Articles | Volume 6, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-49-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-49-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
A hydroclimatological approach to predicting regional landslide probability using Landlab
Ronda Strauch
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
Erkan Istanbulluoglu
Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
Sai Siddhartha Nudurupati
Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
Christina Bandaragoda
Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
Nicole M. Gasparini
Earth and Environmental Sciences, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, USA
Gregory E. Tucker
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), Boulder, CO, USA
Department of Geological Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
Related authors
Ronda Strauch, Erkan Istanbulluoglu, and Jon Riedel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2477–2495, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2477-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2477-2019, 2019
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Identifying landslide hazards is challenging but important for understanding risks to people and both built and natural resources. We use models to identify landslide hazards based on observed landslides and local site traits such as slope and on physical mechanisms such as soil moisture. Integrating both approaches improves hazard detection by accounting for processes not captured in the physically based model. Hazard maps are made for the North Cascades National Park Complex (Washington, USA).
Tian Gan, Gregory E. Tucker, Eric W. H. Hutton, Mark D. Piper, Irina Overeem, Albert J. Kettner, Benjamin Campforts, Julia M. Moriarty, Brianna Undzis, Ethan Pierce, and Lynn McCready
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2165–2185, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2165-2024, 2024
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This study presents the design, implementation, and application of the CSDMS Data Components. The case studies demonstrate that the Data Components provide a consistent way to access heterogeneous datasets from multiple sources, and to seamlessly integrate them with various models for Earth surface process modeling. The Data Components support the creation of open data–model integration workflows to improve the research transparency and reproducibility.
Sam Anderson, Nicole Gasparini, and Joel Johnson
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 995–1011, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-995-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-995-2023, 2023
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We measured rock strength and amount of fracturing in the two different rock types, sandstones and carbonates, in Last Chance Canyon, New Mexico, USA. Where there is more carbonate bedrock, hills and channels steepen in Last Chance Canyon. This is because the carbonate-type bedrock tends to be more thickly bedded, is less fractured, and is stronger. The carbonate bedrock produces larger boulders than the sandstone bedrock, which can protect the more fractured sandstone bedrock from erosion.
Jeffrey Keck, Erkan Istanbulluoglu, Benjamin Campforts, Gregory Tucker, and Alexander Horner-Devine
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1623, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1623, 2023
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Landslide hazards include both direct impacts associated with the runout extent of the landslide as well as secondary impacts associated with the sediment delivered to downslope channels. Numerous landslide runout and debris flow models exist but few can be used to track sediment or topographic change caused by the landslide. This paper introduces a new landslide runout model, called MassWastingRunout, that is specifically designed to meet these needs.
Nicole M. Gasparini, Katherine R. Barnhart, and Adam M. Forte
Earth Surf. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2023-17, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2023-17, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for ESurf
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Computational landscape evolution models (LEMs) show how landscapes change through time. There are many LEMs in the scientific community, but there are no standards for testing whether LEMs produce correct solutions or comparing output among LEMs. We present a comparison of three LEMs, illustrating both strengths and weaknesses. We hope our examples will motivate the LEM community to develop methods for inter-model comparison, which could help to avoid current and future modeling pitfalls.
Gregory E. Tucker, Eric W. H. Hutton, Mark D. Piper, Benjamin Campforts, Tian Gan, Katherine R. Barnhart, Albert J. Kettner, Irina Overeem, Scott D. Peckham, Lynn McCready, and Jaia Syvitski
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1413–1439, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1413-2022, 2022
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Scientists use computer simulation models to understand how Earth surface processes work, including floods, landslides, soil erosion, river channel migration, ocean sedimentation, and coastal change. Research benefits when the software for simulation modeling is open, shared, and coordinated. The Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS) is a US-based facility that supports research by providing community support, computing tools and guidelines, and educational resources.
Kelly Kochanski, Gregory Tucker, and Robert Anderson
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-205, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-205, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Falling snow does not life flat. When blown by the wind, it forms elaborate structures, like dunes. Where these dunes form, they change the way heat flows through the snow. This can accelerate sea ice melt and climate change. Here, we use both field observations obtained during blizzards in Colorado and simulations performed with a state-of-the-art model, to quantify the impact of snow dunes on Arctic heat flows.
Nathan J. Lyons, Pedro Val, James S. Albert, Jane K. Willenbring, and Nicole M. Gasparini
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 893–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-893-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-893-2020, 2020
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Organisms evolve in ever-changing environments under complex process interactions. We applied a new software modelling tool to assess how changes in river course impact the evolution of riverine species. Models illustrate the climatically and tectonically forced landscape changes that can drive riverine biodiversity, especially where topographic relief is low. This research demonstrates that river course changes can contribute to the high riverine biodiversity found in real-world lowland basins.
Katherine R. Barnhart, Eric W. H. Hutton, Gregory E. Tucker, Nicole M. Gasparini, Erkan Istanbulluoglu, Daniel E. J. Hobley, Nathan J. Lyons, Margaux Mouchene, Sai Siddhartha Nudurupati, Jordan M. Adams, and Christina Bandaragoda
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 379–397, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-379-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-379-2020, 2020
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Landlab is a Python package to support the creation of numerical models in Earth surface dynamics. Since the release of the 1.0 version in 2017, Landlab has grown and evolved: it contains 31 new process components, a refactored model grid, and additional utilities. This contribution describes the new elements of Landlab, discusses why certain backward-compatiblity-breaking changes were made, and reflects on the process of community open-source software development.
