Earth Surface Dynamics
Earth Surface Dynamics
ESurf
Articles | Volume 13, issue 3
Articles | Volume 13, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-473-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-473-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 13, issue 3
Research article
 | 
20 Jun 2025
Research article |  | 20 Jun 2025

Modeling active layer thickness in permafrost rock walls based on an analytical solution of the heat transport equation, Kitzsteinhorn, Hohe Tauern Range, Austria

Wolfgang Aumer, Ingo Hartmeyer, Carolyn-Monika Görres, Daniel Uteau, Maike Offer, and Stephan Peth

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Short summary
The summertime thaw depth of permanently frozen ground (active layer thickness, ALT) is of critical importance for natural hazard management (e.g., rock avalanches) and construction (foundation stability) in mountain permafrost regions. We report the first analytical heat transport model for simulating ALT based on near-surface temperature in permafrost rock walls. Our results show that the ALT will likely increase by more than 50 % by 2050 at 3000 m a.s.l. in the European Alps.
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