Articles | Volume 12, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1027-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1027-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
How water, temperature, and seismicity control the preconditioning of massive rock slope failure (Hochvogel)
Johannes Leinauer
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
TUM School of Engineering and Design, Landslide Research Group, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
Michael Dietze
Faculty of Geosciences and Geography, Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
Sibylle Knapp
TUM School of Engineering and Design, Landslide Research Group, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
UNESCO Global Geopark Swabian Alb, Schelklingen, Germany
Riccardo Scandroglio
TUM School of Engineering and Design, Landslide Research Group, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
Maximilian Jokel
TUM School of Engineering and Design, Landslide Research Group, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
Michael Krautblatter
TUM School of Engineering and Design, Landslide Research Group, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
Related authors
Natalie Barbosa, Johannes Leinauer, Juilson Jubanski, Michael Dietze, Ulrich Münzer, Florian Siegert, and Michael Krautblatter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 249–269, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-249-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-249-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Massive sediment pulses in catchments are a key alpine multi-risk component. Combining high-resolution aerial imagery and seismic information, we decipher a multi-stage >130.000 m³ rockfall and subsequent sediment pulses over 4 years, reflecting sediment deposition up to 10 m, redistribution in the basin, and finally debouchure to the outlet. This study provides generic information on spatial and temporal patterns of massive sediment pulses in highly charged alpine catchments.
Bernd Etzelmüller, Justyna Czekirda, Florence Magnin, Pierre-Allain Duvillard, Ludovic Ravanel, Emanuelle Malet, Andreas Aspaas, Lene Kristensen, Ingrid Skrede, Gudrun D. Majala, Benjamin Jacobs, Johannes Leinauer, Christian Hauck, Christin Hilbich, Martina Böhme, Reginald Hermanns, Harald Ø. Eriksen, Tom Rune Lauknes, Michael Krautblatter, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 97–129, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-97-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-97-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is a multi-authored study documenting the possible existence of permafrost in permanently monitored rockslides in Norway for the first time by combining a multitude of field data, including geophysical surveys in rock walls. The paper discusses the possible role of thermal regime and rockslide movement, and it evaluates the possible impact of atmospheric warming on rockslide dynamics in Norwegian mountains.
Felix Pfluger, Samuel Weber, Joseph Steinhauser, Christian Zangerl, Christine Fey, Johannes Fürst, and Michael Krautblatter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2509, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2509, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores permafrost-glaciers interactions with a foucs on its implication for preparing/triggering high-volume rock slope failures. Using the Bliggspitze rock slide as a case study, we demonstrate a new type of rock slope failure mechanism triggered by the uplift of the cold/warm dividing line in polythermal alpine glaciers, a widespread and currently underexplored phenomenon in alpine environments worldwide.
Riccardo Scandroglio, Samuel Weber, Till Rehm, and Michael Krautblatter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1512, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1512, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies confirm that mountain permafrost is reducing, but there is little information on the role of water. This study looks at ten years of weather data and water flow in 50m-deep rock fractures. We precisely quantify the timing and quantities of this flow with a model. For the first time, we estimate pressures generated by water inside rock fractures. Pressures from snowmelt and rain events threaten slope stability; therefore, monitoring water's presence in permafrost areas is crucial.
Maike Offer, Samuel Weber, Michael Krautblatter, Ingo Hartmeyer, and Markus Keuschnig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-893, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-893, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a unique dataset of repeated electrical resistivity tomography and long-term borehole temperature measurements to investigate the complex seasonal water flow in permafrost rockwalls. Our joint analysis shows that permafrost rocks are subject to enhanced pressurised water flow during the melt period. In addition to slow thermal heat conduction, permafrost rocks are subject to push-like warming events, favouring accelerated permafrost degradation and reduced rockwall stability.
Christian H. Mohr, Michael Dietze, Violeta Tolorza, Erwin Gonzalez, Benjamin Sotomayor, Andres Iroume, Sten Gilfert, and Frieder Tautz
Biogeosciences, 21, 1583–1599, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1583-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal temperate rainforests, among Earth’s carbon richest biomes, are systematically underrepresented in the global network of critical zone observatories (CZOs). Introducing here a first CZO in the heart of the Patagonian rainforest, Chile, we investigate carbon sink functioning, biota-driven landscape evolution, fluxes of matter and energy, and disturbance regimes. We invite the community to join us in cross-disciplinary collaboration to advance science in this particular environment.
Natalie Barbosa, Johannes Leinauer, Juilson Jubanski, Michael Dietze, Ulrich Münzer, Florian Siegert, and Michael Krautblatter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 249–269, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-249-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-249-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Massive sediment pulses in catchments are a key alpine multi-risk component. Combining high-resolution aerial imagery and seismic information, we decipher a multi-stage >130.000 m³ rockfall and subsequent sediment pulses over 4 years, reflecting sediment deposition up to 10 m, redistribution in the basin, and finally debouchure to the outlet. This study provides generic information on spatial and temporal patterns of massive sediment pulses in highly charged alpine catchments.
Fabian Walter, Elias Hodel, Erik S. Mannerfelt, Kristen Cook, Michael Dietze, Livia Estermann, Michaela Wenner, Daniel Farinotti, Martin Fengler, Lukas Hammerschmidt, Flavia Hänsli, Jacob Hirschberg, Brian McArdell, and Peter Molnar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4011–4018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4011-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4011-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows are dangerous sediment–water mixtures in steep terrain. Their formation takes place in poorly accessible terrain where instrumentation cannot be installed. Here we propose to monitor such source terrain with an autonomous drone for mapping sediments which were left behind by debris flows or may contribute to future events. Short flight intervals elucidate changes of such sediments, providing important information for landscape evolution and the likelihood of future debris flows.
Sibylle Knapp, Michael Schwenk, and Michael Krautblatter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 1185–1193, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-1185-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-1185-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Flims area in the Swiss Alps has fascinated the researchers with its complex geological history ever since. Especially the order of events related to the Tamins and Flims rockslides has long been debated. This paper presents novel results based on up to 160 m deep geophysical profiles, which show onlaps of the Bonaduz Formation onto the Tamins deposits (Ils Aults) and thus indicate that the Tamins rockslide occurred first. The consecutive evolution of this landscape is shown in four phases.
Michael Dietze, Sebastian Kreutzer, Margret C. Fuchs, and Sascha Meszner
Geochronology, 4, 323–338, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-323-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-323-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The R package sandbox is a collection of functions that allow the creation, sampling and analysis of fully virtual sediment sections, like having a virtual twin of real-world deposits. This article introduces the concept, features, and workflows required to use sandbox. It shows how a real-world sediment section can be mapped into the model and subsequently addresses a series of theoretical and practical questions, exploiting the flexibility of the model framework.
Michael Dietze, Rainer Bell, Ugur Ozturk, Kristen L. Cook, Christoff Andermann, Alexander R. Beer, Bodo Damm, Ana Lucia, Felix S. Fauer, Katrin M. Nissen, Tobias Sieg, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1845–1856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The flood that hit Europe in July 2021, specifically the Eifel, Germany, was more than a lot of fast-flowing water. The heavy rain that fell during the 3 d before also caused the slope to fail, recruited tree trunks that clogged bridges, and routed debris across the landscape. Especially in the upper parts of the catchments the flood was able to gain momentum. Here, we discuss how different landscape elements interacted and highlight the challenges of holistic future flood anticipation.
Shiva P. Pudasaini and Michael Krautblatter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 165–189, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-165-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-165-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first physics-based general landslide velocity model incorporating internal deformation and external forces. Voellmy–inviscid Burgers' equations are specifications of the novel advective–dissipative system. Unified analytical solutions constitute a new foundation of landslide velocity, providing key information to instantly estimate impact forces and describe breaking waves and folding, revealing that landslide dynamics are architectured by advection and reigned by forcing.
Bernd Etzelmüller, Justyna Czekirda, Florence Magnin, Pierre-Allain Duvillard, Ludovic Ravanel, Emanuelle Malet, Andreas Aspaas, Lene Kristensen, Ingrid Skrede, Gudrun D. Majala, Benjamin Jacobs, Johannes Leinauer, Christian Hauck, Christin Hilbich, Martina Böhme, Reginald Hermanns, Harald Ø. Eriksen, Tom Rune Lauknes, Michael Krautblatter, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 97–129, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-97-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-97-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is a multi-authored study documenting the possible existence of permafrost in permanently monitored rockslides in Norway for the first time by combining a multitude of field data, including geophysical surveys in rock walls. The paper discusses the possible role of thermal regime and rockslide movement, and it evaluates the possible impact of atmospheric warming on rockslide dynamics in Norwegian mountains.
Carolin Kiefer, Patrick Oswald, Jasper Moernaut, Stefano Claudio Fabbri, Christoph Mayr, Michael Strasser, and Michael Krautblatter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 9, 1481–1503, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1481-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1481-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides amphibious investigations of debris flow fans (DFFs). We characterize active DFFs, combining laser scan and sonar surveys at Plansee. We discover a 4000-year debris flow record in sediment cores, providing evidence for a 7-fold debris flow frequency increase in the 20th and 21st centuries, coincident with 2-fold enhanced rainstorm activity in the northern European Alps. Our results indicate climate change as being the main factor controlling debris flow activity.