Alison R. Duvall, Sarah A. Harbert, Phaedra Upton, Gregory E. Tucker, Rebecca M. Flowers, and Camille Collett
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 177–194, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-177-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-177-2020, 2020
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In this study, we examine river patterns and the evolution of the landscape within the Marlborough Fault System, South Island, New Zealand, where the Australian and Pacific tectonic plates collide. We find that faulting, uplift, river capture and the long-lived nature of the drainage network all dictate river patterns at this site. Based on these results and a wealth of previous geologic studies, we propose two broad stages of landscape evolution over the last 25 million years of orogenesis.
Ronda Strauch, Erkan Istanbulluoglu, and Jon Riedel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2477–2495, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2477-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2477-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Identifying landslide hazards is challenging but important for understanding risks to people and both built and natural resources. We use models to identify landslide hazards based on observed landslides and local site traits such as slope and on physical mechanisms such as soil moisture. Integrating both approaches improves hazard detection by accounting for processes not captured in the physically based model. Hazard maps are made for the North Cascades National Park Complex (Washington, USA).
Kelly Kochanski, Robert S. Anderson, and Gregory E. Tucker
The Cryosphere, 13, 1267–1281, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1267-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1267-2019, 2019
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Wind-blown snow does not lie flat. It forms dunes, ripples, and anvil-shaped sastrugi. These features ornament much of the snow on Earth and change the snow's effects on polar climates, but they have rarely been studied. We spent three winters watching snow move through the Colorado Front Range and present our findings here, including the first time-lapse videos of snow dune and sastrugi growth.
Katherine R. Barnhart, Rachel C. Glade, Charles M. Shobe, and Gregory E. Tucker
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1267–1297, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1267-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1267-2019, 2019
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Terrainbento 1.0 is a Python package for modeling the evolution of the surface of the Earth over geologic time (e.g., thousands to millions of years). Despite many decades of effort by the geomorphology community, there is no one established governing equation for the evolution of topography. Terrainbento 1.0 thus provides 28 alternative models that support hypothesis testing and multi-model analysis in landscape evolution.
Gregory E. Tucker, Scott W. McCoy, and Daniel E. J. Hobley
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 563–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-563-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-563-2018, 2018
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This article presents a new technique for computer simulation of slope forms. The method provides a way to study how events that disturb soil or turn rock into soil add up over time to produce landforms. The model represents a cross section of a hypothetical landform as a lattice of cells, each of which may represent air, soil, or rock. Despite its simplicity, the model does a good job of simulating a range of common of natural slope forms.
Abigail L. Langston and Gregory E. Tucker
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 1–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-1-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-1-2018, 2018
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While vertical incision in bedrock rivers is widely implemented in landscape evolution models, lateral erosion is largely ignored. This makes current models unfit to explain the formation of wide bedrock valleys and strath terraces. In this study we present a fundamental advance in the representation of lateral erosion of bedrock rivers in a landscape evolution model. The model results show a scaling relationship between valley width and drainage area similar to that found in natural systems.
Charles M. Shobe, Gregory E. Tucker, and Katherine R. Barnhart
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4577–4604, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4577-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4577-2017, 2017
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Rivers control the movement of sediment and nutrients across Earth's surface. Understanding how rivers change through time is important for mitigating natural hazards and predicting Earth's response to climate change. We develop a new computer model for predicting how rivers cut through sediment and rock. Our model is designed to be joined with models of flooding, landslides, vegetation change, and other factors to provide a comprehensive toolbox for predicting changes to the landscape.
Jordan M. Adams, Nicole M. Gasparini, Daniel E. J. Hobley, Gregory E. Tucker, Eric W. H. Hutton, Sai S. Nudurupati, and Erkan Istanbulluoglu
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1645–1663, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1645-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1645-2017, 2017
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OverlandFlow is a 2-dimensional hydrology component contained within the Landlab modeling framework. It can be applied in both hydrology and geomorphology applications across real and synthetic landscape grids, for both short- and long-term events. This paper finds that this non-steady hydrology regime produces different landscape characteristics when compared to more traditional steady-state hydrology and geomorphology models, suggesting that hydrology regime can impact resulting morphologies.
Daniel E. J. Hobley, Jordan M. Adams, Sai Siddhartha Nudurupati, Eric W. H. Hutton, Nicole M. Gasparini, Erkan Istanbulluoglu, and Gregory E. Tucker
Earth Surf. Dynam., 5, 21–46, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-21-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-21-2017, 2017
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Many geoscientists use computer models to understand changes in the Earth's system. However, typically each scientist will build their own model from scratch. This paper describes Landlab, a new piece of open-source software designed to simplify creation and use of models of the Earth's surface. It provides off-the-shelf tools to work with models more efficiently, with less duplication of effort. The paper explains and justifies how Landlab works, and describes some models built with it.
Gregory E. Tucker, Daniel E. J. Hobley, Eric Hutton, Nicole M. Gasparini, Erkan Istanbulluoglu, Jordan M. Adams, and Sai Siddartha Nudurupati
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 823–839, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-823-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-823-2016, 2016
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This paper presents a new Python-language software library, called CellLab-CTS, that enables rapid creation of continuous-time stochastic (CTS) cellular automata models. These models are quite useful for simulating the behavior of natural systems, but can be time-consuming to program. CellLab-CTS allows users to set up models with a minimum of effort, and thereby focus on the science rather than the software.
