Articles | Volume 6, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-49-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-49-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Feb 2018
Research article |
| 07 Feb 2018
| 07 Feb 2018
A hydroclimatological approach to predicting regional landslide probability using Landlab
Ronda Strauch
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
Erkan Istanbulluoglu
Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
Sai Siddhartha Nudurupati
Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
Christina Bandaragoda
Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
Nicole M. Gasparini
Earth and Environmental Sciences, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, USA
Gregory E. Tucker
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), Boulder, CO, USA
Department of Geological Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
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Ronda Strauch, Erkan Istanbulluoglu, and Jon Riedel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2477–2495, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2477-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2477-2019, 2019
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Identifying landslide hazards is challenging but important for understanding risks to people and both built and natural resources. We use models to identify landslide hazards based on observed landslides and local site traits such as slope and on physical mechanisms such as soil moisture. Integrating both approaches improves hazard detection by accounting for processes not captured in the physically based model. Hazard maps are made for the North Cascades National Park Complex (Washington, USA).
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3011, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3011, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
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After a major earthquake struck near the Türkiye/Syria border in February 2023, a powerful storm brought intense rainfall to the region, triggering additional landslides. We used satellite data and a physics-based model to map probabilistic landslide hazard using both coseismic and hydrologic drivers. We also explored how the sequence of these disasters affected landslide risk. Finally, we offer a method for seasonal forecasting of landslide hazard in at-risk areas using the historic climate.
Angel D. Monsalve, Samuel R. Anderson, Nicole M. Gasparini, and Elowyn M. Yager
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3427–3451, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3427-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3427-2025, 2025
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Rivers shape landscapes by moving sediments and changing their beds, but existing computer models oversimplify these processes by only considering erosion. We developed new software that simulates how rivers transport sediments and change over time through both erosion and deposition. This helps scientists and engineers better predict river behavior for water management, flood prevention, and ecosystem protection.
Nicole M. Gasparini, Adam M. Forte, and Katherine R. Barnhart
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1227–1242, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1227-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1227-2024, 2024
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The time it takes for a landscape to adjust to new environmental conditions is critical for understanding the impacts of past and future environmental changes. We used different computational models and methods and found that predicted times for a landscape to reach a stable condition vary greatly. Our results illustrate that reporting how timescales are measured is important. Modelers should ensure that the measurement technique addresses the question.
Jeffrey Keck, Erkan Istanbulluoglu, Benjamin Campforts, Gregory Tucker, and Alexander Horner-Devine
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1165–1191, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1165-2024, 2024
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MassWastingRunout (MWR) is a new landslide runout model designed for sediment transport, landscape evolution, and hazard assessment applications. MWR is written in Python and includes a calibration utility that automatically determines best-fit parameters for a site and empirical probability density functions of each parameter for probabilistic model implementation. MWR and Jupyter Notebook tutorials are available as part of the Landlab package at https://github.com/landlab/landlab.
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Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2165–2185, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2165-2024, 2024
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Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 995–1011, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-995-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-995-2023, 2023
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We measured rock strength and amount of fracturing in the two different rock types, sandstones and carbonates, in Last Chance Canyon, New Mexico, USA. Where there is more carbonate bedrock, hills and channels steepen in Last Chance Canyon. This is because the carbonate-type bedrock tends to be more thickly bedded, is less fractured, and is stronger. The carbonate bedrock produces larger boulders than the sandstone bedrock, which can protect the more fractured sandstone bedrock from erosion.
Gregory E. Tucker, Eric W. H. Hutton, Mark D. Piper, Benjamin Campforts, Tian Gan, Katherine R. Barnhart, Albert J. Kettner, Irina Overeem, Scott D. Peckham, Lynn McCready, and Jaia Syvitski
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1413–1439, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1413-2022, 2022
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Scientists use computer simulation models to understand how Earth surface processes work, including floods, landslides, soil erosion, river channel migration, ocean sedimentation, and coastal change. Research benefits when the software for simulation modeling is open, shared, and coordinated. The Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS) is a US-based facility that supports research by providing community support, computing tools and guidelines, and educational resources.