Philipp Mamot, Samuel Weber, Saskia Eppinger, and Michael Krautblatter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 9, 1125–1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1125-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1125-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The mechanical response of permafrost degradation on high-mountain rock slope stability has not been calculated in a numerical model yet. We present the first approach for a model with thermal and mechanical input data derived from laboratory and field work, and existing concepts. This is applied to a test site at the Zugspitze, Germany. A numerical sensitivity analysis provides the first critical stability thresholds related to the rock temperature, slope angle and fracture network orientation.
Doris Hermle, Markus Keuschnig, Ingo Hartmeyer, Robert Delleske, and Michael Krautblatter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2753–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2753-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2753-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Multispectral remote sensing imagery enables landslide detection and monitoring, but its applicability to time-critical early warning is rarely studied. We present a concept to operationalise its use for landslide early warning, aiming to extend lead time. We tested PlanetScope and unmanned aerial system images on a complex mass movement and compared processing times to historic benchmarks. Acquired data are within the forecasting window, indicating the feasibility for landslide early warning.
Michael Krautblatter, Lutz Schirrmeister, and Josefine Lenz
Polarforschung, 89, 69–71, https://doi.org/10.5194/polf-89-69-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/polf-89-69-2021, 2021
Ingo Hartmeyer, Robert Delleske, Markus Keuschnig, Michael Krautblatter, Andreas Lang, Lothar Schrott, and Jan-Christoph Otto
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 729–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-729-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-729-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Climate warming is causing significant ice surface lowering even in the uppermost parts of alpine glaciers. Using terrestrial lidar, we quantify rockfall in freshly exposed cirque walls. During 6-year monitoring (2011–2017), an extensive dataset was established and over 600 rockfall events identified. Drastically increased rockfall activity following ice retreat can clearly be observed as 60 % of the rockfall volume detached from less than 10 m above the glacier surface.
Ingo Hartmeyer, Markus Keuschnig, Robert Delleske, Michael Krautblatter, Andreas Lang, Lothar Schrott, Günther Prasicek, and Jan-Christoph Otto
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 753–768, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-753-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-753-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Rockfall size and frequency in two deglaciating cirques in the Central Alps, Austria, is analysed based on 6-year rockwall monitoring with terrestrial lidar (2011–2017). The erosion rates derived from this dataset are very high due to a frequent occurrence of large rockfalls in freshly deglaciated areas. The results obtained are important for rockfall hazard assessments, as, in rockwalls affected by glacier retreat, historical rockfall patterns are not good predictors of future events.
Philipp Mamot, Samuel Weber, Maximilian Lanz, and Michael Krautblatter
The Cryosphere, 14, 1849–1855, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1849-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1849-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A failure criterion for ice-filled rock joints is a prerequisite to accurately assess the stability of permafrost rock slopes. In 2018 a failure criterion was proposed based on limestone. Now, we tested the transferability to other rocks using mica schist and gneiss which provide the maximum expected deviation of lithological effects on the shear strength. We show that even for controversial rocks the failure criterion stays unaltered, suggesting that it is applicable to mostly all rock types.
Kristen L. Cook and Michael Dietze
Earth Surf. Dynam., 7, 1009–1017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-1009-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-1009-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
UAVs have become popular tools for detecting topographic changes. Traditionally, detecting small amounts of change between two UAV surveys requires each survey to be highly accurate. We take an alternative approach and present a simple processing workflow that produces survey pairs or sets that are highly consistent with each other, even when the overall accuracy is relatively low. This greatly increases our ability to detect changes in settings where ground control is not possible.
Elisabeth Dietze and Michael Dietze
E&G Quaternary Sci. J., 68, 29–46, https://doi.org/10.5194/egqsj-68-29-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/egqsj-68-29-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Sedimentary deposits provide insights into past Earth surface dynamics via the size distribution of mineral grains documenting the erosion, transport and deposition history. This study introduces structured procedures to decipher the distinct grain-size distributions of sediment samples that were mixed during/after deposition, using the free statistical tool EMMAgeo. Compared with other algorithms, EMMAgeo is unique as it provides uncertainty estimates and allows expert knowledge to be included.
Anselm Köhler, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Riccardo Scandroglio, Mathias Bavay, Jim McElwaine, and Betty Sovilla
The Cryosphere, 12, 3759–3774, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3759-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3759-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Snow avalanches show complicated flow behaviour, characterized by several flow regimes which coexist in one avalanche. In this work, we analyse flow regime transitions where a powder snow avalanche transforms into a plug flow avalanche by incorporating warm snow due to entrainment. Prediction of such a transition is very important for hazard mitigation, as the efficiency of protection dams are strongly dependent on the flow regime, and our results should be incorporated into avalanche models.
Philipp Mamot, Samuel Weber, Tanja Schröder, and Michael Krautblatter
The Cryosphere, 12, 3333–3353, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3333-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3333-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Most of the observed failures in permafrost-affected alpine rock walls are likely triggered by the mechanical destabilisation of warming bedrock permafrost including ice-filled joints. We present a systematic study of the brittle shear failure of ice and rock–ice contacts along rock joints in a simulated depth ≤ 30 m and at temperatures from −10 to −0.5 °C. Warming and sudden reduction in rock overburden due to the detachment of an upper rock mass lead to a significant drop in shear resistance.
Michael Dietze
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 669–686, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-669-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-669-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Environmental seismology is the study of the seismic signals emitted by Earth surface processes. This emerging research field is at the intersection of many Earth science disciplines. The overarching scope requires free integrative software that is accepted across scientific disciplines, such as R. The article introduces the R package "eseis" and illustrates its conceptual structure, available functions, and worked examples.
Michael Dietze, Jens M. Turowski, Kristen L. Cook, and Niels Hovius
Earth Surf. Dynam., 5, 757–779, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-757-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-757-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Rockfall is an essential geomorphic process and a hazard in steep landscapes which is hard to constrain with traditional approaches. Seismic methods allow for the detection, location, characterisation and linking of events to triggers by lag times. This new technique reveals 49 rockfalls in 6 months with seasonally varying locations. Freeze–thaw action accounts for only 5 events, whereas 19 rockfalls were caused by rain with a 1 h peak lag time, and 17 events were due to diurnal thermal forcing.
Michael Dietze, Solmaz Mohadjer, Jens M. Turowski, Todd A. Ehlers, and Niels Hovius
Earth Surf. Dynam., 5, 653–668, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-653-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-653-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We use a seismometer network to detect and locate rockfalls, a key process shaping steep mountain landscapes. When tested against laser scan surveys, all seismically detected events could be located with an average deviation of 81 m. Seismic monitoring provides insight to the dynamics of individual rockfalls, which can be as small as 0.0053 m3. Thus, seismic methods provide unprecedented temporal, spatial and kinematic details about this important process.
Wen Nie, Michael Krautblatter, Kerry Leith, Kurosch Thuro, and Judith Festl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1595–1610, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1595-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1595-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Deep-seated landslides are an important and widespread natural hazard within alpine regions and can have a massive impact on infrastructure. Pore water pressure plays an important role in determining the stability of hydro-triggered deep-seated landslides. Here we demonstrate a modified tank model for deep-seated landslides that includes snow and infiltration effects and can effectively predict changes in pore water pressure in alpine environments.
Samuel Weber, Jan Beutel, Jérome Faillettaz, Andreas Hasler, Michael Krautblatter, and Andreas Vieli
The Cryosphere, 11, 567–583, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-567-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-567-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present a 8-year continuous time series of measured fracture kinematics and thermal conditions on steep permafrost bedrock at Hörnligrat, Matterhorn. Based on this unique dataset and a conceptual model for strong fractured bedrock, we develop a novel quantitative approach that allows to separate reversible from irreversible fracture kinematics and assign the dominant forcing. A new index of irreversibility provides useful indication for the occurrence and timing of irreversible displacements.