Related subject area
Physical: Geomorphology (including all aspects of fluvial, coastal, aeolian, hillslope and glacial geomorphology)
Implications for the resilience of modern coastal systems derived from mesoscale barrier dynamics at Fire Island, New York
Quantifying the migration rate of drainage divides from high-resolution topographic data
Long-term monitoring (1953–2019) of geomorphologically active sections of Little Ice Age lateral moraines in the context of changing meteorological conditions
Coevolving edge rounding and shape of glacial erratics: the case of Shap granite, UK
Dimensionless argument: a narrow grain size range near 2 mm plays a special role in river sediment transport and morphodynamics
Path length and sediment transport estimation from DEMs of difference: a signal processing approach
Influence of cohesive clay on wave–current ripple dynamics captured in a 3D phase diagram
Statistical characterization of erosion and sediment transport mechanics in shallow tidal environments – Part 1: Erosion dynamics
Statistical characterization of erosion and sediment transport mechanics in shallow tidal environments – Part 2: Suspended sediment dynamics
Geomorphological and hydrological controls on sediment export in earthquake-affected catchments in the Nepal Himalaya
Optimization of passive acoustic bedload monitoring in rivers by signal inversion
Stochastic properties of coastal flooding events – Part 2: Probabilistic analysis
Field monitoring of pore water pressure in fully and partly saturated debris flows at Ohya landslide scar, Japan
Analysis of autogenic bifurcation processes resulting in river avulsion
Bedload transport fluctuations, flow conditions, and disequilibrium ratio at the Swiss Erlenbach stream: results from 27 years of high-resolution temporal measurements
Stochastic properties of coastal flooding events – Part 1: convolutional-neural-network-based semantic segmentation for water detection
Coexistence of two dune scales in a lowland river
Alpine hillslope failure in the western US: insights from the Chaos Canyon landslide, Rocky Mountain National Park, USA
Using repeat UAV-based laser scanning and multispectral imagery to explore eco-geomorphic feedbacks along a river corridor
Numerical modelling of the evolution of a river reach with a complex morphology to help define future sustainable restoration decisions
Method to evaluate large-wood behavior in terms of the convection equation associated with sediment erosion and deposition
Effects of seasonal variations in vegetation and precipitation on catchment erosion rates along a climate and ecological gradient: insights from numerical modeling
On the use of convolutional deep learning to predict shoreline change
Riverine Sediment Response to Deforestation in the Amazon Basin
On the use of packing models for the prediction of fluvial sediment porosity
Automated riverbed composition analysis using deep learning on underwater images
Marsh-induced backwater: the influence of non-fluvial sedimentation on a delta's channel morphology and kinematics
Spatial and temporal variations in rockwall erosion rates derived from cosmogenic 10Be in medial moraines at five valley glaciers around Pigne d'Arolla, Switzerland
Downstream rounding rate of pebbles in the Himalaya
Building a bimodal landscape: bedrock lithology and bed thickness controls on the morphology of Last Chance Canyon, New Mexico, USA
Geotechnical controls on erodibility in fluvial impact erosion
Linear-stability analysis of plane beds under flows with suspended loads
Stream hydrology controls on ice cliff generation, evolution, and survival on debris-covered glaciers
Estimating surface water availability in high mountain rock slopes using a numerical energy balance model
Sediment source and sink identification using Sentinel-2 and a small network of turbidimeters on the Vjosa River
Spatiotemporal bedload transport patterns over two-dimensional bedforms
Ice-buttressing-controlled rock slope failure on a cirque headwall, Lake District, UK
The probabilistic nature of dune collisions in 2D
Shape still matters: rockfall interactions with trees and deadwood in a mountain forest uncover a new facet of rock shape dependency
A process-based model for fluvial valley width
Earthquake contributions to coastal cliff retreat
Morphologic and morphometric differences between gullies formed in different substrates on Mars: new insights into the gully formation processes
Testing the sensitivity of the CAESAR-Lisflood landscape evolution model to grid cell size
Development of a machine learning model for river bed load
Modeling the spatially distributed nature of subglacial sediment transport and erosion
Confinement width and inflow-to-sediment discharge ratio control the morphology and braiding intensity of submarine channels: insights from physical experiments and reduced-complexity models
The influence of dune lee side shape on time-averaged velocities and turbulence
Synoptic-scale to mesoscale atmospheric circulation connects fluvial and coastal gravel conveyors and directional deposition of coastal landforms in the Dead Sea basin
Initial shape reconstruction of a volcanic island as a tool for quantifying long-term coastal erosion: the case of Corvo Island (Azores)
Geospatial modelling of large-wood supply to rivers: a state-of-the-art model comparison in Swiss mountain river catchments
Daniel J. Ciarletta, Jennifer L. Miselis, Julie C. Bernier, and Arnell S. Forde
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 449–475, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-449-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-449-2024, 2024
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We reconstructed the evolution of Fire Island, a barrier island in New York, USA, to identify drivers of landscape change. Results reveal Fire Island was once divided into multiple inlet-separated islands with distinct features. Later, inlets closed, and Fire Island’s landscape became more uniform as human activities intensified. The island is now less mobile and less likely to resist and recover from storm impacts and sea level rise. This vulnerability may exist for other stabilized barriers.