Kelly Kochanski, Gregory Tucker, and Robert Anderson
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-205, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-205, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Falling snow does not life flat. When blown by the wind, it forms elaborate structures, like dunes. Where these dunes form, they change the way heat flows through the snow. This can accelerate sea ice melt and climate change. Here, we use both field observations obtained during blizzards in Colorado and simulations performed with a state-of-the-art model, to quantify the impact of snow dunes on Arctic heat flows.
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Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 893–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-893-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-893-2020, 2020
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Organisms evolve in ever-changing environments under complex process interactions. We applied a new software modelling tool to assess how changes in river course impact the evolution of riverine species. Models illustrate the climatically and tectonically forced landscape changes that can drive riverine biodiversity, especially where topographic relief is low. This research demonstrates that river course changes can contribute to the high riverine biodiversity found in real-world lowland basins.
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Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 379–397, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-379-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-379-2020, 2020
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Landlab is a Python package to support the creation of numerical models in Earth surface dynamics. Since the release of the 1.0 version in 2017, Landlab has grown and evolved: it contains 31 new process components, a refactored model grid, and additional utilities. This contribution describes the new elements of Landlab, discusses why certain backward-compatiblity-breaking changes were made, and reflects on the process of community open-source software development.
Alison R. Duvall, Sarah A. Harbert, Phaedra Upton, Gregory E. Tucker, Rebecca M. Flowers, and Camille Collett
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 177–194, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-177-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-177-2020, 2020
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Katherine R. Barnhart, Rachel C. Glade, Charles M. Shobe, and Gregory E. Tucker
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Terrainbento 1.0 is a Python package for modeling the evolution of the surface of the Earth over geologic time (e.g., thousands to millions of years). Despite many decades of effort by the geomorphology community, there is no one established governing equation for the evolution of topography. Terrainbento 1.0 thus provides 28 alternative models that support hypothesis testing and multi-model analysis in landscape evolution.
Gregory E. Tucker, Scott W. McCoy, and Daniel E. J. Hobley
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 563–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-563-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-563-2018, 2018
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This article presents a new technique for computer simulation of slope forms. The method provides a way to study how events that disturb soil or turn rock into soil add up over time to produce landforms. The model represents a cross section of a hypothetical landform as a lattice of cells, each of which may represent air, soil, or rock. Despite its simplicity, the model does a good job of simulating a range of common of natural slope forms.
Abigail L. Langston and Gregory E. Tucker
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 1–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-1-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-1-2018, 2018
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While vertical incision in bedrock rivers is widely implemented in landscape evolution models, lateral erosion is largely ignored. This makes current models unfit to explain the formation of wide bedrock valleys and strath terraces. In this study we present a fundamental advance in the representation of lateral erosion of bedrock rivers in a landscape evolution model. The model results show a scaling relationship between valley width and drainage area similar to that found in natural systems.
Charles M. Shobe, Gregory E. Tucker, and Katherine R. Barnhart
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4577–4604, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4577-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4577-2017, 2017
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Rivers control the movement of sediment and nutrients across Earth's surface. Understanding how rivers change through time is important for mitigating natural hazards and predicting Earth's response to climate change. We develop a new computer model for predicting how rivers cut through sediment and rock. Our model is designed to be joined with models of flooding, landslides, vegetation change, and other factors to provide a comprehensive toolbox for predicting changes to the landscape.
Jordan M. Adams, Nicole M. Gasparini, Daniel E. J. Hobley, Gregory E. Tucker, Eric W. H. Hutton, Sai S. Nudurupati, and Erkan Istanbulluoglu
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1645–1663, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1645-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1645-2017, 2017
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OverlandFlow is a 2-dimensional hydrology component contained within the Landlab modeling framework. It can be applied in both hydrology and geomorphology applications across real and synthetic landscape grids, for both short- and long-term events. This paper finds that this non-steady hydrology regime produces different landscape characteristics when compared to more traditional steady-state hydrology and geomorphology models, suggesting that hydrology regime can impact resulting morphologies.