Related subject area
Physical: Geomorphology (including all aspects of fluvial, coastal, aeolian, hillslope and glacial geomorphology)
Testing floc settling velocity models in rivers and freshwater wetlands
River suspended-sand flux computation with uncertainty estimation using water samples and high-resolution ADCP measurements
Barchan swarm dynamics from a Two-Flank Agent-Based Model
A landslide runout model for sediment transport, landscape evolution, and hazard assessment applications
Tracking slow-moving landslides with PlanetScope data: new perspectives on the satellite's perspective
Topographic metrics for unveiling fault segmentation and tectono-geomorphic evolution with insights into the impact of inherited topography, Ulsan Fault Zone, South Korea
Acceleration of coastal-retreat rates for high-Arctic rock cliffs on Brøggerhalvøya, Svalbard, over the past decade
The impact of bedrock meander cutoffs on 50 kyr scale incision rates, San Juan River, Utah
Large structure simulation for landscape evolution models
Terrace formation linked to outburst floods at the Diexi palaeo-landslide dam, upper Minjiang River, eastern Tibetan Plateau
Width evolution of channel belts as a random walk
Pliocene shorelines and the epeirogenic motion of continental margins: a target dataset for dynamic topography models
Decadal-scale decay of landslide-derived fluvial suspended sediment after Typhoon Morakot
Role of the forcing sources in morphodynamic modelling of an embayed beach
Equilibrium distance from long-range dune interactions
A machine learning approach to the geomorphometric detection of ribbed moraines in Norway
Overdeepening or tunnel valley of the Aare glacier on the northern margin of the European Alps: Basins, riegels, and slot canyons
Stream hydrology controls on ice cliff evolution and survival on debris-covered glaciers
Time-varying drainage basin development and erosion on volcanic edifices
Geomorphic risk maps for river migration using probabilistic modeling – a framework
Evolution of submarine canyons and hanging-wall fans: insights from geomorphic experiments and morphodynamic models
Riverine sediment response to deforestation in the Amazon basin
Physical modeling of ice-sheet-induced salt movements using the example of northern Germany
Geometric constraints on tributary fluvial network junction angles
A new dunetracking tool to support input parameter selection and uncertainty analyses using a Monte Carlo approach
Downstream rounding rate of pebbles in the Himalaya
Automatic detection of instream large wood in videos using deep learning
Post-fire Variability in Sediment Transport by Ravel in the Diablo Range
Landscape response to tectonic deformation and cyclic climate change since ca. 800 ka in the southern Central Andes
Examination of Analytical Shear Stress Predictions for Coastal Dune Evolution
A physics-based model for fluvial valley width
Implications for the resilience of modern coastal systems derived from mesoscale barrier dynamics at Fire Island, New York
Quantifying the migration rate of drainage divides from high-resolution topographic data
Long-term monitoring (1953–2019) of geomorphologically active sections of Little Ice Age lateral moraines in the context of changing meteorological conditions
Coevolving edge rounding and shape of glacial erratics: the case of Shap granite, UK
A simple model for faceted topographies at normal faults based on an extended stream-power law
Dimensionless argument: a narrow grain size range near 2 mm plays a special role in river sediment transport and morphodynamics
Path length and sediment transport estimation from DEMs of difference: a signal processing approach
A numerical model for duricrust formation by water table fluctuations
Influence of cohesive clay on wave–current ripple dynamics captured in a 3D phase diagram
Statistical characterization of erosion and sediment transport mechanics in shallow tidal environments – Part 1: Erosion dynamics
Statistical characterization of erosion and sediment transport mechanics in shallow tidal environments – Part 2: Suspended sediment dynamics
Geomorphological and hydrological controls on sediment export in earthquake-affected catchments in the Nepal Himalaya
Optimization of passive acoustic bedload monitoring in rivers by signal inversion
Stochastic properties of coastal flooding events – Part 2: Probabilistic analysis
Field monitoring of pore water pressure in fully and partly saturated debris flows at Ohya landslide scar, Japan
Analysis of autogenic bifurcation processes resulting in river avulsion
Evidence of slow millennial cliff retreat rates using cosmogenic nuclides in coastal colluvium
Bedload transport fluctuations, flow conditions, and disequilibrium ratio at the Swiss Erlenbach stream: results from 27 years of high-resolution temporal measurements
Stochastic properties of coastal flooding events – Part 1: convolutional-neural-network-based semantic segmentation for water detection
Justin A. Nghiem, Gen K. Li, Joshua P. Harringmeyer, Gerard Salter, Cédric G. Fichot, Luca Cortese, and Michael P. Lamb
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1267–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Fine sediment grains in freshwater can cohere into faster-settling particles called flocs, but floc settling velocity theory has not been fully validated. Combining three data sources in novel ways in the Wax Lake Delta, we verified a semi-empirical model relying on turbulence and geochemical factors. For a physics-based model, we showed that the representative grain diameter within flocs relies on floc structure and that heterogeneous flow paths inside flocs increase floc settling velocity.
Jessica Marggraf, Guillaume Dramais, Jérôme Le Coz, Blaise Calmel, Benoît Camenen, David J. Topping, William Santini, Gilles Pierrefeu, and François Lauters
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1243–1266, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Suspended-sand fluxes in rivers vary with time and space, complicating their measurement. The proposed method captures the vertical and lateral variations of suspended-sand concentration throughout a river cross-section. It merges water samples taken at various positions throughout the cross-section with high-resolution acoustic velocity measurements. This is the first method that includes a fully applicable uncertainty estimation; it can easily be applied to any other study sites.
Dominic T. Robson and Andreas C. W. Baas
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1205–1226, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1205-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1205-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Barchans are fast-moving sand dunes which form large populations (swarms) on Earth and Mars. We show that a small range of model parameters produces swarms in which dune size does not vary downwind – something that is observed in nature but not when using earlier models. We also show how the shape of dunes and the spatial patterns they form are affected by wind direction. This work furthers our understanding of the interplay between environmental drivers, dune interactions, and swarm properties.
Jeffrey Keck, Erkan Istanbulluoglu, Benjamin Campforts, Gregory Tucker, and Alexander Horner-Devine
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1165–1191, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
MassWastingRunout (MWR) is a new landslide runout model designed for sediment transport, landscape evolution, and hazard assessment applications. MWR is written in Python and includes a calibration utility that automatically determines best-fit parameters for a site and empirical probability density functions of each parameter for probabilistic model implementation. MWR and Jupyter Notebook tutorials are available as part of the Landlab package at https://github.com/landlab/landlab.
Ariane Mueting and Bodo Bookhagen
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1121–1143, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1121-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the use of optical PlanetScope data for offset tracking of the Earth's surface movement. We found that co-registration accuracy is locally degraded when outdated elevation models are used for orthorectification. To mitigate this bias, we propose to only correlate scenes acquired from common perspectives or base orthorectification on more up-to-date elevation models generated from PlanetScope data alone. This enables a more detailed analysis of landslide dynamics.
Cho-Hee Lee, Yeong Bae Seong, John Weber, Sangmin Ha, Dong-Eun Kim, and Byung Yong Yu
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1091–1120, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1091-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1091-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Topographic metrics were used to understand changes due to tectonic activity. We evaluated the relative tectonic activity along the Ulsan Fault Zone (UFZ), one of the most active fault zones in South Korea. We divided the UFZ into five segments, based on the spatial variation in activity. We modeled the landscape evolution of the study area and interpreted tectono-geomorphic history during which the northern part of the UFZ experienced asymmetric uplift, while the southern part did not.
Juditha Aga, Livia Piermattei, Luc Girod, Kristoffer Aalstad, Trond Eiken, Andreas Kääb, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1049–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1049-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal rock cliffs on Svalbard are considered to be fairly stable; however, long-term trends in coastal-retreat rates remain unknown. This study examines changes in the coastline position along Brøggerhalvøya, Svalbard, using aerial images from 1970, 1990, 2010, and 2021. Our analysis shows that coastal-retreat rates accelerate during the period 2010–2021, which coincides with increasing storminess and retreating sea ice.
Aaron T. Steelquist, Gustav B. Seixas, Mary L. Gillam, Sourav Saha, Seulgi Moon, and George E. Hilley
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1071–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1071-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1071-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The rates at which rivers erode their bed can be used to interpret the geologic history of a region. However, these rates depend significantly on the time window over which you measure. We use multiple dating methods to determine an incision rate for the San Juan River and compare it to regional rates with longer timescales. We demonstrate how specific geologic events, such as cutoffs of bedrock meander bends, are likely to preserve material we can date but also bias the rates we measure.
Julien Coatléven and Benoit Chauveau
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 995–1026, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-995-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-995-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The aim of this paper is to explain how to incorporate classical water flow routines into landscape evolution models while keeping numerical errors under control. The key idea is to adapt filtering strategies to eliminate anomalous numerical errors and mesh dependencies, as confirmed by convergence tests with analytic solutions. The emergence of complex geomorphic structures is now driven exclusively by nonlinear heterogeneous physical processes rather than by random numerical artifacts.
Jingjuan Li, John D. Jansen, Xuanmei Fan, Zhiyong Ding, Shugang Kang, and Marco Lovati
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 953–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-953-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-953-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we investigated the geomorphology, sedimentology, and chronology of Tuanjie (seven terraces) and Taiping (three terraces) terraces in Diexi, eastern Tibetan Plateau. Results highlight that two damming and three outburst events occurred in the area during the late Pleistocene, and the outburst floods have been a major factor in the formation of tectonically active mountainous river terraces. Tectonic activity and climatic changes play a minor role.
Jens Martin Turowski, Fergus McNab, Aaron Bufe, and Stefanie Tofelde
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2342, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2342, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Channel belts comprise the area that is affected by a river due to lateral migration and floods. As a landform, they affect local water resources, flood hazard, and often host unique ecological communities. Here, we develop a model describing the evolution of channel belt area over time. The model connects the behaviour of the river to the evolution of the channel belt over a timescale of centuries. A comparison to selected data from experiments and real river systems is favourable.