Chao Zhou, Xibin Tan, Yiduo Liu, and Feng Shi
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 433–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-433-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-433-2024, 2024
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The drainage-divide stability provides new insights into both the river network evolution and the tectonic and/or climatic changes. Several methods have been proposed to determine the direction of drainage-divide migration. However, how to quantify the migration rate of drainage divides remains challenging. In this paper, we propose a new method to calculate the migration rate of drainage divides from high-resolution topographic data.
Moritz Altmann, Madlene Pfeiffer, Florian Haas, Jakob Rom, Fabian Fleischer, Tobias Heckmann, Livia Piermattei, Michael Wimmer, Lukas Braun, Manuel Stark, Sarah Betz-Nutz, and Michael Becht
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 399–431, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-399-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-399-2024, 2024
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We show a long-term erosion monitoring of several sections on Little Ice Age lateral moraines with derived sediment yield from historical and current digital elevation modelling (DEM)-based differences. The first study period shows a clearly higher range of variability of sediment yield within the sites than the later periods. In most cases, a decreasing trend of geomorphic activity was observed.
Paul A. Carling
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 381–397, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-381-2024, 2024
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Edge rounding in Shap granite glacial erratics is an irregular function of distance from the source outcrop in northern England, UK. Block shape is conservative, evolving according to block fracture mechanics – stochastic and silver ratio models – towards either of two attractor states. Progressive reduction in size occurs for blocks transported at the sole of the ice mass where the blocks are subject to compressive and tensile forces of the ice acting against a bedrock or till surface.
Gary Parker, Chenge An, Michael P. Lamb, Marcelo H. Garcia, Elizabeth H. Dingle, and Jeremy G. Venditti
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 367–380, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-367-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-367-2024, 2024
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River morphology has traditionally been divided by the size 2 mm. We use dimensionless arguments to show that particles in the 1–5 mm range (i) are the finest range not easily suspended by alluvial flood flows, (ii) are transported preferentially over coarser gravel, and (iii), within limits, are also transported preferentially over sand. We show how fluid viscosity mediates the special status of sediment in this range.
Lindsay Marie Capito, Enrico Pandrin, Walter Bertoldi, Nicola Surian, and Simone Bizzi
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 321–345, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-321-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-321-2024, 2024
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We propose that the pattern of erosion and deposition from repeat topographic surveys can be a proxy for path length in gravel-bed rivers. With laboratory and field data, we applied tools from signal processing to quantify this periodicity and used these path length estimates to calculate sediment transport using the morphological method. Our results highlight the potential to expand the use of the morphological method using only remotely sensed data as well as its limitations.
Xuxu Wu, Jonathan Malarkey, Roberto Fernández, Jaco H. Baas, Ellen Pollard, and Daniel R. Parsons
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 231–247, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-231-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-231-2024, 2024
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The seabed changes from flat to rippled in response to the frictional influence of waves and currents. This experimental study has shown that the speed of this change, the size of ripples that result and even whether ripples appear also depend on the amount of sticky mud present. This new classification on the basis of initial mud content should lead to improvements in models of seabed change in present environments by engineers and the interpretation of past environments by geologists.
Andrea D'Alpaos, Davide Tognin, Laura Tommasini, Luigi D'Alpaos, Andrea Rinaldo, and Luca Carniello
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 181–199, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-181-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-181-2024, 2024
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Sediment erosion induced by wind waves is one of the main drivers of the morphological evolution of shallow tidal environments. However, a reliable description of erosion events for the long-term morphodynamic modelling of tidal systems is still lacking. By statistically characterizing sediment erosion dynamics in the Venice Lagoon over the last 4 centuries, we set up a novel framework for a synthetic, yet reliable, description of erosion events in tidal systems.
Davide Tognin, Andrea D'Alpaos, Luigi D'Alpaos, Andrea Rinaldo, and Luca Carniello
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 201–218, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-201-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-201-2024, 2024
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Reliable quantification of sediment transport processes is necessary to understand the fate of shallow tidal environments. Here we present a framework for the description of suspended sediment dynamics to quantify deposition in the long-term modelling of shallow tidal systems. This characterization, together with that of erosion events, allows one to set up synthetic, yet reliable, models for the long-term evolution of tidal landscapes.
Emma L. S. Graf, Hugh D. Sinclair, Mikaël Attal, Boris Gailleton, Basanta Raj Adhikari, and Bishnu Raj Baral
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 135–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-135-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-135-2024, 2024
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Using satellite images, we show that, unlike other examples of earthquake-affected rivers, the rivers of central Nepal experienced little increase in sedimentation following the 2015 Gorkha earthquake. Instead, a catastrophic flood occurred in 2021 that buried towns and agricultural land under up to 10 m of sediment. We show that intense storms remobilised glacial sediment from high elevations causing much a greater impact than flushing of earthquake-induced landslides.
Mohamad Nasr, Adele Johannot, Thomas Geay, Sebastien Zanker, Jules Le Guern, and Alain Recking
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 117–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-117-2024, 2024
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Hydrophones are used to monitor sediment transport in the river by listening to the acoustic noise generated by particle impacts on the riverbed. However, this acoustic noise is modified by the river flow and can cause misleading information about sediment transport. This article proposes a model that corrects the measured acoustic signal. Testing the model showed that the corrected signal is better correlated with bedload flux in the river.
