Articles | Volume 9, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-953-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-953-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta: results of field observations and integrated coastal–inland modelling
Sepehr Eslami
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geoscience, Utrecht University, Utrecht, 3584 CB, the Netherlands
Marine and Coastal Systems Unit, Deltares, Delft, 2629 HV, the Netherlands
Piet Hoekstra
Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geoscience, Utrecht University, Utrecht, 3584 CB, the Netherlands
Herman W. J. Kernkamp
Software Department, Deltares, Delft, 2629 HV, the Netherlands
Nam Nguyen Trung
Southern Institute for Water Resources Planning (SIWRP), Ho Chi Minh City, Ward 3 72710, Vietnam
Dung Do Duc
Southern Institute for Water Resources Planning (SIWRP), Ho Chi Minh City, Ward 3 72710, Vietnam
Hung Nguyen Nghia
Southern Institute of Water Resources Research (SIWRR), Ho Chi Minh City, 656 Võ Văn Ki\^{e}̣t, District 5, Vietnam
Tho Tran Quang
Southern Institute for Water Resources Planning (SIWRP), Ho Chi Minh City, Ward 3 72710, Vietnam
Arthur van Dam
Software Department, Deltares, Delft, 2629 HV, the Netherlands
Stephen E. Darby
Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK
Daniel R. Parsons
Department of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences, University of Hull, Hull HU6 7RX, UK
Grigorios Vasilopoulos
Department of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences, University of Hull, Hull HU6 7RX, UK
Lisanne Braat
Department of Geology and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, CA 91125, USA
Maarten van der Vegt
Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geoscience, Utrecht University, Utrecht, 3584 CB, the Netherlands
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Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, and Joël J.-M. Hirschi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3627–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, 2024
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We look at how compound flooding from the combination of river flooding and storm tides (storm surge and astronomical tide) may be changing over time due to climate change, with a case study of the Mekong River delta. We found that future compound flooding has the potential to flood the region more extensively and be longer lasting than compound floods today. This is useful to know because it means managers of deltas such as the Mekong can assess options for improving existing flood defences.
Joshua M. Wolstenholme, Christopher J. Skinner, David J. Milan, Robert E. Thomas, and Daniel R. Parsons
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2132, 2024
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Leaky wooden dams are a type of natural flood management intervention that aim to reduce flood risk downstream by temporarily holding back water during a storm event and releasing it afterwards. These structures alter the river hydrology, and therefore the geomorphology, yet often this is excluded from numerical models. Here we show that by not simulating geomorphology we are currently underestimating the efficacy of these structures to reduce the flood peak and store water.
Solomon H. Gebrechorkos, Julian Leyland, Simon J. Dadson, Sagy Cohen, Louise Slater, Michel Wortmann, Philip J. Ashworth, Georgina L. Bennett, Richard Boothroyd, Hannah Cloke, Pauline Delorme, Helen Griffith, Richard Hardy, Laurence Hawker, Stuart McLelland, Jeffrey Neal, Andrew Nicholas, Andrew J. Tatem, Ellie Vahidi, Yinxue Liu, Justin Sheffield, Daniel R. Parsons, and Stephen E. Darby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3099–3118, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3099-2024, 2024
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This study evaluated six high-resolution global precipitation datasets for hydrological modelling. MSWEP and ERA5 showed better performance, but spatial variability was high. The findings highlight the importance of careful dataset selection for river discharge modelling due to the lack of a universally superior dataset. Further improvements in global precipitation data products are needed.
Hung Nghia Nguyen, Quan Quan Le, Dung Viet Nguyen, Tan Hong Cao, Toan Quang To, Hai Do Dac, Melissa Wood, and Ivan D. Haigh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-107, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
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The paper focuses on inundation process in a highest climate vulnerability area of the Mekong Delta, main drivers and future impacts, this is importance alert to decision makers and stakeholder for investment of infrastructure, adaptation approaches and mitigating impacts.