Andrew Hollyday, Maureen E. Raymo, Jacqueline Austermann, Fred Richards, Mark Hoggard, and Alessio Rovere
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 883–905, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-883-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-883-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Sea level was significantly higher during the Pliocene epoch, around 3 million years ago. The present-day elevations of shorelines that formed in the past provide a data constraint on the extent of ice sheet melt and the global sea level response under warm Pliocene conditions. In this study, we identify 10 escarpments that formed from wave-cut erosion during Pliocene times and compare their elevations with model predictions of solid Earth deformation processes to estimate past sea level.
Gregory A. Ruetenik, Ken L. Ferrier, and Odin Marc
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 863–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-863-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-863-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Fluvial sediment fluxes increased dramatically in Taiwan during Typhoon Morakot in 2009, which produced some of the heaviest landsliding on record. We analyzed fluvial discharge and suspended sediment concentration data at 87 gauging stations across Taiwan to quantify fluvial sediment responses since Morakot. In basins heavily impacted by landsliding, rating curve coefficients sharply increased during Morakot and then declined exponentially with a characteristic decay time of <10 years.
Nil Carrion-Bertran, Albert Falqués, Francesca Ribas, Daniel Calvete, Rinse de Swart, Ruth Durán, Candela Marco-Peretó, Marta Marcos, Angel Amores, Tim Toomey, Àngels Fernández-Mora, and Jorge Guillén
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 819–839, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-819-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-819-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The sensitivity to the wave and sea-level forcing sources in predicting a 6-month embayed beach evolution is assessed using two different morphodynamic models. After a successful model calibration using in situ data, other sources are applied. The wave source choice is critical: hindcast data provide wrong results due to an angle bias, whilst the correct dynamics are recovered with the wave conditions from an offshore buoy. The use of different sea-level sources gives no significant differences.
Jean Vérité, Clément Narteau, Olivier Rozier, Jeanne Alkalla, Laurie Barrier, and Sylvain Courrech du Pont
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1634, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using a numerical model in 2D, we study how two identical dunes interact with each other when exposed to reversing winds. Depending on the distance between the dunes, they either repel or attract each other until they reach an equilibrium distance, which is controlled by the wind strength, wind reversal frequency and dune size. This process is controlled by the modification of wind flow over dunes of various shape, influencing the sediment transport downstream.
Thomas J. Barnes, Thomas V. Schuler, Simon Filhol, and Karianne S. Lilleøren
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 801–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-801-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-801-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we use machine learning to automatically outline landforms based on their characteristics. We test several methods to identify the most accurate and then proceed to develop the most accurate to improve its accuracy further. We manage to outline landforms with 65 %–75 % accuracy, at a resolution of 10 m, thanks to high-quality/high-resolution elevation data. We find that it is possible to run this method at a country scale to quickly produce landform inventories for future studies.
Fritz Schlunegger, Edi Kissling, Dimitri Tibo Bandou, Guilhem Amin Douillet, David Mair, Urs Marti, Regina Reber, Patrick Fabian Schläfli, and Michael Alfred Schwenk
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-683, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-683, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Overdeepenings are bedrock depressions filled with sediment. We combine the results of a gravity survey with drilling data to explore the morphology of such a depression beneath the city of Bern. We find that the target overdeepening comprises two basins >200 m deep. They are separated by a bedrock riegel that itself is cut by narrow canyons up to 150 m deep. We postulate that these structures formed underneath a glacier, where erosion by subglacial meltwater caused the formation of the canyons.
Eric Petersen, Regine Hock, and Michael G. Loso
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 727–745, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-727-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ice cliffs are melt hot spots that increase melt rates on debris-covered glaciers which otherwise see a reduction in melt rates. In this study, we show how surface runoff streams contribute to the generation, evolution, and survival of ice cliffs by carving into the glacier and transporting rocky debris. On Kennicott Glacier, Alaska, 33 % of ice cliffs are actively influenced by streams, while nearly half are within 10 m of streams.
Daniel O'Hara, Liran Goren, Roos M. J. van Wees, Benjamin Campforts, Pablo Grosse, Pierre Lahitte, Gabor Kereszturi, and Matthieu Kervyn
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 709–726, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-709-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-709-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how volcanic edifices develop drainage basins remains unexplored in landscape evolution. Using digital evolution models of volcanoes with varying ages, we quantify the geometries of their edifices and associated drainage basins through time. We find that these metrics correlate with edifice age and are thus useful indicators of a volcano’s history. We then develop a generalized model for how volcano basins develop and compare our results to basin evolution in other settings.
Brayden Noh, Omar Wani, Kieran B. J. Dunne, and Michael P. Lamb
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 691–708, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-691-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-691-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we propose a framework for generating risk maps that provide the probabilities of erosion due to river migration. This framework uses concepts from probability theory to learn the river migration model's parameter values from satellite data while taking into account parameter uncertainty. Our analysis shows that such geomorphic risk estimation is more reliable than models that do not explicitly consider various sources of variability and uncertainty.
Steven Y. J. Lai, David Amblas, Aaron Micallef, and Hervé Capart
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 621–640, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-621-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-621-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the creation of submarine canyons and hanging-wall fans on active faults, which can be defined by gravity-dominated breaching and underflow-dominated diffusion processes. The study reveals the self-similarity in canyon–fan long profiles, uncovers Hack’s scaling relationship and proposes a formula to estimate fan volume using canyon length. This is validated by global data from source-to-sink systems, providing insights into deep-water sedimentary processes.
Anuska Narayanan, Sagy Cohen, and John R. Gardner
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 581–599, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-581-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-581-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the profound impact of deforestation in the Amazon on sediment dynamics. Novel remote sensing data and statistical analyses reveal significant changes, especially in heavily deforested regions, with rapid effects within a year. In less disturbed areas, a 1- to 2-year lag occurs, influenced by natural sediment shifts and human activities. These findings highlight the need to understand the consequences of human activity for our planet's future.
Jacob Hardt, Tim P. Dooley, and Michael R. Hudec
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 559–579, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-559-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-559-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the reaction of salt structures on ice sheet transgressions. We used a series of sandbox models that enabled us to experiment with scaled-down versions of salt bodies from northern Germany. The strongest reactions occurred when large salt pillows were partly covered by the ice load. Subsurface salt structures may play an important role in the energy transition, e.g., as energy storage. Thus, it is important to understand all processes that affect their stability.
Jon D. Pelletier, Robert G. Hayes, Olivia Hoch, Brendan Fenerty, and Luke A. McGuire
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1153, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1153, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
On the gently sloping landscapes next to mountain fronts, junction angles tend to be lower (more acute), while in bedrock landscapes where the initial landscape or tectonic forcing is likely more spatially variable, junction angles tend to be larger (more obtuse). We demonstrate this using an analysis of ~20 million junction angles for the U.S.A., augmented by analyses of the Loess Plateau, China, and synthetic landscapes.
Julius Reich and Axel Winterscheid
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-579, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-579, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Analysing the geometry and the dynamics of riverine bedforms (so-called dunetracking) is important for various fields of application and contributes to a sound and efficient river and sediment management. We developed a new tool, which enables a robust estimation of bedform characteristics and with which comprehensive sensitivity analyses can be carried out. Using a test dataset, we show that the selection of input parameters of dunetracking tools can have a significant impact on the results.
Prakash Pokhrel, Mikael Attal, Hugh D. Sinclair, Simon M. Mudd, and Mark Naylor
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 515–536, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-515-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-515-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Pebbles become increasingly rounded during downstream transport in rivers due to abrasion. This study quantifies pebble roundness along the length of two Himalayan rivers. We demonstrate that roundness increases with downstream distance and that the rates are dependent on rock type. We apply this to reconstructing travel distances and hence the size of ancient Himalaya. Results show that the ancient river network was larger than the modern one, indicating that there has been river capture.
Janbert Aarnink, Tom Beucler, Marceline Vuaridel, and Virginia Ruiz-Villanueva
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-792, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-792, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a novel CNN approach for detecting instream large wood in rivers, addressing the need for flexible monitoring methods that can be used on a variety of data sources. Leveraging a database of 15,228 fully labeled images, our model achieved a 67 % weighted mean average precision. Fine-tuning parameters and sampling techniques offer potential for further performance enhancement of more than 10 % in certain cases, promising valuable insights for ecosystem management.
Hayden L. Jacobson, Danica L. Roth, Gabriel Walton, Margaret Zimmer, and Kerri Johnson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2694, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2694, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Loose grains travel farther after a fire because no vegetation is left to stop them. This matters since loose grains at the base of a slope can turn into a debris flow if it rains. To find if grass growing back after a fire had different impacts on grains of different sizes on slopes of different steepness, we dropped thousands of natural grains and measured how far they went. Large grains went farther 7 months after the fire than 11 months after, and small grain movement didn’t change much.