Byungho Kang, Rusty A. Feagin, Thomas Huff, and Orencio Durán Vinent
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 105–115, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-105-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-105-2024, 2024
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We provide a detailed characterization of the frequency, intensity and duration of flooding events at a site along the Texas coast. Our analysis demonstrates the suitability of relatively simple wave run-up models to estimate the frequency and intensity of coastal flooding. Our results validate and expand a probabilistic model of coastal flooding driven by wave run-up that can then be used in coastal risk management in response to sea level rise.
Shunsuke Oya, Fumitoshi Imaizumi, and Shoki Takayama
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 67–86, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-67-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-67-2024, 2024
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The monitoring of pore water pressure in fully and partly saturated debris flows was performed at Ohya landslide scar, central Japan. The pore water pressure in some partly saturated flows greatly exceeded the hydrostatic pressure. The depth gradient of the pore water pressure in the lower part of the flow was generally higher than the upper part of the flow. We conclude that excess pore water pressure is present in many debris flow surges and is an important mechanism in debris flow behavior.
Gabriele Barile, Marco Redolfi, and Marco Tubino
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 87–103, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-87-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-87-2024, 2024
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River bifurcations often show the closure of one branch (avulsion), whose causes are still poorly understood. Our model shows that when one branch stops transporting sediments, the other considerably erodes and captures much more flow, resulting in a self-sustaining process. This phenomenon intensifies when increasing the length of the branches, eventually leading to branch closure. This work may help to understand when avulsions occur and thus to design sustainable river restoration projects.
Dieter Rickenmann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 11–34, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-11-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-11-2024, 2024
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Field measurements of the bedload flux with a high temporal resolution in a steep mountain stream were used to analyse the transport fluctuations as a function of the flow conditions. The disequilibrium ratio, a proxy for the solid particle concentration in the flow, was found to influence the sediment transport behaviour, and above-average disequilibrium conditions – associated with a larger sediment availability on the streambed – substantially affect subsequent transport conditions.
Byungho Kang, Rusty A. Feagin, Thomas Huff, and Orencio Durán Vinent
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1-2024, 2024
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Coastal flooding can cause significant damage to coastal ecosystems, infrastructure, and communities and is expected to increase in frequency with the acceleration of sea level rise. In order to respond to it, it is crucial to measure and model their frequency and intensity. Here, we show deep-learning techniques can be successfully used to automatically detect flooding events from complex coastal imagery, opening the way to real-time monitoring and data acquisition for model development.
Judith Y. Zomer, Bart Vermeulen, and Antonius J. F. Hoitink
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 1283–1298, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-1283-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-1283-2023, 2023
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Secondary bedforms that are superimposed on large, primary dunes likely play a large role in fluvial systems. This study demonstrates that they can be omnipresent. Especially during peak flows, they grow large and can have steep slopes, likely affecting flood risk and sediment transport dynamics. Primary dune morphology determines whether they continuously or intermittently migrate. During discharge peaks, the secondary bedforms can become the dominant dune scale.
Matthew C. Morriss, Benjamin Lehmann, Benjamin Campforts, George Brencher, Brianna Rick, Leif S. Anderson, Alexander L. Handwerger, Irina Overeem, and Jeffrey Moore
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 1251–1274, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-1251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-1251-2023, 2023
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In this paper, we investigate the 28 June 2022 collapse of the Chaos Canyon landslide in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA. We find that the landslide was moving prior to its collapse and took place at peak spring snowmelt; temperature modeling indicates the potential presence of permafrost. We hypothesize that this landslide could be part of the broader landscape evolution changes to alpine terrain caused by a warming climate, leading to thawing alpine permafrost.
Christopher Tomsett and Julian Leyland
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 1223–1249, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-1223-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-1223-2023, 2023
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Vegetation influences how rivers change through time, yet the way in which we analyse vegetation is limited. Current methods collect detailed data at the individual plant level or determine dominant vegetation types across larger areas. Herein, we use UAVs to collect detailed vegetation datasets for a 1 km length of river and link vegetation properties to channel evolution occurring within the study site, providing a new method for investigating the influence of vegetation on river systems.
Rabab Yassine, Ludovic Cassan, Hélène Roux, Olivier Frysou, and François Pérès
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 1199–1221, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-1199-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-1199-2023, 2023
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Predicting river morphology evolution is very complicated, especially for mountain rivers with complex morphologies such as the Lac des Gaves reach in France. A 2D hydromorphological model was developed to reproduce the channel's evolution and provide reliable volumetric predictions while revealing the challenge of choosing adapted sediment transport and friction laws. Our model can provide decision-makers with reliable predictions to design suitable restoration measures for this reach.
Daisuke Harada and Shinji Egashira
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 1183–1197, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-1183-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-1183-2023, 2023
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This paper proposes a method for describing large-wood behavior in terms of the convection equation and the storage equation, which are associated with active sediment erosion and deposition. Compared to the existing Lagrangian method, the proposed method can easily simulate the behavior of large wood in the flow field with active sediment transport. The method is applied to the flood disaster in the Akatani River in 2017, and the 2-D flood flow computations are successfully performed.
