understanding of the spatial distribution of sedimentary paleoclimate records within landscapes.
Fritz Schlunegger, Edi Kissling, Dimitri Tibo Bandou, Guilhem Amin Douillet, David Mair, Urs Marti, Regina Reber, Patrick Schläfli, and Michael Alfred Schwenk
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1371–1389, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1371-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1371-2024, 2024
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Overdeepenings are bedrock depressions filled with sediment. We combine the results of a gravity survey with drilling data to explore the morphology of such a depression beneath the city of Bern. We find that the target overdeepening comprises two basins >200 m deep. They are separated by a bedrock riegel that itself is cut by narrow canyons up to 150 m deep. We postulate that these structures formed underneath a glacier, where erosion by subglacial meltwater caused the formation of the canyons.
Stefan Hergarten
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1315–1327, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1315-2024, 2024
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Faceted topographies are impressive footprints of active tectonics in geomorphology. This paper investigates the evolution of faceted topographies at normal faults and their interaction with a river network theoretically and numerically. As a main result beyond several relations for the geometry of facets, the horizontal displacement associated with normal faults is crucial for the dissection of initially polygonal facets into triangular facets bounded by almost parallel rivers.
Justin A. Nghiem, Gen K. Li, Joshua P. Harringmeyer, Gerard Salter, Cédric G. Fichot, Luca Cortese, and Michael P. Lamb
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1267–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1267-2024, 2024
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Fine sediment grains in freshwater can cohere into faster-settling particles called flocs, but floc settling velocity theory has not been fully validated. Combining three data sources in novel ways in the Wax Lake Delta, we verified a semi-empirical model relying on turbulence and geochemical factors. For a physics-based model, we showed that the representative grain diameter within flocs relies on floc structure and that heterogeneous flow paths inside flocs increase floc settling velocity.
Jessica Marggraf, Guillaume Dramais, Jérôme Le Coz, Blaise Calmel, Benoît Camenen, David J. Topping, William Santini, Gilles Pierrefeu, and François Lauters
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1243–1266, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1243-2024, 2024
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Suspended-sand fluxes in rivers vary with time and space, complicating their measurement. The proposed method captures the vertical and lateral variations of suspended-sand concentration throughout a river cross-section. It merges water samples taken at various positions throughout the cross-section with high-resolution acoustic velocity measurements. This is the first method that includes a fully applicable uncertainty estimation; it can easily be applied to any other study sites.
Dominic T. Robson and Andreas C. W. Baas
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1205–1226, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1205-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1205-2024, 2024
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Barchans are fast-moving sand dunes which form large populations (swarms) on Earth and Mars. We show that a small range of model parameters produces swarms in which dune size does not vary downwind – something that is observed in nature but not when using earlier models. We also show how the shape of dunes and the spatial patterns they form are affected by wind direction. This work furthers our understanding of the interplay between environmental drivers, dune interactions, and swarm properties.
Jeffrey Keck, Erkan Istanbulluoglu, Benjamin Campforts, Gregory Tucker, and Alexander Horner-Devine
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1165–1191, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1165-2024, 2024
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MassWastingRunout (MWR) is a new landslide runout model designed for sediment transport, landscape evolution, and hazard assessment applications. MWR is written in Python and includes a calibration utility that automatically determines best-fit parameters for a site and empirical probability density functions of each parameter for probabilistic model implementation. MWR and Jupyter Notebook tutorials are available as part of the Landlab package at https://github.com/landlab/landlab.
Ariane Mueting and Bodo Bookhagen
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1121–1143, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1121-2024, 2024
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This study investigates the use of optical PlanetScope data for offset tracking of the Earth's surface movement. We found that co-registration accuracy is locally degraded when outdated elevation models are used for orthorectification. To mitigate this bias, we propose to only correlate scenes acquired from common perspectives or base orthorectification on more up-to-date elevation models generated from PlanetScope data alone. This enables a more detailed analysis of landslide dynamics.
Cho-Hee Lee, Yeong Bae Seong, John Weber, Sangmin Ha, Dong-Eun Kim, and Byung Yong Yu
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1091–1120, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1091-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1091-2024, 2024
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Topographic metrics were used to understand changes due to tectonic activity. We evaluated the relative tectonic activity along the Ulsan Fault Zone (UFZ), one of the most active fault zones in South Korea. We divided the UFZ into five segments, based on the spatial variation in activity. We modeled the landscape evolution of the study area and interpreted tectono-geomorphic history during which the northern part of the UFZ experienced asymmetric uplift, while the southern part did not.
Viktoria Kosmalla, Oliver Lojek, Jana Carus, Kara Keimer, Lukas Ahrenbeck, Björn Mehrtens, David Schürenkamp, Boris Schröder, and Nils Goseberg
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2688, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2688, 2024
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This study analysed seasonal biomechanical traits of marram grass at two coastal dune sites using monthly field and lab data acquired 2022. Differences in density, leaf length, and flower stems were observed, which are unaffected by wind and deemed transferable. These findings enable surrogate model development for numerical and physical experiments alike, where live vegetation is impractical. Results address the knowledge gap how dune stability and erosion resistance are affected by vegetation.
Juditha Aga, Livia Piermattei, Luc Girod, Kristoffer Aalstad, Trond Eiken, Andreas Kääb, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1049–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1049-2024, 2024
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Coastal rock cliffs on Svalbard are considered to be fairly stable; however, long-term trends in coastal-retreat rates remain unknown. This study examines changes in the coastline position along Brøggerhalvøya, Svalbard, using aerial images from 1970, 1990, 2010, and 2021. Our analysis shows that coastal-retreat rates accelerate during the period 2010–2021, which coincides with increasing storminess and retreating sea ice.