Elizabeth Orr, Taylor Schildgen, Stefanie Tofelde, Hella Wittmann, and Ricardo Alonso
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-784, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-784, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Fluvial terraces and alluvial fans in the Toro Basin, NW Argentina record river evolution and global climate cycles over time. Landform dating reveals lower-frequency climate cycles (100-kyr) preserved downstream and higher-frequency cycles (21/40-kyr) upstream, supporting theoretical predications that longer rivers filter out higher-frequency climate signals. This finding improves our understanding of the spatial distribution of sedimentary paleoclimate records within landscapes.
Orie Cecil, Nicholas Cohn, Matthew Farthing, Sourav Dutta, and Andrew Trautz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-855, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-855, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using computational fluid dynamics, we analyze the error trends of an analytical shear stress distribution model used to drive aeolian transport for coastal dunes which are an important line of defense against storm related flooding hazards. We find that compared to numerical simulations, the analytical model results in a net overprediction of the landward migration rate. Additionally, two data-driven approaches are proposed for reducing the error while maintaining computational efficiency.
Jens Martin Turowski, Aaron Bufe, and Stefanie Tofelde
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 493–514, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-493-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-493-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Fluvial valleys are ubiquitous landforms, and understanding their formation and evolution affects a wide range of disciplines from archaeology and geology to fish biology. Here, we develop a model to predict the width of fluvial valleys for a wide range of geographic conditions. In the model, fluvial valley width is controlled by the two competing factors of lateral channel mobility and uplift. The model complies with available data and yields a broad range of quantitative predictions.
Daniel J. Ciarletta, Jennifer L. Miselis, Julie C. Bernier, and Arnell S. Forde
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 449–475, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-449-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-449-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstructed the evolution of Fire Island, a barrier island in New York, USA, to identify drivers of landscape change. Results reveal Fire Island was once divided into multiple inlet-separated islands with distinct features. Later, inlets closed, and Fire Island’s landscape became more uniform as human activities intensified. The island is now less mobile and less likely to resist and recover from storm impacts and sea level rise. This vulnerability may exist for other stabilized barriers.
Chao Zhou, Xibin Tan, Yiduo Liu, and Feng Shi
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 433–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-433-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-433-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The drainage-divide stability provides new insights into both the river network evolution and the tectonic and/or climatic changes. Several methods have been proposed to determine the direction of drainage-divide migration. However, how to quantify the migration rate of drainage divides remains challenging. In this paper, we propose a new method to calculate the migration rate of drainage divides from high-resolution topographic data.
Moritz Altmann, Madlene Pfeiffer, Florian Haas, Jakob Rom, Fabian Fleischer, Tobias Heckmann, Livia Piermattei, Michael Wimmer, Lukas Braun, Manuel Stark, Sarah Betz-Nutz, and Michael Becht
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 399–431, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-399-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-399-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We show a long-term erosion monitoring of several sections on Little Ice Age lateral moraines with derived sediment yield from historical and current digital elevation modelling (DEM)-based differences. The first study period shows a clearly higher range of variability of sediment yield within the sites than the later periods. In most cases, a decreasing trend of geomorphic activity was observed.
Paul A. Carling
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 381–397, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-381-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Edge rounding in Shap granite glacial erratics is an irregular function of distance from the source outcrop in northern England, UK. Block shape is conservative, evolving according to block fracture mechanics – stochastic and silver ratio models – towards either of two attractor states. Progressive reduction in size occurs for blocks transported at the sole of the ice mass where the blocks are subject to compressive and tensile forces of the ice acting against a bedrock or till surface.
Stefan Hergarten
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-336, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-336, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Faceted topographies are impressing footprints of active tectonics in geomorphology. This paper investigates the evolution of faceted topographies at normal faults and its interaction with the river network theoretically and numerically. As a main result beyond several relations for the the geometry of facets, the horizontal displacement associated to normal faults is crucial for the dissection of initially polygonal facets into triangular facets bounded by almost parallel rivers.
Gary Parker, Chenge An, Michael P. Lamb, Marcelo H. Garcia, Elizabeth H. Dingle, and Jeremy G. Venditti
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 367–380, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-367-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-367-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
River morphology has traditionally been divided by the size 2 mm. We use dimensionless arguments to show that particles in the 1–5 mm range (i) are the finest range not easily suspended by alluvial flood flows, (ii) are transported preferentially over coarser gravel, and (iii), within limits, are also transported preferentially over sand. We show how fluid viscosity mediates the special status of sediment in this range.
Lindsay Marie Capito, Enrico Pandrin, Walter Bertoldi, Nicola Surian, and Simone Bizzi
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 321–345, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-321-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-321-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose that the pattern of erosion and deposition from repeat topographic surveys can be a proxy for path length in gravel-bed rivers. With laboratory and field data, we applied tools from signal processing to quantify this periodicity and used these path length estimates to calculate sediment transport using the morphological method. Our results highlight the potential to expand the use of the morphological method using only remotely sensed data as well as its limitations.
Caroline Fenske, Jean Braun, François Guillocheau, and Cécile Robin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-160, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-160, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We have developed a new numerical model to represent the formation of ferricretes which are iron-rich, hard layers found in soils and at the surface of the Earth. We assume that the formation mechanism implies variations in the height of the water table and that the hardening rate is proportional to precipitation. The model allows us to quantify the potential feedbacks they generate on the surface topography and the thickness of the regolith/soil layer.
Xuxu Wu, Jonathan Malarkey, Roberto Fernández, Jaco H. Baas, Ellen Pollard, and Daniel R. Parsons
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 231–247, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-231-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-231-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The seabed changes from flat to rippled in response to the frictional influence of waves and currents. This experimental study has shown that the speed of this change, the size of ripples that result and even whether ripples appear also depend on the amount of sticky mud present. This new classification on the basis of initial mud content should lead to improvements in models of seabed change in present environments by engineers and the interpretation of past environments by geologists.
Andrea D'Alpaos, Davide Tognin, Laura Tommasini, Luigi D'Alpaos, Andrea Rinaldo, and Luca Carniello
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 181–199, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-181-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-181-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Sediment erosion induced by wind waves is one of the main drivers of the morphological evolution of shallow tidal environments. However, a reliable description of erosion events for the long-term morphodynamic modelling of tidal systems is still lacking. By statistically characterizing sediment erosion dynamics in the Venice Lagoon over the last 4 centuries, we set up a novel framework for a synthetic, yet reliable, description of erosion events in tidal systems.
Davide Tognin, Andrea D'Alpaos, Luigi D'Alpaos, Andrea Rinaldo, and Luca Carniello
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 201–218, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-201-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-201-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Reliable quantification of sediment transport processes is necessary to understand the fate of shallow tidal environments. Here we present a framework for the description of suspended sediment dynamics to quantify deposition in the long-term modelling of shallow tidal systems. This characterization, together with that of erosion events, allows one to set up synthetic, yet reliable, models for the long-term evolution of tidal landscapes.
Emma L. S. Graf, Hugh D. Sinclair, Mikaël Attal, Boris Gailleton, Basanta Raj Adhikari, and Bishnu Raj Baral
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 135–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-135-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-135-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using satellite images, we show that, unlike other examples of earthquake-affected rivers, the rivers of central Nepal experienced little increase in sedimentation following the 2015 Gorkha earthquake. Instead, a catastrophic flood occurred in 2021 that buried towns and agricultural land under up to 10 m of sediment. We show that intense storms remobilised glacial sediment from high elevations causing much a greater impact than flushing of earthquake-induced landslides.
Mohamad Nasr, Adele Johannot, Thomas Geay, Sebastien Zanker, Jules Le Guern, and Alain Recking
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 117–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-117-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrophones are used to monitor sediment transport in the river by listening to the acoustic noise generated by particle impacts on the riverbed. However, this acoustic noise is modified by the river flow and can cause misleading information about sediment transport. This article proposes a model that corrects the measured acoustic signal. Testing the model showed that the corrected signal is better correlated with bedload flux in the river.
Byungho Kang, Rusty A. Feagin, Thomas Huff, and Orencio Durán Vinent
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 105–115, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-105-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-105-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We provide a detailed characterization of the frequency, intensity and duration of flooding events at a site along the Texas coast. Our analysis demonstrates the suitability of relatively simple wave run-up models to estimate the frequency and intensity of coastal flooding. Our results validate and expand a probabilistic model of coastal flooding driven by wave run-up that can then be used in coastal risk management in response to sea level rise.
Shunsuke Oya, Fumitoshi Imaizumi, and Shoki Takayama
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 67–86, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-67-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-67-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The monitoring of pore water pressure in fully and partly saturated debris flows was performed at Ohya landslide scar, central Japan. The pore water pressure in some partly saturated flows greatly exceeded the hydrostatic pressure. The depth gradient of the pore water pressure in the lower part of the flow was generally higher than the upper part of the flow. We conclude that excess pore water pressure is present in many debris flow surges and is an important mechanism in debris flow behavior.
Gabriele Barile, Marco Redolfi, and Marco Tubino
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 87–103, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-87-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-87-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
River bifurcations often show the closure of one branch (avulsion), whose causes are still poorly understood. Our model shows that when one branch stops transporting sediments, the other considerably erodes and captures much more flow, resulting in a self-sustaining process. This phenomenon intensifies when increasing the length of the branches, eventually leading to branch closure. This work may help to understand when avulsions occur and thus to design sustainable river restoration projects.