Hemanti Sharma and Todd A. Ehlers
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 1161–1181, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-1161-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-1161-2023, 2023
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Seasonality in precipitation (P) and vegetation (V) influences catchment erosion (E), although which factor plays the dominant role is unclear. In this study, we performed a sensitivity analysis of E to P–V seasonality through numerical modeling. Our results suggest that P variations strongly influence seasonal variations in E, while the effect of seasonal V variations is secondary but significant. This is more pronounced in moderate and least pronounced in extreme environmental settings.
Eduardo Gomez-de la Peña, Giovanni Coco, Colin Whittaker, and Jennifer Montaño
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 1145–1160, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-1145-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-1145-2023, 2023
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Predicting how shorelines change over time is a major challenge in coastal research. We here have turned to deep learning (DL), a data-driven modelling approach, to predict the movement of shorelines using observations from a camera system in New Zealand. The DL models here implemented succeeded in capturing the variability and distribution of the observed shoreline data. Overall, these findings indicate that DL has the potential to enhance the accuracy of current shoreline change predictions.
Anuska Narayanan, Sagy Cohen, and John Robert Gardner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2271, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2271, 2023
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This study investigates Amazon deforestation's profound impact on sediment dynamics. Novel remote sensing data and statistical analyses reveal significant changes, especially in heavily deforested regions, with rapid effects within a year. In less disturbed areas, a 1- to 2-year lag occurs, influenced by natural sediment shifts and human activities. These findings highlight the need to understand human activities' consequences for our planet's future.
Christoph Rettinger, Mina Tabesh, Ulrich Rüde, Stefan Vollmer, and Roy M. Frings
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 1097–1115, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-1097-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-1097-2023, 2023
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Packing models promise efficient and accurate porosity predictions of fluvial sediment deposits. In this study, three packing models were reviewed, calibrated, and validated. Only two of the models were able to handle the continuous and large grain size distributions typically encountered in rivers. We showed that an extension by a cohesion model is necessary and developed guidelines for successful predictions in different rivers.
Alexander A. Ermilov, Gergely Benkő, and Sándor Baranya
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 1061–1095, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-1061-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-1061-2023, 2023
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A novel, artificial-intelligence-based riverbed sediment analysis methodology is introduced that uses underwater images to identify the characteristic sediment classes. The main novelties of the procedure are as follows: underwater images are used, the method enables continuous mapping of the riverbed along the measurement vessel’s route contrary to conventional techniques, the method is cost-efficient, and the method works without scaling.
Kelly M. Sanks, John B. Shaw, Samuel M. Zapp, José Silvestre, Ripul Dutt, and Kyle M. Straub
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 1035–1060, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-1035-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-1035-2023, 2023
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River deltas encompass many depositional environments (like channels and wetlands) that interact to produce coastal environments that change through time. The processes leading to sedimentation in wetlands are often neglected from physical delta models. We show that wetland sedimentation constrains flow to the channels, changes sedimentation rates, and produces channels more akin to field-scale deltas. These results have implications for the management of these vulnerable coastal landscapes.
Katharina Wetterauer and Dirk Scherler
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 1013–1033, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-1013-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-1013-2023, 2023
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In glacial landscapes, debris supply rates vary spatially and temporally. Rockwall erosion rates derived from cosmogenic 10Be concentrations in medial moraine debris at five Swiss glaciers around Pigne d'Arolla indicate an increase in erosion from the end of the Little Ice Age towards deglaciation but temporally more stable rates over the last ∼100 years. Rockwall erosion rates are higher where rockwalls are steep and north-facing, suggesting a potential slope and temperature control.
Prakash Pokhrel, Mikael Attal, Hugh D. Sinclair, Simon M. Mudd, and Mark Naylor
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2157, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2157, 2023
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Pebbles become increasingly rounded during downstream transport in rivers due to abrasion. This study quantifies pebble roundness along the length of two Himalayan rivers. We demonstrate that roundness increases with downstream distance and that the rates are dependent on rock type. We apply this to reconstructing travel distances, and hence size of ancient Himalayan. Results show that the ancient river network was larger than the modern indicating that there has been river capture.
Sam Anderson, Nicole Gasparini, and Joel Johnson
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 995–1011, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-995-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-995-2023, 2023
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We measured rock strength and amount of fracturing in the two different rock types, sandstones and carbonates, in Last Chance Canyon, New Mexico, USA. Where there is more carbonate bedrock, hills and channels steepen in Last Chance Canyon. This is because the carbonate-type bedrock tends to be more thickly bedded, is less fractured, and is stronger. The carbonate bedrock produces larger boulders than the sandstone bedrock, which can protect the more fractured sandstone bedrock from erosion.
Jens M. Turowski, Gunnar Pruß, Anne Voigtländer, Andreas Ludwig, Angela Landgraf, Florian Kober, and Audrey Bonnelye
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 979–994, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-979-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-979-2023, 2023
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Rivers can cut into rocks, and their strength modulates the river's erosion rates. Yet, which properties of the rock control its response to erosive action is poorly understood. Here, we describe parallel experiments to measure rock erosion rates under fluvial impact erosion and the rock's geotechnical properties such as fracture strength, elasticity, and density. Erosion rates vary over a factor of a million between different rock types. We use the data to improve current theory.