Daniel E. J. Hobley, Jordan M. Adams, Sai Siddhartha Nudurupati, Eric W. H. Hutton, Nicole M. Gasparini, Erkan Istanbulluoglu, and Gregory E. Tucker
Earth Surf. Dynam., 5, 21–46, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-21-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-21-2017, 2017
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Many geoscientists use computer models to understand changes in the Earth's system. However, typically each scientist will build their own model from scratch. This paper describes Landlab, a new piece of open-source software designed to simplify creation and use of models of the Earth's surface. It provides off-the-shelf tools to work with models more efficiently, with less duplication of effort. The paper explains and justifies how Landlab works, and describes some models built with it.
Gregory E. Tucker, Daniel E. J. Hobley, Eric Hutton, Nicole M. Gasparini, Erkan Istanbulluoglu, Jordan M. Adams, and Sai Siddartha Nudurupati
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 823–839, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-823-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-823-2016, 2016
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Octria A. Prasojo, Trevor B. Hoey, Amanda Owen, and Richard D. Williams
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 349–363, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-349-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-349-2025, 2025
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Aljoscha Rheinwalt, Benjamin Purinton, and Bodo Bookhagen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1110, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1110, 2025
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Our study presents a computer-based method to detect and measure pebbles in 3D models reconstructed from camera photos. We tested it in a controlled setup and achieved 98 % accuracy in detecting pebbles. Unlike traditional 2D methods, our approach provides full 3D size and orientation data. This improves sediment analysis and riverbed studies by offering more precise measurements. Our work highlights the potential of 3D modeling for studying natural surfaces.
Aline Zinelabedin, Joel Mohren, Maria Wierzbicka-Wieczorek, Tibor Janos Dunai, Stefan Heinze, and Benedikt Ritter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 257–276, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-257-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-257-2025, 2025
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Alexander B. Prescott, Jon D. Pelletier, Satya Chataut, and Sriram Ananthanarayan
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 239–256, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-239-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-239-2025, 2025
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Jon D. Pelletier, Robert G. Hayes, Olivia Hoch, Brendan Fenerty, and Luke A. McGuire
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 219–238, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-219-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-219-2025, 2025
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We demonstrate that landscapes with more planar initial conditions tend to have lower mean junction angles. Geomorphic processes on alluvial piedmonts result in especially planar initial conditions, consistent with a correlation between junction angles and the presence/absence of Late Cenozoic alluvial deposits and the constraint imposed by the intersection of planar approximations to the topography upslope from tributary junctions. We caution against using junction angles to infer paleoclimate.
Soichi Tanabe and Toshiki Iwasaki
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-103, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-103, 2025
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We try to understand how the sediment supply from the upstream river reach affect the downstream river morphology using a numerical model. If the supplied sediment is composed of variety of size class of particles, a small size bed wave that is composed of mainly fine particles (sorting wave) can propagate to downstream very long distance. However, presence of bars suppresses the effect of sorting wave greatly, and thus the sediment supply has limited role in the downstream river morphology.
Janbert Aarnink, Tom Beucler, Marceline Vuaridel, and Virginia Ruiz-Villanueva
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 167–189, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-167-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-167-2025, 2025
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This study presents a novel convolutional-neural-network approach for detecting instream large wood in rivers, addressing the need for flexible monitoring methods across diverse data sources. Using a database of 15 228 fully labelled images, the model achieved a weighted mean average precision of 67 %. Fine-tuning parameters and sampling techniques can improve performance by over 10 % in some cases, offering valuable insights into ecosystem management.
Julius Reich and Axel Winterscheid
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 191–217, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-191-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-191-2025, 2025
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Analyzing the geometry and the dynamics of riverine bedforms (so-called dune tracking) is important for various fields of application and contributes to sound and efficient river and sediment management. We developed a workflow that enables a robust estimation of bedform characteristics and with which comprehensive sensitivity analyses can be carried out. Using a field dataset, we show that the setting of input parameters in bedform analyses can have a significant impact on the results.
