Articles | Volume 12, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-691-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-691-2024
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
08 May 2024
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 08 May 2024

Geomorphic risk maps for river migration using probabilistic modeling – a framework

Brayden Noh, Omar Wani, Kieran B. J. Dunne, and Michael P. Lamb

Related authors

Validating floc settling velocity models in rivers and freshwater wetlands
Justin A. Nghiem, Gen K. Li, Joshua P. Harringmeyer, Gerard Salter, Cédric G. Fichot, Luca Cortese, and Michael P. Lamb
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-524,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-524, 2024
Short summary
Dimensionless argument: a narrow grain size range near 2 mm plays a special role in river sediment transport and morphodynamics
Gary Parker, Chenge An, Michael P. Lamb, Marcelo H. Garcia, Elizabeth H. Dingle, and Jeremy G. Venditti
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 367–380, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-367-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-367-2024, 2024
Short summary
Organic carbon burial by river meandering partially offsets bank erosion carbon fluxes in a discontinuous permafrost floodplain
Madison M. Douglas, Gen K. Li, Woodward W. Fischer, Joel C. Rowland, Preston C. Kemeny, A. Joshua West, Jon Schwenk, Anastasia P. Piliouras, Austin J. Chadwick, and Michael P. Lamb
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 421–435, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-421-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-421-2022, 2022
Short summary
Entrainment and suspension of sand and gravel
Jan de Leeuw, Michael P. Lamb, Gary Parker, Andrew J. Moodie, Daniel Haught, Jeremy G. Venditti, and Jeffrey A. Nittrouer
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 485–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-485-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-485-2020, 2020

Related subject area

Physical: Geomorphology (including all aspects of fluvial, coastal, aeolian, hillslope and glacial geomorphology)
Terrace formation linked to outburst floods at the Diexi palaeo-landslide dam, upper Minjiang River, eastern Tibetan Plateau
Jingjuan Li, John D. Jansen, Xuanmei Fan, Zhiyong Ding, Shugang Kang, and Marco Lovati
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 953–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-953-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-953-2024, 2024
Short summary
Pliocene shorelines and the epeirogenic motion of continental margins: a target dataset for dynamic topography models
Andrew Hollyday, Maureen E. Raymo, Jacqueline Austermann, Fred Richards, Mark Hoggard, and Alessio Rovere
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 883–905, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-883-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-883-2024, 2024
Short summary
Decadal-scale decay of landslide-derived fluvial suspended sediment after Typhoon Morakot
Gregory A. Ruetenik, Ken L. Ferrier, and Odin Marc
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 863–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-863-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-863-2024, 2024
Short summary
Role of the forcing sources in morphodynamic modelling of an embayed beach
Nil Carrion-Bertran, Albert Falqués, Francesca Ribas, Daniel Calvete, Rinse de Swart, Ruth Durán, Candela Marco-Peretó, Marta Marcos, Angel Amores, Tim Toomey, Àngels Fernández-Mora, and Jorge Guillén
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 819–839, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-819-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-819-2024, 2024
Short summary
A machine learning approach to the geomorphometric detection of ribbed moraines in Norway
Thomas J. Barnes, Thomas V. Schuler, Simon Filhol, and Karianne S. Lilleøren
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 801–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-801-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-801-2024, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Benda, L. and Dunne, T.: Stochastic forcing of sediment supply to channel networks from landsliding and debris flow, Water Resour. Res., 33, 2849–2863, 1997a. a
Benda, L. and Dunne, T.: Stochastic forcing of sediment routing and storage in channel networks, Water Resour. Res., 33, 2865–2880, 1997b. a
Benda, L. E., Miller, D. J., Dunne, T., Reeves, G. H., and Agee, J. K.: Dynamic landscape systems, River ecology and management: lessons from the Pacific coastal ecoregion, Springer, New York, 261–288, ISBN 978-0-387-95246-8, 1998. a
Beven, K.: A manifesto for the equifinality thesis, J. Hydrol., 320, 18–36, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.07.007, 2006. a
Beven, K. and Lane, S.: On (in)validating environmental models. 1. Principles for formulating a Turing‐like Test for determining when a model is fit-for purpose, Hydrol. Process., 36, e14704, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14704, 2022. a, b, c
Download
Editor
River meandering is a long standing source of interest for scientists interested in how the Earths surface is shaped. Here, Noh et al., use a novel probablistic approach to create geomorphic risk maps where areas that have the potential for meandering can be assessed in an arguably more rigorous way than before.
Short summary
In this paper, we propose a framework for generating risk maps that provide the probabilities of erosion due to river migration. This framework uses concepts from probability theory to learn the river migration model's parameter values from satellite data while taking into account parameter uncertainty. Our analysis shows that such geomorphic risk estimation is more reliable than models that do not explicitly consider various sources of variability and uncertainty.