Koji Ohata, Hajime Naruse, and Norihiro Izumi
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 961–977, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-961-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-961-2023, 2023
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We investigated the influence of sediment transport modes on the formation of bedforms using theoretical analysis. The results of the theoretical analysis were verified with published data of plane beds obtained by fieldwork and laboratory experiments. We found that suspended sand particles can promote the formation of plane beds on a fine-grained bed, which suggests that the presence of suspended particles suppresses the development of dunes under submarine sediment-laden gravity currents.
Eric Petersen, Regine Hock, and Michael G. Loso
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1913, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1913, 2023
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Ice cliffs are melt hot spots that increase melt rates on debris-covered glaciers which otherwise see a reduction in melt rates. In this study, we show how surface runoff streams contribute to the generation, evolution, and survival of ice cliffs by carving into the glacier and transporting rocky debris. On Kennicott Glacier, Alaska, 31.4 % of streams are actively influenced by streams, while nearly half are within 10 m of streams.
Matan Ben-Asher, Florence Magnin, Sebastian Westermann, Josué Bock, Emmanuel Malet, Johan Berthet, Ludovic Ravanel, and Philip Deline
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 899–915, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-899-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-899-2023, 2023
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Quantitative knowledge of water availability on high mountain rock slopes is very limited. We use a numerical model and field measurements to estimate the water balance at a steep rock wall site. We show that snowmelt is the main source of water at elevations >3600 m and that snowpack hydrology and sublimation are key factors. The new information presented here can be used to improve the understanding of thermal, hydrogeological, and mechanical processes on steep mountain rock slopes.
Jessica Droujko, Srividya Hariharan Sudha, Gabriel Singer, and Peter Molnar
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 881–897, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-881-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-881-2023, 2023
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We combined data from satellite images with data measured from a kayak in order to understand the propagation of fine sediment in the Vjosa River. We were able to find some storm-activated and some permanent sources of sediment. We also estimated how much fine sediment is carried into the Adriatic Sea by the Vjosa River: approximately 2.5 Mt per year, which matches previous findings. With our work, we hope to show the potential of open-access satellite images.
Kate C. P. Leary, Leah Tevis, and Mark Schmeeckle
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 835–847, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-835-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-835-2023, 2023
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Despite the importance of bedforms (e.g., ripples, dunes) to sediment transport, the details of sediment transport on a sub-bedform scale are poorly understood. This paper investigates sediment transport in the downstream and cross-stream directions over bedforms with straight crests. We find that the patterns of bedload transport are highly variable on the sub-bedform scale, which is important for our understanding of the evolution of bedforms with complex crest geometries.
Paul A. Carling, John D. Jansen, Teng Su, Jane Lund Andersen, and Mads Faurschou Knudsen
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 817–833, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-817-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-817-2023, 2023
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Many steep glaciated rock walls collapsed when the Ice Age ended. How ice supports a steep rock wall until the ice decays is poorly understood. A collapsed rock wall was surveyed in the field and numerically modelled. Cosmogenic exposure dates show it collapsed and became ice-free ca. 18 ka ago. The model showed that the rock wall failed very slowly because ice was buttressing the slope. Dating other collapsed rock walls can improve understanding of how and when the last Ice Age ended.
Paul A. Jarvis, Clement Narteau, Olivier Rozier, and Nathalie M. Vriend
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 803–815, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-803-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-803-2023, 2023
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Sand dune migration velocity is inversely proportional to dune size. Consequently, smaller, faster dunes can collide with larger, slower downstream dunes. Such collisions can result in either coalescence or ejection, whereby the dunes exchange mass but remain separate. Our numerical simulations show that the outcome depends probabilistically on the dune size ratio, which we describe through an empirical function. Our numerical predictions compare favourably against experimental observations.
Adrian Ringenbach, Peter Bebi, Perry Bartelt, Andreas Rigling, Marc Christen, Yves Bühler, Andreas Stoffel, and Andrin Caviezel
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 779–801, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-779-2023, 2023
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Swiss researchers carried out repeated rockfall experiments with rocks up to human sizes in a steep mountain forest. This study focuses mainly on the effects of the rock shape and lying deadwood. In forested areas, cubic-shaped rocks showed a longer mean runout distance than platy-shaped rocks. Deadwood especially reduced the runouts of these cubic rocks. The findings enrich standard practices in modern rockfall hazard zoning assessments and strongly urge the incorporation of rock shape effects.
Jens Martin Turowski, Aaron Bufe, and Stefanie Tofelde
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1770, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1770, 2023
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Fluvial valleys are ubiquitous landforms, and understanding their formation and evolution affects a wide range of disciplines, from archaeology over geology to fish biology. Here, we develop a model to predict the width of fluvial valleys for a wide range of geographic conditions. In the model, fluvial valley width is controlled by the two competing factors of lateral channel mobility and uplift. The model complies with available data and yields a broad range of quantitative predictions.
Colin K. Bloom, Corinne Singeisen, Timothy Stahl, Andrew Howell, and Chris Massey
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 757–778, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-757-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-757-2023, 2023
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Earthquakes can cause damaging coastal cliff retreat, but we have a limited understanding of how these infrequent events influence multidecadal retreat. This makes hazard planning a challenge. In this study, we use historic aerial images to measure coastal cliff-top retreat at a site in New Zealand. We find that earthquakes account for close to half of multidecadal retreat at this site, and our results have helped us to develop tools for estimating the influence of earthquakes at other sites.