Abhishek Kashyap, Kristen L. Cook, and Mukunda Dev Behera
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 147–166, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-147-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-147-2025, 2025
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Short-lived, high-magnitude flood events across high mountain regions leave substantial geomorphic imprints, which are frequently triggered by excess precipitation, glacial lake outbursts, and natural dam breaches. These catastrophic floods highlight the importance of understanding the complex interaction between climatic, hydrological, and geological forces in bedrock catchments. Extreme floods can have long-term geomorphic consequences on river morphology and fluvial processes.
Gareth G. Roberts
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-307, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-307, 2025
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The use of new Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to learn how landscapes evolve is demonstrated. A few ‘snapshots' of an eroding landscape at different stages of its history provide enough information for AI to ascertain rules governing its evolution. Once the rules are known, predicting landscape evolution is extremely rapid and efficient, providing new tools to understand landscape change.
Caroline Fenske, Jean Braun, François Guillocheau, and Cécile Robin
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 119–146, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-119-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-119-2025, 2025
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We have developed a new numerical model to represent the formation of duricrusts, which are hard mineral layers found in soils and at the surface of the Earth. We assume that the formation mechanism implies variations in the height of the water table and that the hardening rate is proportional to precipitation. The model allows us to quantify the potential feedbacks they generate on the surface topography and the thickness of the regolith/soil layer.
Jens M. Turowski, Fergus McNab, Aaron Bufe, and Stefanie Tofelde
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 97–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-97-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-97-2025, 2025
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Channel belts comprise the area affected by a river due to lateral migration and floods. As a landform, they affect water resources and flood hazard, and they often host unique ecological communities. We develop a model describing the evolution of channel-belt area over time. The model connects the behaviour of the river to the evolution of the channel belt over a timescale of centuries. A comparison to selected data from experiments and real river systems verifies the random walk approach.
Rémi Bossis, Vincent Regard, Sébastien Carretier, and Sandrine Choy
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 71–79, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-71-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-71-2025, 2025
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The erosion of rocky coasts occurs episodically through wave action and landslides, constituting a major natural hazard. Documenting the factors that control the coastal retreat rate over millennia is fundamental to evidencing any change in time. However, the known rates to date are essentially representative of the last few decades. Here, we present a new method using the concentration of an isotope, 10Be, in sediment eroded from the cliff to quantify its retreat rate averaged over millennia.
Jean Vérité, Clément Narteau, Olivier Rozier, Jeanne Alkalla, Laurie Barrier, and Sylvain Courrech du Pont
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 23–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-23-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-23-2025, 2025
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Using a numerical model in 2D, we study how two identical dunes interact with each other when exposed to reversing winds. Depending on the distance between the dunes, they either repel or attract each other until they reach an equilibrium distance, which is controlled by the wind strength, wind reversal frequency, and dune size. This process is controlled by the modification of wind flow over dunes of various shapes, influencing the sediment transport downstream.
Orie Cecil, Nicholas Cohn, Matthew Farthing, Sourav Dutta, and Andrew Trautz
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-1-2025, 2025
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Using computational fluid dynamics, we analyze the error trends of an analytical shear stress distribution model used to drive aeolian transport for coastal dunes, which are an important line of defense against storm-related flooding hazards. We find that compared to numerical simulations, the analytical model results in a net overprediction of the landward migration rate. Additionally, two data-driven approaches are proposed for reducing the error while maintaining computational efficiency.
Joshua M. Wolstenholme, Christopher J. Skinner, David J. Milan, Robert E. Thomas, and Daniel R. Parsons
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3001, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3001, 2024
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Leaky wooden dams are a popular form of natural flood management used to slow the flow of water by increasing floodplain connectivity whilst decreasing connectivity along the river profile. By monitoring two leaky wooden dams in North Yorkshire, UK, we present the geomorphological response to their installation, highlighting that the structures significantly increase channel complexity in response to different river flow conditions.