Rémi Bossis, Vincent Regard, Sébastien Carretier, and Sandrine Choy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3020, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3020, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The erosion of rocky coasts occurs episodically through wave action and landslides, constituting a major natural hazard. Documenting the factors that control the coastal retreat rate over millennia is fundamental to evidencing any change in time. However, the known rates to date are essentially representative of the last few decades. Here, we present a new method using the concentration of an isotope, 10Be in sediment eroded from the cliff to quantify its retreat rate averaged over millennia.
Dieter Rickenmann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 11–34, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-11-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-11-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Field measurements of the bedload flux with a high temporal resolution in a steep mountain stream were used to analyse the transport fluctuations as a function of the flow conditions. The disequilibrium ratio, a proxy for the solid particle concentration in the flow, was found to influence the sediment transport behaviour, and above-average disequilibrium conditions – associated with a larger sediment availability on the streambed – substantially affect subsequent transport conditions.
Byungho Kang, Rusty A. Feagin, Thomas Huff, and Orencio Durán Vinent
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal flooding can cause significant damage to coastal ecosystems, infrastructure, and communities and is expected to increase in frequency with the acceleration of sea level rise. In order to respond to it, it is crucial to measure and model their frequency and intensity. Here, we show deep-learning techniques can be successfully used to automatically detect flooding events from complex coastal imagery, opening the way to real-time monitoring and data acquisition for model development.
Cited articles
Agliardi, F., Scuderi, M. M., Fusi, N., and Collettini, C.: Slow-to-fast transition of giant creeping rockslides modulated by undrained loading in basal shear zones, Nat. Commun., 11, 1352, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15093-3, 2020. a
Allen, R.: Automatic phase pickers: Their present use and future prospects, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 72, 225–242, 1882. a
Amitrano, D. and Helmstetter, A.: Brittle creep, damage, and time to failure in rocks, J. Geophys. Res., 111, B11201, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JB004252, 2006. a
Arias, A.: A Measure of Earthquake Intensity, in: Seismic Design for Nuclear Power Plants, edited by Hansen, R. J., Massachusetts Inst. of Tech. Press, Cambridge, Mass., 438–483, ISBN 9780262080415, 1970. a
Baillard, C., Crawford, W. C., Ballu, V., Hibert, C., and Mangeney, A.: An Automatic Kurtosis-Based P- and S-Phase Picker Designed for Local Seismic Networks, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 104, 394–409, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120120347, 2014. a
Ballantyne, C. K., Sandeman, G. F., Stone, J. O., and Wilson, P.: Rock-slope failure following Late Pleistocene deglaciation on tectonically stable mountainous terrain, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 86, 144–157, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.12.021, 2014. a
Barbosa, N., Leinauer, J., Jubanski, J., Dietze, M., Münzer, U., Siegert, F., and Krautblatter, M.: Massive sediment pulses triggered by a multi-stage 130 000 m3 alpine cliff fall (Hochvogel, DE–AT), Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 249–269, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-249-2024, 2024. a
BGR: Deutscher Erdbebenkatalog: Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe, BGR [data set], https://services.bgr.de/geophysik/gerseis (last access: 1 December 2023), 2023. a
Blanchet, J., Blanc, A., and Creutin, J.-D.: Explaining recent trends in extreme precipitation in the Southwestern Alps by changes in atmospheric influences, Weather Clim. Extrem., 33, 100356, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100356, 2021. a, b
Blikra, L. H. and Christiansen, H. H.: A field-based model of permafrost-controlled rockslide deformation in northern Norway, Geomorphology, 208, 34–49, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2013.11.014, 2014. a, b
Borri-Brunetto, M., Carpinteri, A., and Chiaia, B.: The Effect of Scale and Criticality in Rock Slope Stability, Rock Mech. Rock Eng., 37, 117–126, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00603-003-0004-1, 2004. a
Breiman, L.: Random Forests, Mach. Learn., 45, 5–32, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010933404324, 2001. a
Burjánek, J., Gassner-Stamm, G., Poggi, V., Moore, J. R., and Fäh, D.: Ambient vibration analysis of an unstable mountain slope, Geophys. J. Int., 180, 820–828, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2009.04451.x, 2010. a, b, c
Burjánek, J., Moore, J. R., Yugsi Molina, F. X., and Fäh, D.: Instrumental evidence of normal mode rock slope vibration, Geophys. J. Int., 188, 559–569, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05272.x, 2012. a, b, c, d
Chae, B.-G., Park, H.-J., Catani, F., Simoni, A., and Berti, M.: Landslide prediction, monitoring and early warning: a concise review of state-of-the-art, Geosci. J., 21, 1033–1070, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12303-017-0034-4, 2017. a
Crosta, G. B. and Agliardi, F.: Failure forecast for large rock slides by surface displacement measurements, Can. Geotech. J., 40, 176–191, https://doi.org/10.1139/T02-085, 2003. a
Crosta, G. B., Di Prisco, C., Frattini, P., Frigerio, G., Castellanza, R., and Agliardi, F.: Chasing a complete understanding of the triggering mechanisms of a large rapidly evolving rockslide, Landslides, 11, 747–764, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-013-0433-1, 2014. a
Dietrich, A. and Krautblatter, M.: Evidence for enhanced debris-flow activity in the Northern Calcareous Alps since the 1980s (Plansee, Austria), Geomorphology, 287, 144–158, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.01.013, 2017. a
Dietze, M.: The R package “eseis” – a software toolbox for environmental seismology, Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 669–686, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-669-2018, 2018a. a
Dietze, M.: `eseis' – a comprehensive R software toolbox for environmental seismology, GFZ Data Services [code], https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.5.1.2018.001, 2018b. a
Dietze, M., Burtin, A., Simard, S., and Hovius, N.: The mediating role of trees – transfer and feedback mechanisms of wind-driven seismic activity, in: EGU General Assembly Conference, Geophys. Res. Abstr., 17, EGU2015-5118, 2015. a
Dietze, M., Mohadjer, S., Turowski, J. M., Ehlers, T. A., and Hovius, N.: Seismic monitoring of small alpine rockfalls – validity, precision and limitations, Earth Surf. Dynam., 5, 653–668, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-653-2017, 2017a. a
Dietze, M., Turowski, J. M., Cook, K. L., and Hovius, N.: Spatiotemporal patterns, triggers and anatomies of seismically detected rockfalls, Earth Surf. Dynam., 5, 757–779, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-757-2017, 2017b. a, b, c
Eberhardt, E., Stead, D., and Coggan, J. S.: Numerical analysis of initiation and progressive failure in natural rock slopes – the 1991 Randa rockslide, Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci., 41, 69–87, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1365-1609(03)00076-5, 2004. a
Erismann, T. H. and Abele, G.: Dynamics of rockslides and rockfalls, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, ISBN 978-3-662-04639-5, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-04639-5, 2001. a, b
Evans, S. G., Mugnozza, G. S., Strom, A., Hermanns, R. L., Ischuk, A., and Vinnichenko, S.: Landslides from massive rock slope failure and associated phenomena, in: Landslides from Massive Rock Slope Failure, vol. 49 of NATO Science Series, edited by: Evans, S. G., Mugnozza, G. S., Strom, A., and Hermanns, R. L., Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, 3–52, ISBN 978-1-4020-4035-1, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-4037-5_1, 2006. a, b
Frei, C., Schöll, R., Fukutome, S., Schmidli, J., and Vidale, P. L.: Future change of precipitation extremes in Europe: Intercomparison of scenarios from regional climate models, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D06105, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD005965, 2006. a
Frei, P., Kotlarski, S., Liniger, M. A., and Schär, C.: Future snowfall in the Alps: projections based on the EURO-CORDEX regional climate models, The Cryosphere, 12, 1–24, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1-2018, 2018. a
Gariano, S. L. and Guzzetti, F.: Landslides in a changing climate, Earth-Sci. Rev., 162, 227–252, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.08.011, 2016. a, b
Gischig, V., Preisig, G., and Eberhardt, E.: Numerical Investigation of Seismically Induced Rock Mass Fatigue as a Mechanism Contributing to the Progressive Failure of Deep-Seated Landslides, Rock Mech. Rock Eng., 49, 2457–2478, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00603-015-0821-z, 2016. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i
Guzzetti, F.: On the Prediction of Landslides and Their Consequences, in: Understanding and Reducing Landslide Disaster Risk, ICL Contribution to Landslide Disaster Risk Reduction, edited by: Sassa, K., Mikoš, M., Sassa, S., Bobrowsky, P. T., Takara, K., and Dang, K., Springer International Publishing, Cham, 3–32, ISBN 978-3-030-60195-9, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-60196-6_1, 2021. a
Harp, E. L. and Jibson, R. W.: Anomalous Concentrations of Seismically Triggered Rock Falls in Pacoima Canyon: Are They Caused by Highly Susceptible Slopes or Local Amplification of Seismic Shaking?, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 92, 3180–3189, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120010171, 2002. a