Rishitosh K. Sinha, Dwijesh Ray, Tjalling De Haas, Susan J. Conway, and Axel Noblet
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 713–730, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-713-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-713-2023, 2023
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Our detailed investigation of Martian gullies formed in different substrates in 29 craters distributed between 30°–75° S latitude suggests that they can be differentiated from one another in terms of (1) morphology and length of alcoves and (2) mean gradient of the gully fans. The comparison between the Melton ratio, alcove length, and fan gradient of Martian and terrestrial gullies suggests that Martian gullies were likely formed by terrestrial debris-flow-like processes in the past.
Christopher J. Skinner and Thomas J. Coulthard
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 695–711, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-695-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-695-2023, 2023
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Landscape evolution models allow us to simulate the way the Earth's surface is shaped and help us to understand relevant processes, in turn helping us to manage landscapes better. The models typically represent the land surface using a grid of square cells of equal size, averaging heights in those squares. This study shows that the size chosen by the modeller for these grid cells is important, with larger sizes making sediment output events larger but less frequent.
Hossein Hosseiny, Claire C. Masteller, Jedidiah E. Dale, and Colin B. Phillips
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 681–693, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-681-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-681-2023, 2023
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It is of great importance to engineers and geomorphologists to predict the rate of bed load in rivers. In this contribution, we used a large dataset of measured data and developed an artificial neural network (ANN), a machine learning algorithm, for bed load prediction. The ANN model predicted the bed load flux close to measured values and better than the ones obtained from four standard bed load models with varying degrees of complexity.
Ian Delaney, Leif Anderson, and Frédéric Herman
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 663–680, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-663-2023, 2023
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This paper presents a two-dimensional subglacial sediment transport model that evolves a sediment layer in response to subglacial sediment transport conditions. The model captures sediment transport in supply- and transport-limited regimes across a glacier's bed and considers both the creation and transport of sediment. Model outputs show how the spatial distribution of sediment and water below a glacier can impact the glacier's discharge of sediment and erosion of bedrock.
Sam Y. J. Huang, Steven Y. J. Lai, Ajay B. Limaye, Brady Z. Foreman, and Chris Paola
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 615–632, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-615-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-615-2023, 2023
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We use experiments and a model to study the effects of confinement width and the inflow-to-sediment discharge ratio on the evolution of submarine braided channels. We find that confinement width controls most of the morphological changes. These trends are consistent for submarine braided channels both with and without confinement width effects and similar to fluvial braided rivers. Furthermore, we built a model that can simulate the flow bifurcation and confluence of submarine braided channels.
Alice Lefebvre and Julia Cisneros
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 575–591, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-575-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-575-2023, 2023
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Underwater dunes are found in various environments with strong hydrodynamics and sandy sediment. Using a numerical model, we investigated how the dune shape influences flow velocity and turbulence. We propose a classification with three types of dunes, depending on their mean lee side angles (low-angle dunes, intermediate-angle dunes and high-angle dunes). We discuss the implications of this classification on the interaction between dune morphology, flow and sediment transport.
Haggai Eyal, Moshe Armon, Yehouda Enzel, and Nadav G. Lensky
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 547–574, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-547-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-547-2023, 2023
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Extracting paleoenvironmets from sedimentologic and geomorphic records is a main goal in Earth sciences. We study a chain of processes connecting causative Mediterranean cyclones, coeval floods, storm waves generated by mesoscale funneled wind, and coastal gravel transport. This causes northward dispersion of gravel along the modern Dead Sea coast, which has also persisted since the late Pleistocene, resulting in beach berms and fan deltas always being deposited north of channel mouths.
Rémi Bossis, Vincent Regard, and Sébastien Carretier
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 529–545, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-529-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-529-2023, 2023
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This study presents a method to calculate the volume of rock eroded by the sea on volcanic islands, by reconstructing their pre-erosion shape and size. The method has been applied on Corvo Island (Azores). We show that before the island was eroded, it was roughly 8 km wide and 1 km high. The island has lost more than 6 km3 of rock and 80 % of its surface. We also show that the erosion of sea cliffs is mainly due to the moderate and most frequent waves.
Nicolas Steeb, Virginia Ruiz-Villanueva, Alexandre Badoux, Christian Rickli, Andrea Mini, Markus Stoffel, and Dieter Rickenmann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 487–509, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-487-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-487-2023, 2023
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Various models have been used in science and practice to estimate how much large wood (LW) can be supplied to rivers. This contribution reviews the existing models proposed in the last 35 years and compares two of the most recent spatially explicit models by applying them to 40 catchments in Switzerland. Differences in modelling results are discussed, and results are compared to available observations coming from a unique database.
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Short summary
We develop a model of annual probability of shallow landslide initiation triggered by soil water from a hydrologic model. Our physically based model accommodates data uncertainty using a Monte Carlo approach. We found elevation-dependent patterns in probability related to the stabilizing effect of forests and soil and slope limitation at high elevations. We demonstrate our model in Washington, USA, but it is designed to run elsewhere with available data for risk planning using the Landlab.
We develop a model of annual probability of shallow landslide initiation triggered by soil water...