Charlotte Lyddon, Nguyen Chien, Grigorios Vasilopoulos, Michael Ridgill, Sogol Moradian, Agnieszka Olbert, Thomas Coulthard, Andrew Barkwith, and Peter Robins
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 973–997, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-973-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-973-2024, 2024
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Recent storms in the UK, like Storm Ciara in 2020, show how vulnerable estuaries are to the combined effect of sea level and river discharge. We show the combinations of sea levels and river discharges that cause flooding in the Conwy estuary, N Wales. The results showed flooding was amplified under moderate conditions in the middle estuary and elsewhere sea state or river flow dominated the hazard. Combined sea and river thresholds can improve prediction and early warning of compound flooding.
Xuxu Wu, Jonathan Malarkey, Roberto Fernández, Jaco H. Baas, Ellen Pollard, and Daniel R. Parsons
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 231–247, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-231-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-231-2024, 2024
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The seabed changes from flat to rippled in response to the frictional influence of waves and currents. This experimental study has shown that the speed of this change, the size of ripples that result and even whether ripples appear also depend on the amount of sticky mud present. This new classification on the basis of initial mud content should lead to improvements in models of seabed change in present environments by engineers and the interpretation of past environments by geologists.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, Robert J. Nicholls, and Nadia Bloemendaal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2475–2504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, 2023
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We used a novel database of simulated tropical cyclone tracks to explore whether typhoon-induced storm surges present a future flood risk to low-lying coastal communities around the South China Sea. We found that future climate change is likely to change tropical cyclone behaviour to an extent that this increases the severity and frequency of storm surges to Vietnam, southern China, and Thailand. Consequently, coastal flood defences need to be reviewed for resilience against this future hazard.
Andrea Gasparotto, Stephen E. Darby, Julian Leyland, and Paul A. Carling
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 343–361, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-343-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-343-2023, 2023
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In this study the processes leading to bank failures in the hypertidal Severn Estuary are studied employing numerical models and field observations. Results highlight that the periodic fluctuations in water levels drive an imbalance in the resisting (hydrostatic pressure) versus driving (pore water pressure) forces causing a frequent oscillation of bank stability between stable (at high tide) and unstable states (at low tide) both on semidiurnal bases and in the spring–neap transition.
Elena Bastianon, Julie A. Hope, Robert M. Dorrell, and Daniel R. Parsons
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 1115–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-1115-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-1115-2022, 2022
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Biological activity in shallow tidal environments significantly influence sediment dynamics and morphology. Here, a bio-morphodynamic model is developed that accounts for hydro-climate variations in biofilm development to estimate the effect of biostabilisation on the bed. Results reveal that key parameters such as growth rate and temperature strongly influence the development of biofilm under a range of disturbance periodicities and intensities, shaping the channel equilibrium profile.
Chengbin Zou, Paul Carling, Zetao Feng, Daniel Parsons, and Xuanmei Fan
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2022-119, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2022-119, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Climate change is causing mountain lakes behind glacier barriers to drain through ice tunnels as catastrophe floods, threatening people and infrastructure downstream. Understanding of how process works can mitigate the impacts by providing advanced warnings. A laboratory study of ice tunnel development improved understanding of how floods evolve. The principles of ice tunnel development were defined numerically and can be used to better model natural floods leading to improved prediction.
Maarten G. Kleinhans, Lonneke Roelofs, Steven A. H. Weisscher, Ivar R. Lokhorst, and Lisanne Braat
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 367–381, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-367-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-367-2022, 2022
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Floodplain formation in estuaries limit the ebb and flood flow, reducing channel migration and shortening the tidally influenced reach. Vegetation establishment on bars reduces local flow velocity and concentrates flow into channels, while mudflats fill accommodation space and reduce channel migration. These results are based on experimental estuaries in the Metronome facility supported by numerical flow modelling.
Christopher R. Hackney, Grigorios Vasilopoulos, Sokchhay Heng, Vasudha Darbari, Samuel Walker, and Daniel R. Parsons
Earth Surf. Dynam., 9, 1323–1334, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1323-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1323-2021, 2021
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Unsustainable sand mining poses a threat to the stability of river channels. We use satellite imagery to estimate volumes of material removed from the Mekong River, Cambodia, over the period 2016–2020. We demonstrate that current rates of extraction now exceed previous estimates for the entire Mekong Basin and significantly exceed the volume of sand naturally transported by the river. Our work highlights the importance of satellite imagery in monitoring sand mining activity over large areas.