Heckmann, T., Bimböse, M., Krautblatter, M., Haas, F., Becht, M., and Morche, D.: From geotechnical analysis to quantification and modelling using LiDAR data: a study on rockfall in the Reintal catchment, Bavarian Alps, Germany, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 37, 119–133, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.2250, 2012. a
Helmstetter, A. and Garambois, S.: Seismic monitoring of Séchilienne rockslide (French Alps): Analysis of seismic signals and their correlation with rainfalls, J. Geophys. Res., 115, F03016, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JF001532, 2010. a, b, c, d
Hibert, C., Mangeney, A., Grandjean, G., and Shapiro, N. M.: Slope instabilities in Dolomieu crater, Réunion Island: From seismic signals to rockfall characteristics, J. Geophys. Res., 116, F04032, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JF002038, 2011. a
Hibert, C., Provost, F., Malet, J.-P., Maggi, A., Stumpf, A., and Ferrazzini, V.: Automatic identification of rockfalls and volcano-tectonic earthquakes at the Piton de la Fournaise volcano using a Random Forest algorithm, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 340, 130–142, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2017.04.015, 2017. a, b, c, d
Hilger, P., Hermanns, R. L., Czekirda, J., Myhra, K. S., Gosse, J. C., and Etzelmüller, B.: Permafrost as a first order control on long-term rock-slope deformation in (Sub-)Arctic Norway, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 251, 106718, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106718, 2021. a
Huss, M., Bookhagen, B., Huggel, C., Jacobsen, D., Bradley, R. S., Clague, J. J., Vuille, M., Buytaert, W., Cayan, D. R., Greenwood, G., Mark, B. G., Milner, A. M., Weingartner, R., and Winder, M.: Toward mountains without permanent snow and ice, Earth's Future, 5, 418–435, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000514, 2017. a, b, c
Hutter, P.: Damals im Oberallgäu: Geschichte(n) aus der südlichsten Region Deutschlands, in: 1st. Edn., Ed. Limosa, Clenze, ISBN 978-3-86037-401-6, 2010. a
IPCC (Ed.): Climate change 2013: The physical science basis, in: Working Group I contribution to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, ISBN 978-1-107-66182-0, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324, 2013. a
IPCC (Ed.): Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects, in: Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, ISBN 978-1-107-68386-0, 2014. a
IPCC (Ed.): Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystem, edited by: Shukla, P. R., Skea, J., Calvo Buendia, E., Masson-Delmotte, V., Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Zhai, P., Slade, R., Connors, S., van Diemen, R., Ferrat, M., Haughey, E., Luz, S., Neogi, S., Pathak, M., Petzold, J., Portugal Pereira, J., Vyas, P., Huntley, E., Kissick, K., Belkacemi, M., and Malley, J., Cambridge University Press, in press, 2019. a, b
Jibson, R. W.: Regression models for estimating coseismic landslide displacement, Eng. Geol., 91, 209–218, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2007.01.013, 2007. a
Jibson, R. W., Harp, E. L., and Michael, J. A.: A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps, Eng. Geol., 58, 271–289, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0013-7952(00)00039-9, 2000. a, b
Jibson, R. W., Harp, E. L., Schulz, W., and Keefer, D. K.: Large rock avalanches triggered by the M 7.9 Denali Fault, Alaska, earthquake of 3 November 2002, Eng. Geol., 83, 144–160, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2005.06.029, 2006. a
Kawagoe, S., Kazama, S., and Ranjan Sarukkalige, P.: Assessment of snowmelt triggered landslide hazard and risk in Japan, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 58, 120–129, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2009.05.004, 2009. a, b, c
Kemeny, J.: The Time-Dependent Reduction of Sliding Cohesion due to Rock Bridges Along Discontinuities: A Fracture Mechanics Approach, Rock Mech. Rock Eng., 36, 27–38, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00603-002-0032-2, 2003. a
Khan, S., van der Meijde, M., van der Werff, H., and Shafique, M.: The impact of topography on seismic amplification during the 2005 Kashmir earthquake, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 399–411, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-399-2020, 2020. a, b
Kiefer, C., Oswald, P., Moernaut, J., Fabbri, S. C., Mayr, C., Strasser, M., and Krautblatter, M.: A 4000-year debris flow record based on amphibious investigations of fan delta activity in Plansee (Austria, Eastern Alps), Earth Surf. Dynam., 9, 1481–1503, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1481-2021, 2021. a
Knapp, S., Gilli, A., Anselmetti, F. S., Krautblatter, M., and Hajdas, I.: Multistage Rock–Slope Failures Revealed in Lake Sediments in a Seismically Active Alpine Region (Lake Oeschinen, Switzerland), J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 123, 658–677, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JF004455, 2018. a, b
Krautblatter, M. and Moser, M.: A nonlinear model coupling rockfall and rainfall intensity based on a four year measurement in a high Alpine rock wall (Reintal, German Alps), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 1425–1432, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-1425-2009, 2009. a
Krautblatter, M., Funk, D., and Günzel, F. K.: Why permafrost rocks become unstable: a rock–ice–mechanical model in time and space, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 38, 876–887, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.3374, 2013. a
Kristensen, L., Czekirda, J., Penna, I., Etzelmüller, B., Nicolet, P., Pullarello, J. S., Blikra, L. H., Skrede, I., Oldani, S., and Abellan, A.: Movements, failure and climatic control of the Veslemannen rockslide, Western Norway, Landslides, 18, 1963–1980, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-020-01609-x, 2021. a, b, c
Krøgli, I. K., Devoli, G., Colleuille, H., Boje, S., Sund, M., and Engen, I. K.: The Norwegian forecasting and warning service for rainfall- and snowmelt-induced landslides, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1427–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1427-2018, 2018. a, b
Lacasse, S. and Nadim, F.: Landslide Risk Assessment and Mitigation Strategy, in: Landslides – Disaster Risk Reduction, edited by: Sassa, K. and Canuti, P., Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 31–61, ISBN 978-3-540-69966-8, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-69970-5_3, 2009. a
Lagarde, S., Dietze, M., Hammer, C., Zeckra, M., Voigtländer, A., Illien, L., Schöpa, A., Hirschberg, J., Burtin, A., Hovius, N., and Turowski, J. M.: Rock slope failure preparation paced by total crack boundary length, Commun. Earth Environ., 4, 201, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00851-0, 2023. a, b, c, d, e
LaHusen, S. R., Duvall, A. R., Booth, A. M., Grant, A., Mishkin, B. A., Montgomery, D. R., Struble, W., Roering, J. J., and Wartman, J.: Rainfall triggers more deep-seated landslides than Cascadia earthquakes in the Oregon Coast Range, USA, Sci. Adv., 6, eaba6790, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aba6790, 2020. a, b
Langet, N. and Silverberg, F. M. J.: Automated classification of seismic signals recorded on the Åknes rock slope, Western Norway, using a convolutional neural network, Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 89–115, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-89-2023, 2023. a, b
Lee, S.-J., Chan, Y.-C., Komatitsch, D., Huang, B.-S., and Tromp, J.: Effects of Realistic Surface Topography on Seismic Ground Motion in the Yangminshan Region of Taiwan Based Upon the Spectral-Element Method and LiDAR DTM, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 99, 681–693, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120080264, 2009a. a, b
Lee, S.-J., Komatitsch, D., Huang, B.-S., and Tromp, J.: Effects of Topography on Seismic-Wave Propagation: An Example from Northern Taiwan, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 99, 314–325, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120080020, 2009b. a
Lehning, M., Bartelt, P., Brown, B., Russi, T., Stöckli, U., and Zimmerli, M.: Snowpack model calculations for avalanche warning based upon a new network of weather and snow stations, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 30, 145–157, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-232X(99)00022-1, 1999. a
Leinauer, J.: Collection of R-codes and data for analysis of drivers at the Hochvogel rock slope instability, Zenodo [code and data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10567098, 2024. a, b, c
Leinauer, J., Jacobs, B., and Krautblatter, M.: Anticipating an imminent large rock slope failure at the Hochvogel (Allgäu Alps), Geomech. Tunnel., 13, 597–603, https://doi.org/10.1002/geot.202000027, 2020. a, b, c
Leinauer, J., Jacobs, B., and Krautblatter, M.: High alpine geotechnical real time monitoring and early warning at a large imminent rock slope failure (Hochvogel, GER/AUT), IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci., 833, 012146, https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/833/1/012146, 2021. a
Leinauer, J., Weber, S., Cicoira, A., Beutel, J., and Krautblatter, M.: An approach for prospective forecasting of rock slope failure time, Commun. Earth Environ., 4, 253, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00909-z, 2023. a
Le Roux, E., Evin, G., Samacoïts, R., Eckert, N., Blanchet, J., and Morin, S.: Projection of snowfall extremes in the French Alps as a function of elevation and global warming level, The Cryosphere, 17, 4691–4704, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4691-2023, 2023. a
Loew, S., Gschwind, S., Gischig, V., Keller-Signer, A., and Valenti, G.: Monitoring and early warning of the 2012 Preonzo catastrophic rockslope failure, Landslides, 14, 141–154, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-016-0701-y, 2017. a