Aaron T. Steelquist, Gustav B. Seixas, Mary L. Gillam, Sourav Saha, Seulgi Moon, and George E. Hilley
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1071–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1071-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1071-2024, 2024
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The rates at which rivers erode their bed can be used to interpret the geologic history of a region. However, these rates depend significantly on the time window over which you measure. We use multiple dating methods to determine an incision rate for the San Juan River and compare it to regional rates with longer timescales. We demonstrate how specific geologic events, such as cutoffs of bedrock meander bends, are likely to preserve material we can date but also bias the rates we measure.
Johannes Leinauer, Michael Dietze, Sibylle Knapp, Riccardo Scandroglio, Maximilian Jokel, and Michael Krautblatter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1027–1048, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1027-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1027-2024, 2024
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Massive rock slope failures are a significant alpine hazard and change the Earth's surface. Therefore, we must understand what controls the preparation of such events. By correlating 4 years of slope displacements with meteorological and seismic data, we found that water from rain and snowmelt is the most important driver. Our approach is applicable to similar sites and indicates where future climatic changes, e.g. in rain intensity and frequency, may alter the preparation of slope failure.
Julien Coatléven and Benoit Chauveau
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 995–1026, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-995-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-995-2024, 2024
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The aim of this paper is to explain how to incorporate classical water flow routines into landscape evolution models while keeping numerical errors under control. The key idea is to adapt filtering strategies to eliminate anomalous numerical errors and mesh dependencies, as confirmed by convergence tests with analytic solutions. The emergence of complex geomorphic structures is now driven exclusively by nonlinear heterogeneous physical processes rather than by random numerical artifacts.
Jingjuan Li, John D. Jansen, Xuanmei Fan, Zhiyong Ding, Shugang Kang, and Marco Lovati
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 953–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-953-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-953-2024, 2024
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In this study, we investigated the geomorphology, sedimentology, and chronology of Tuanjie (seven terraces) and Taiping (three terraces) terraces in Diexi, eastern Tibetan Plateau. Results highlight that two damming and three outburst events occurred in the area during the late Pleistocene, and the outburst floods have been a major factor in the formation of tectonically active mountainous river terraces. Tectonic activity and climatic changes play a minor role.
Andrew Hollyday, Maureen E. Raymo, Jacqueline Austermann, Fred Richards, Mark Hoggard, and Alessio Rovere
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 883–905, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-883-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-883-2024, 2024
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Sea level was significantly higher during the Pliocene epoch, around 3 million years ago. The present-day elevations of shorelines that formed in the past provide a data constraint on the extent of ice sheet melt and the global sea level response under warm Pliocene conditions. In this study, we identify 10 escarpments that formed from wave-cut erosion during Pliocene times and compare their elevations with model predictions of solid Earth deformation processes to estimate past sea level.
Gregory A. Ruetenik, Ken L. Ferrier, and Odin Marc
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 863–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-863-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-863-2024, 2024
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Fluvial sediment fluxes increased dramatically in Taiwan during Typhoon Morakot in 2009, which produced some of the heaviest landsliding on record. We analyzed fluvial discharge and suspended sediment concentration data at 87 gauging stations across Taiwan to quantify fluvial sediment responses since Morakot. In basins heavily impacted by landsliding, rating curve coefficients sharply increased during Morakot and then declined exponentially with a characteristic decay time of <10 years.
Nil Carrion-Bertran, Albert Falqués, Francesca Ribas, Daniel Calvete, Rinse de Swart, Ruth Durán, Candela Marco-Peretó, Marta Marcos, Angel Amores, Tim Toomey, Àngels Fernández-Mora, and Jorge Guillén
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 819–839, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-819-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-819-2024, 2024
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The sensitivity to the wave and sea-level forcing sources in predicting a 6-month embayed beach evolution is assessed using two different morphodynamic models. After a successful model calibration using in situ data, other sources are applied. The wave source choice is critical: hindcast data provide wrong results due to an angle bias, whilst the correct dynamics are recovered with the wave conditions from an offshore buoy. The use of different sea-level sources gives no significant differences.
Thomas J. Barnes, Thomas V. Schuler, Simon Filhol, and Karianne S. Lilleøren
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 801–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-801-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-801-2024, 2024
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In this paper, we use machine learning to automatically outline landforms based on their characteristics. We test several methods to identify the most accurate and then proceed to develop the most accurate to improve its accuracy further. We manage to outline landforms with 65 %–75 % accuracy, at a resolution of 10 m, thanks to high-quality/high-resolution elevation data. We find that it is possible to run this method at a country scale to quickly produce landform inventories for future studies.
Eric Petersen, Regine Hock, and Michael G. Loso
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 727–745, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-727-2024, 2024
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Ice cliffs are melt hot spots that increase melt rates on debris-covered glaciers which otherwise see a reduction in melt rates. In this study, we show how surface runoff streams contribute to the generation, evolution, and survival of ice cliffs by carving into the glacier and transporting rocky debris. On Kennicott Glacier, Alaska, 33 % of ice cliffs are actively influenced by streams, while nearly half are within 10 m of streams.
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Short summary
Quantitative knowledge of water availability on high mountain rock slopes is very limited. We use a numerical model and field measurements to estimate the water balance at a steep rock wall site. We show that snowmelt is the main source of water at elevations >3600 m and that snowpack hydrology and sublimation are key factors. The new information presented here can be used to improve the understanding of thermal, hydrogeological, and mechanical processes on steep mountain rock slopes.
Quantitative knowledge of water availability on high mountain rock slopes is very limited. We...