Hayden L. Jacobson, Danica L. Roth, Gabriel Walton, Margaret Zimmer, and Kerri Johnson
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1415–1446, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1415-2024, 2024
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Loose grains travel farther after a fire because no vegetation is left to stop them. This matters since loose grains at the base of a slope can turn into a debris flow if it rains. To find if grass growing back after a fire had different impacts on grains of different sizes on slopes of different steepness, we dropped thousands of natural grains and measured how far they went. Large grains went farther 7 months after the fire than 11 months after, and small grain movement didn’t change much.
Elizabeth N. Orr, Taylor F. Schildgen, Stefanie Tofelde, Hella Wittmann, and Ricardo N. Alonso
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1391–1413, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1391-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1391-2024, 2024
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Fluvial terraces and alluvial fans in the Toro Basin, NW Argentina, record river evolution and global climate cycles over time. Landform dating reveals lower-frequency climate cycles (100 kyr) preserved downstream and higher-frequency cycles (21/40 kyr) upstream, supporting theoretical predications that longer rivers filter out higher-frequency climate signals. This finding improves our understanding of the spatial distribution of sedimentary paleoclimate records within landscapes.
Fritz Schlunegger, Edi Kissling, Dimitri Tibo Bandou, Guilhem Amin Douillet, David Mair, Urs Marti, Regina Reber, Patrick Schläfli, and Michael Alfred Schwenk
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1371–1389, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1371-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1371-2024, 2024
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Overdeepenings are bedrock depressions filled with sediment. We combine the results of a gravity survey with drilling data to explore the morphology of such a depression beneath the city of Bern. We find that the target overdeepening comprises two basins >200 m deep. They are separated by a bedrock riegel that itself is cut by narrow canyons up to 150 m deep. We postulate that these structures formed underneath a glacier, where erosion by subglacial meltwater caused the formation of the canyons.
Loïs Ribet, Frédéric Liébault, Laurent Borgniet, Michaël Deschâtres, and Gabriel Melun
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3697, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3697, 2024
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This work presents a protocol and a model to get the size of the pebbles in mountain rivers from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle images. A set of 12 rivers located in south-eastern France were photographed to build the model. The results show that the model has little error and should be usable for similar rivers. Grain-size of mountain rivers is an important parameter for environmental diagnostics by mapping the aquatic habitats and for flood management by estimating the pebbles fluxes during floods.
Stefan Hergarten
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1315–1327, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1315-2024, 2024
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Faceted topographies are impressive footprints of active tectonics in geomorphology. This paper investigates the evolution of faceted topographies at normal faults and their interaction with a river network theoretically and numerically. As a main result beyond several relations for the geometry of facets, the horizontal displacement associated with normal faults is crucial for the dissection of initially polygonal facets into triangular facets bounded by almost parallel rivers.
Justin A. Nghiem, Gen K. Li, Joshua P. Harringmeyer, Gerard Salter, Cédric G. Fichot, Luca Cortese, and Michael P. Lamb
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1267–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1267-2024, 2024
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Fine sediment grains in freshwater can cohere into faster-settling particles called flocs, but floc settling velocity theory has not been fully validated. Combining three data sources in novel ways in the Wax Lake Delta, we verified a semi-empirical model relying on turbulence and geochemical factors. For a physics-based model, we showed that the representative grain diameter within flocs relies on floc structure and that heterogeneous flow paths inside flocs increase floc settling velocity.
Jessica Marggraf, Guillaume Dramais, Jérôme Le Coz, Blaise Calmel, Benoît Camenen, David J. Topping, William Santini, Gilles Pierrefeu, and François Lauters
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1243–1266, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1243-2024, 2024
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Suspended-sand fluxes in rivers vary with time and space, complicating their measurement. The proposed method captures the vertical and lateral variations of suspended-sand concentration throughout a river cross-section. It merges water samples taken at various positions throughout the cross-section with high-resolution acoustic velocity measurements. This is the first method that includes a fully applicable uncertainty estimation; it can easily be applied to any other study sites.