Lorenzi, V., Banzato, F., Barberio, M. D., Goeppert, N., Goldscheider, N., Gori, F., Lacchini, A., Manetta, M., Medici, G., Rusi, S., and Petitta, M.: Tracking flowpaths in a complex karst system through tracer test and hydrogeochemical monitoring: Implications for groundwater protection (Gran Sasso, Italy), Heliyon, 10, e24663, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e24663, 2024. a
Lott, F. F., Ritter, J. R. R., Al-Qaryouti, M., and Corsmeier, U.: On the Analysis of Wind-Induced Noise in Seismological Recordings, Pure Appl. Geophys., 174, 1453–1470, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-017-1477-2, 2017. a
Mamot, P., Weber, S., Eppinger, S., and Krautblatter, M.: A temperature-dependent mechanical model to assess the stability of degrading permafrost rock slopes, Earth Surf. Dynam., 9, 1125–1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1125-2021, 2021. a
Marc, O., Hovius, N., Meunier, P., Gorum, T., and Uchida, T.: A seismologically consistent expression for the total area and volume of earthquake-triggered landsliding, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 121, 640–663, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JF003732, 2016. a
Massey, C. I., Olsen, M. J., Wartman, J., Senogles, A., Lukovic, B., Leshchinsky, B. A., Archibald, G., Litchfield, N., van Dissen, R., de Vilder, S., and Holden, C.: Rockfall Activity Rates Before, During and After the 2010/2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 127, e2021JF006400, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JF006400, 2022. a, b, c, d
Masson, D. and Frei, C.: Long-term variations and trends of mesoscale precipitation in the Alps: recalculation and update for 1901–2008, Int. J. Climat., 36, 492–500, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4343, 2016. a
Ménégoz, M., Valla, E., Jourdain, N. C., Blanchet, J., Beaumet, J., Wilhelm, B., Gallée, H., Fettweis, X., Morin, S., and Anquetin, S.: Contrasting seasonal changes in total and intense precipitation in the European Alps from 1903 to 2010, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5355–5377, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5355-2020, 2020. a, b
Meunier, P., Hovius, N., and Haines, A. J.: Regional patterns of earthquake-triggered landslides and their relation to ground motion, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L20408, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031337, 2007. a, b, c, d
Meunier, P., Hovius, N., and Haines, J. A.: Topographic site effects and the location of earthquake induced landslides, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 275, 221–232, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2008.07.020, 2008. a, b
Meyenfeld, H.: Modellierungen seismisch ausgelöster gravitativer Massenbewegungen für die Schwäbische Alb und den Raum Bonn und Erstellen von Gefahrenhinweiskarten: Dissertation, ULB Bonn, Bonn, https://bonndoc.ulb.uni-bonn.de/xmlui/handle/20.500.11811/4047 (last access: 1 December 2023), 2009. a, b
Miles, S. B. and Keefer, D. K.: Seismic Landslide Hazard for the City of Berkeley, California, US Geological Survey, https://doi.org/10.3133/mf2378, 2001. a, b
Mulas, M., Marnas, M., Ciccarese, G., and Corsini, A.: Sinusoidal wave fit indexing of irreversible displacements for crackmeters monitoring of rockfall areas: test at Pietra di Bismantova (Northern Apennines, Italy), Landslides, 17, 231–240, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-019-01248-x, 2020. a, b
Oswald, P., Strasser, M., Hammerl, C., and Moernaut, J.: Seismic control of large prehistoric rockslides in the Eastern Alps, Nat. Commun., 12, 1059, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21327-9, 2021. a, b, c, d
Oswald, P., Strasser, M., Skapski, J., and Moernaut, J.: Magnitude and source area estimations of severe prehistoric earthquakes in the western Austrian Alps, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2057–2079, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2057-2022, 2022. a, b
Pecoraro, G., Calvello, M., and Piciullo, L.: Monitoring strategies for local landslide early warning systems, Landslides, 16, 213–231, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-018-1068-z, 2019. a
Pendergrass, A. G., Coleman, D. B., Deser, C., Lehner, F., Rosenbloom, N., and Simpson, I. R.: Nonlinear Response of Extreme Precipitation to Warming in CESM1, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 10551–10560, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084826, 2019. a, b
Petley, D. N.: The evolution of slope failures: mechanisms of rupture propagation, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 147–152, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-4-147-2004, 2004. a
Picarelli, L., Lacasse, S., and Ho, K. K. S.: The Impact of Climate Change on Landslide Hazard and Risk, in: Understanding and Reducing Landslide Disaster Risk, ICL Contribution to Landslide Disaster Risk Reduction, edited by: Sassa, K., Mikoš, M., Sassa, S., Bobrowsky, P. T., Takara, K., and Dang, K., Springer International Publishing, Cham, 131–141, ISBN 978-3-030-60195-9, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-60196-6_6, 2021. a, b, c
Prein, A. F., Liu, C., Ikeda, K., Trier, S. B., Rasmussen, R. M., Holland, G. J., and Clark, M. P.: Increased rainfall volume from future convective storms in the US, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 880–884, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0007-7, 2017. a
Preisig, G., Eberhardt, E., Smithyman, M., Preh, A., and Bonzanigo, L.: Hydromechanical Rock Mass Fatigue in Deep-Seated Landslides Accompanying Seasonal Variations in Pore Pressures, Rock Mech. Rock Eng., 49, 2333–2351, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00603-016-0912-5, 2016. a
Provost, F., Hibert, C., and Malet, J.-P.: Automatic classification of endogenous landslide seismicity using the Random Forest supervised classifier, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 113–120, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070709, 2017. a, b, c
R Core Team: R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing, https://www.R-project.org/ (last access: 1 December 2023), 2023. a
Sättele, M., Krautblatter, M., Bründl, M., and Straub, D.: Forecasting rock slope failure: how reliable and effective are warning systems?, Landslides, 13, 737–750, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-015-0605-2, 2016. a
Scandroglio, R., Stoll, V., and Krautblatter, M.: The driving force of all nature. Modelling water pressure and its stability consequences on alpine bedrock slopes, IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci., 833, 012109, https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/833/1/012109, 2021. a, b
SED: Earthquake Catalogue: Swiss Seismological Service, SED [data set], http://www.seismo.ethz.ch/en/research-and-teaching/products-software/earthquake-catalogues/ (last access: 1 December 2023), 2023. a
Senfaute, G., Duperret, A., and Lawrence, J. A.: Micro-seismic precursory cracks prior to rock-fall on coastal chalk cliffs: a case study at Mesnil-Val, Normandie, NW France, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 1625–1641, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-1625-2009, 2009. a, b
Sepúlveda, S. A., Murphy, W., Jibson, R. W., and Petley, D. N.: Seismically induced rock slope failures resulting from topographic amplification of strong ground motions: The case of Pacoima Canyon, California, Eng. Geol., 80, 336–348, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2005.07.004, 2005. a
Uhlmann, B., Goyette, S., and Beniston, M.: Sensitivity analysis of snow patterns in Swiss ski resorts to shifts in temperature, precipitation and humidity under conditions of climate change, Int. J. Climatol., 29, 1048–1055, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1786, 2009. a
USGS: Earthquake Catalogue, US Geological Survey, USGS [data set], https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/ (last access: 1 December 2023), 2023. a
Voigtländer, A., Leith, K., and Krautblatter, M.: Subcritical Crack Growth and Progressive Failure in Carrara Marble Under Wet and Dry Conditions, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 123, 3780–3798, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JB014956, 2018. a
Wenner, M., Hibert, C., van Herwijnen, A., Meier, L., and Walter, F.: Near-real-time automated classification of seismic signals of slope failures with continuous random forests, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 339–361, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-339-2021, 2021. a, b
Wilson, R. C. and Keefer, D. K.: Predicting Areal Limits of Earthquake-Induced Landsliding, in: Evaluating Earthquake Hazards in the Los Angeles Region – An Earth-Science Perspective, USGS – US Geological Survey, 316–345, https://doi.org/10.3133/pp1360, 1985. a, b, c
Wyllie, D. C. and Mah, C. W.: Rock slope engineering: Civil and mining, in: 4th Edn.,Spon Press, New York, NY, ISBN 978-0-415-28001-3, http://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy0650/2003014937-d.html (last access: 1 December 2023), 2004. a
Zhang, X., Wan, H., Zwiers, F. W., Hegerl, G. C., and Min, S.-K.: Attributing intensification of precipitation extremes to human influence, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 5252–5257, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.51010, 2013. a
Short summary
Massive rock slope failures are a significant alpine hazard and change the Earth's surface. Therefore, we must understand what controls the preparation of such events. By correlating 4 years of slope displacements with meteorological and seismic data, we found that water from rain and snowmelt is the most important driver. Our approach is applicable to similar sites and indicates where future climatic changes, e.g. in rain intensity and frequency, may alter the preparation of slope failure.
Massive rock slope failures are a significant alpine hazard and change the Earth's surface....