Chloe Leach, Tom Coulthard, Andrew Barkwith, Daniel R. Parsons, and Susan Manson
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5507–5523, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5507-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5507-2021, 2021
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Numerical models can be used to understand how coastal systems evolve over time, including likely responses to climate change. However, many existing models are aimed at simulating 10- to 100-year time periods do not represent a vertical dimension and are thus unable to include the effect of sea-level rise. The Coastline Evolution Model 2D (CEM2D) presented in this paper is an advance in this field, with the inclusion of the vertical coastal profile against which the water level can be altered.
Paula Camus, Ivan D. Haigh, Ahmed A. Nasr, Thomas Wahl, Stephen E. Darby, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2021–2040, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021, 2021
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In coastal regions, floods can arise through concurrent drivers, such as precipitation, river discharge, storm surge, and waves, which exacerbate the impact. In this study, we identify hotspots of compound flooding along the southern coast of the North Atlantic Ocean and the northern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. This regional assessment can be considered a screening tool for coastal management that provides information about which areas are more predisposed to experience compound flooding.
Arya P. Iwantoro, Maarten van der Vegt, and Maarten G. Kleinhans
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 413–429, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-413-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-413-2020, 2020
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We investigated the effect of tides on the morphodynamic evolution of bifurcations in tide-influenced deltas. Using results from a numerical morphodynamic model (Delft3D), we found that tides cause less asymmetric bifurcations and thereby keep both downstream channels open. Our results explain why avulsion rarely occurs in tide-influenced deltas, whereas it occurs more often in river-dominated deltas.
Vo Quoc Thanh, Dano Roelvink, Mick van der Wegen, Johan Reyns, Herman Kernkamp, Giap Van Vinh, and Vo Thi Phuong Linh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 189–212, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-189-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-189-2020, 2020
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The Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) is a rice bowl of not only Vietnam, but also the world; agriculture is the main source of livelihood in the delta. The VMD is facing threats related to water management and hydraulic structures. Dykes are built to protect agricultural crops in the floodplains and may influence water regimes downstream in the VMD. If the VMD floodplains are completely protected by dykes, yearly mean water levels could increase by 3 cm (at Can Tho) and 1.5 cm (at My Thuan).
Alistair Hendry, Ivan D. Haigh, Robert J. Nicholls, Hugo Winter, Robert Neal, Thomas Wahl, Amélie Joly-Laugel, and Stephen E. Darby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3117–3139, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3117-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3117-2019, 2019
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Flooding can arise from multiple sources, including waves, extreme sea levels, rivers, and severe rainfall. When two or more sources combine, the consequences can be greatly multiplied. We find the potential for the joint occurrence of extreme sea levels and river discharge to be greater on the western coast of the UK compared to the eastern coast. This is due to the weather conditions generating each flood source around the UK. These results will help increase our flood forecasting ability.
Ivar R. Lokhorst, Lisanne Braat, Jasper R. F. W. Leuven, Anne W. Baar, Mijke van Oorschot, Sanja Selaković, and Maarten G. Kleinhans
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 883–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-883-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-883-2018, 2018
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In estuaries, mud sedimentation enhances salt marsh accretion. Here we explore system-scale effects of plants and mud on planform shape and size of estuaries. We coupled Delft3D for hydromorphodynamics with our vegetation model and ran controls for comparison. Effects are greatest at the fluvial–tidal transition, where for the first time in a model, a bedload convergence zone formed. Regardless of local vegetation effects, mud and vegetation cause gradual filling of estuaries over time.
Dung Duc Tran, Gerardo van Halsema, Petra J. G. J. Hellegers, Long Phi Hoang, Tho Quang Tran, Matti Kummu, and Fulco Ludwig
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1875–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1875-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1875-2018, 2018
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We modeled hydrological changes under impacts of large-scale dike constructions for intensive rice production in the floodplain of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. Four scenarios show a significant increase in peak water levels in the upstream rivers, but very few water level changes are found downstream. Water balance calculations show where the floodwater goes under four dike construction scenarios. Its impacts on the tidal areas need to be clarified in the future with a 3-D hydraulic model.