Dominic T. Robson and Andreas C. W. Baas
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1205–1226, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1205-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1205-2024, 2024
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Barchans are fast-moving sand dunes which form large populations (swarms) on Earth and Mars. We show that a small range of model parameters produces swarms in which dune size does not vary downwind – something that is observed in nature but not when using earlier models. We also show how the shape of dunes and the spatial patterns they form are affected by wind direction. This work furthers our understanding of the interplay between environmental drivers, dune interactions, and swarm properties.
Jeffrey Keck, Erkan Istanbulluoglu, Benjamin Campforts, Gregory Tucker, and Alexander Horner-Devine
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1165–1191, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1165-2024, 2024
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MassWastingRunout (MWR) is a new landslide runout model designed for sediment transport, landscape evolution, and hazard assessment applications. MWR is written in Python and includes a calibration utility that automatically determines best-fit parameters for a site and empirical probability density functions of each parameter for probabilistic model implementation. MWR and Jupyter Notebook tutorials are available as part of the Landlab package at https://github.com/landlab/landlab.
Ariane Mueting and Bodo Bookhagen
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1121–1143, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1121-2024, 2024
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This study investigates the use of optical PlanetScope data for offset tracking of the Earth's surface movement. We found that co-registration accuracy is locally degraded when outdated elevation models are used for orthorectification. To mitigate this bias, we propose to only correlate scenes acquired from common perspectives or base orthorectification on more up-to-date elevation models generated from PlanetScope data alone. This enables a more detailed analysis of landslide dynamics.
Cho-Hee Lee, Yeong Bae Seong, John Weber, Sangmin Ha, Dong-Eun Kim, and Byung Yong Yu
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1091–1120, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1091-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1091-2024, 2024
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Topographic metrics were used to understand changes due to tectonic activity. We evaluated the relative tectonic activity along the Ulsan Fault Zone (UFZ), one of the most active fault zones in South Korea. We divided the UFZ into five segments, based on the spatial variation in activity. We modeled the landscape evolution of the study area and interpreted tectono-geomorphic history during which the northern part of the UFZ experienced asymmetric uplift, while the southern part did not.
Viktoria Kosmalla, Oliver Lojek, Jana Carus, Kara Keimer, Lukas Ahrenbeck, Björn Mehrtens, David Schürenkamp, Boris Schröder, and Nils Goseberg
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2688, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2688, 2024
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This study analysed seasonal biomechanical traits of marram grass at two coastal dune sites using monthly field and lab data acquired 2022. Differences in density, leaf length, and flower stems were observed, which are unaffected by wind and deemed transferable. These findings enable surrogate model development for numerical and physical experiments alike, where live vegetation is impractical. Results address the knowledge gap how dune stability and erosion resistance are affected by vegetation.
Juditha Aga, Livia Piermattei, Luc Girod, Kristoffer Aalstad, Trond Eiken, Andreas Kääb, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1049–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1049-2024, 2024
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Coastal rock cliffs on Svalbard are considered to be fairly stable; however, long-term trends in coastal-retreat rates remain unknown. This study examines changes in the coastline position along Brøggerhalvøya, Svalbard, using aerial images from 1970, 1990, 2010, and 2021. Our analysis shows that coastal-retreat rates accelerate during the period 2010–2021, which coincides with increasing storminess and retreating sea ice.
Aaron T. Steelquist, Gustav B. Seixas, Mary L. Gillam, Sourav Saha, Seulgi Moon, and George E. Hilley
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1071–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1071-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1071-2024, 2024
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The rates at which rivers erode their bed can be used to interpret the geologic history of a region. However, these rates depend significantly on the time window over which you measure. We use multiple dating methods to determine an incision rate for the San Juan River and compare it to regional rates with longer timescales. We demonstrate how specific geologic events, such as cutoffs of bedrock meander bends, are likely to preserve material we can date but also bias the rates we measure.
Mirjam Schaller, Daniel Peifer, Alexander B. Neely, Thomas Bernard, Christoph Glotzbach, Alexander R. Beer, and Todd A. Ehlers
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2729, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2729, 2024
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This study reports chemical weathering, physical erosion, and total denudation rates from river load data in the Swabian Alb, Southwest Germany. Tributaries to the Neckar River draining to the North show higher rates than tributaries draining to the South into the Danube River causing a retreat of the Swabian Alb escarpment. Observations are discussed in the light of lithology, climate, and topography. The data are further compared to other rates over space and time as well as to global data.
Riccardo Bonomelli, Marco Pilotti, and Gabriele Farina
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2267, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2267, 2024
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Debris flows are fundamental components of the hazard in mountain regions and numerical models must be used for the related risk computation. Most existing commercial software strongly conceptualizes the main characteristics of the flow, leading to an inevitable calibration process, that is time-consuming and difficult to accomplish. This contribution offers some physically based solutions to confine the calibration process and to better understand the implications of the selected choice.
Johannes Leinauer, Michael Dietze, Sibylle Knapp, Riccardo Scandroglio, Maximilian Jokel, and Michael Krautblatter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1027–1048, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1027-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1027-2024, 2024
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Massive rock slope failures are a significant alpine hazard and change the Earth's surface. Therefore, we must understand what controls the preparation of such events. By correlating 4 years of slope displacements with meteorological and seismic data, we found that water from rain and snowmelt is the most important driver. Our approach is applicable to similar sites and indicates where future climatic changes, e.g. in rain intensity and frequency, may alter the preparation of slope failure.
Julien Coatléven and Benoit Chauveau
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 995–1026, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-995-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-995-2024, 2024
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The aim of this paper is to explain how to incorporate classical water flow routines into landscape evolution models while keeping numerical errors under control. The key idea is to adapt filtering strategies to eliminate anomalous numerical errors and mesh dependencies, as confirmed by convergence tests with analytic solutions. The emergence of complex geomorphic structures is now driven exclusively by nonlinear heterogeneous physical processes rather than by random numerical artifacts.
Jingjuan Li, John D. Jansen, Xuanmei Fan, Zhiyong Ding, Shugang Kang, and Marco Lovati
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 953–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-953-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-953-2024, 2024
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In this study, we investigated the geomorphology, sedimentology, and chronology of Tuanjie (seven terraces) and Taiping (three terraces) terraces in Diexi, eastern Tibetan Plateau. Results highlight that two damming and three outburst events occurred in the area during the late Pleistocene, and the outburst floods have been a major factor in the formation of tectonically active mountainous river terraces. Tectonic activity and climatic changes play a minor role.
Hanne Hendrickx, Xabier Blanch, Melanie Elias, Reynald Delaloye, and Anette Eltner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2570, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2570, 2024
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This study introduces a novel AI-based method to track and analyse the movement of rock glaciers and landslides, key indicators of permafrost dynamics in high mountain regions. Using time-lapse images, our approach provides detailed velocity data, revealing patterns that traditional methods miss. This cost-effective tool enhances our ability to monitor geohazards, offering insights into climate change impacts on permafrost and improving safety in alpine areas.
Andrew Hollyday, Maureen E. Raymo, Jacqueline Austermann, Fred Richards, Mark Hoggard, and Alessio Rovere
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 883–905, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-883-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-883-2024, 2024
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Sea level was significantly higher during the Pliocene epoch, around 3 million years ago. The present-day elevations of shorelines that formed in the past provide a data constraint on the extent of ice sheet melt and the global sea level response under warm Pliocene conditions. In this study, we identify 10 escarpments that formed from wave-cut erosion during Pliocene times and compare their elevations with model predictions of solid Earth deformation processes to estimate past sea level.
Gregory A. Ruetenik, Ken L. Ferrier, and Odin Marc
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 863–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-863-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-863-2024, 2024
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Fluvial sediment fluxes increased dramatically in Taiwan during Typhoon Morakot in 2009, which produced some of the heaviest landsliding on record. We analyzed fluvial discharge and suspended sediment concentration data at 87 gauging stations across Taiwan to quantify fluvial sediment responses since Morakot. In basins heavily impacted by landsliding, rating curve coefficients sharply increased during Morakot and then declined exponentially with a characteristic decay time of <10 years.