Wietse I. van de Lageweg, Stuart J. McLelland, and Daniel R. Parsons
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 203–215, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-203-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-203-2018, 2018
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Sticky sediments are an important component of many rivers and coasts. Stickiness depends on many factors including the presence of micro-organisms, also known as biofilms. We performed a laboratory study to better understand the role of biofilms in controlling sediment transport and dynamics. We find that sand with biofilms requires significantly higher flow velocities to be mobilised compared to uncolonised sand. This will help improve predictions of sediment in response to currents and waves.
Maarten G. Kleinhans, Maarten van der Vegt, Jasper Leuven, Lisanne Braat, Henk Markies, Arjan Simmelink, Chris Roosendaal, Arjan van Eijk, Paul Vrijbergen, and Marcel van Maarseveen
Earth Surf. Dynam., 5, 731–756, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-731-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-731-2017, 2017
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Creating estuaries in the laboratory has been challenging. When the ebb and flood currents are driven by ebb and flood in the sea, they are too weak to move sand. Here we describe how the periodic tilting of an entire experimental set-up leads to ebb and flood currents with similar behaviour as in nature and with enough strength to move sand. This means that this novel set-up now allows for the creation of estuarine landscapes in experiments.
Lisanne Braat, Thijs van Kessel, Jasper R. F. W. Leuven, and Maarten G. Kleinhans
Earth Surf. Dynam., 5, 617–652, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-617-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-617-2017, 2017
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Mud raises concern in the short-term management of estuaries, but it is not known whether cohesive mud affects the long-term development of estuaries. We discovered that a small supply of mud from the river confines the estuary by forming stable mudflats on the sides in centuries, whereas estuaries with only sand continue to grow. Mudflats also reduce the shifting of channels and bars. This implies that changes in mud supply in estuaries may have led to changes in shape and dynamics in the past.
Jannis M. Hoch, Arjen V. Haag, Arthur van Dam, Hessel C. Winsemius, Ludovicus P. H. van Beek, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 117–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-117-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-117-2017, 2017
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Modelling inundations is pivotal to assess current and future flood hazard, and to define sound measures and policies. Yet, many models focus on the hydrologic or hydrodynamic aspect of floods only. We combined both by spatially coupling a hydrologic with a hydrodynamic model. This way we are able to balance the weaknesses of each model with the strengths of the other. We found that model coupling can indeed strongly improve discharge simulation, and see big potential in our approach.
Heiko Apel, Oriol Martínez Trepat, Nguyen Nghia Hung, Do Thi Chinh, Bruno Merz, and Nguyen Viet Dung
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 941–961, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-941-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-941-2016, 2016
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Many urban areas experience both fluvial and pluvial floods, thus this study aims to analyse fluvial and pluvial flood hazards as well as combined pluvial and fluvial flood hazards. This combined fluvial–pluvial flood hazard analysis is performed in a tropical environment for Can Tho city in the Mekong Delta. The final results are probabilistic hazard maps, showing the maximum inundation caused by floods of different magnitudes along with an uncertainty estimation.
W. A. Marra, S. J. McLelland, D. R. Parsons, B. J. Murphy, E. Hauber, and M. G. Kleinhans
Earth Surf. Dynam., 3, 389–408, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-389-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-389-2015, 2015
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Groundwater seepage creates valleys with typical theater-shaped valley heads, which are found on Earth and on Mars. For a better interpretation of these systems, we conducted scale experiments on the formation such valleys. We find that entire landscapes, instead of just the shape of the valleys, provide insights into the source of groundwater. Landscapes filled with valleys indicate a local groundwater source in contrast to sparsely dissected landscapes formed by a distal source of groundwater.
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Short summary
Increased salt intrusion jeopardizes freshwater supply to the Mekong Delta, and the current trends are often inaccurately associated with sea level rise. Using observations and models, we show that salinity is highly sensitive to ocean surge, tides, water demand, and upstream discharge. We show that anthropogenic riverbed incision has significantly amplified salt intrusion, exemplifying the importance of preserving sediment budget and riverbed levels to protect deltas against salt intrusion.
Increased salt intrusion jeopardizes freshwater supply to the Mekong Delta, and the current...