Nil Carrion-Bertran, Albert Falqués, Francesca Ribas, Daniel Calvete, Rinse de Swart, Ruth Durán, Candela Marco-Peretó, Marta Marcos, Angel Amores, Tim Toomey, Àngels Fernández-Mora, and Jorge Guillén
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 819–839, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-819-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-819-2024, 2024
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The sensitivity to the wave and sea-level forcing sources in predicting a 6-month embayed beach evolution is assessed using two different morphodynamic models. After a successful model calibration using in situ data, other sources are applied. The wave source choice is critical: hindcast data provide wrong results due to an angle bias, whilst the correct dynamics are recovered with the wave conditions from an offshore buoy. The use of different sea-level sources gives no significant differences.
Thomas J. Barnes, Thomas V. Schuler, Simon Filhol, and Karianne S. Lilleøren
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 801–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-801-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-801-2024, 2024
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In this paper, we use machine learning to automatically outline landforms based on their characteristics. We test several methods to identify the most accurate and then proceed to develop the most accurate to improve its accuracy further. We manage to outline landforms with 65 %–75 % accuracy, at a resolution of 10 m, thanks to high-quality/high-resolution elevation data. We find that it is possible to run this method at a country scale to quickly produce landform inventories for future studies.
Eric Petersen, Regine Hock, and Michael G. Loso
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 727–745, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-727-2024, 2024
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Ice cliffs are melt hot spots that increase melt rates on debris-covered glaciers which otherwise see a reduction in melt rates. In this study, we show how surface runoff streams contribute to the generation, evolution, and survival of ice cliffs by carving into the glacier and transporting rocky debris. On Kennicott Glacier, Alaska, 33 % of ice cliffs are actively influenced by streams, while nearly half are within 10 m of streams.
Daniel O'Hara, Liran Goren, Roos M. J. van Wees, Benjamin Campforts, Pablo Grosse, Pierre Lahitte, Gabor Kereszturi, and Matthieu Kervyn
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 709–726, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-709-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-709-2024, 2024
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Understanding how volcanic edifices develop drainage basins remains unexplored in landscape evolution. Using digital evolution models of volcanoes with varying ages, we quantify the geometries of their edifices and associated drainage basins through time. We find that these metrics correlate with edifice age and are thus useful indicators of a volcano’s history. We then develop a generalized model for how volcano basins develop and compare our results to basin evolution in other settings.
Brayden Noh, Omar Wani, Kieran B. J. Dunne, and Michael P. Lamb
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 691–708, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-691-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-691-2024, 2024
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In this paper, we propose a framework for generating risk maps that provide the probabilities of erosion due to river migration. This framework uses concepts from probability theory to learn the river migration model's parameter values from satellite data while taking into account parameter uncertainty. Our analysis shows that such geomorphic risk estimation is more reliable than models that do not explicitly consider various sources of variability and uncertainty.
Cited articles
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Adams, J. M., Gasparini, N. M., Hobley, D. E. J., Tucker, G. E., Hutton, E. W. H., Nudurupati, S. S., and Istanbulluoglu, E.: The Landlab v1.0 OverlandFlow component: a Python tool for computing shallow-water flow across watersheds, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1645–1663, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1645-2017, 2017.
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Baum, R. L., Galloway, D. L., and Harp, E. L.: Landslide and land subsidence hazards to pipelines, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2008-1164, 192 pp., 2008a.
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Short summary
We develop a model of annual probability of shallow landslide initiation triggered by soil water from a hydrologic model. Our physically based model accommodates data uncertainty using a Monte Carlo approach. We found elevation-dependent patterns in probability related to the stabilizing effect of forests and soil and slope limitation at high elevations. We demonstrate our model in Washington, USA, but it is designed to run elsewhere with available data for risk planning using the Landlab.
We develop a model of annual probability of shallow landslide initiation triggered by soil water...
