Articles | Volume 12, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1027-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1027-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
16 Sep 2024
Research article |
| 16 Sep 2024
| 16 Sep 2024
How water, temperature, and seismicity control the preconditioning of massive rock slope failure (Hochvogel)
Johannes Leinauer
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
TUM School of Engineering and Design, Landslide Research Group, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
Michael Dietze
Faculty of Geosciences and Geography, Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
Sibylle Knapp
TUM School of Engineering and Design, Landslide Research Group, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
UNESCO Global Geopark Swabian Alb, Schelklingen, Germany
Riccardo Scandroglio
TUM School of Engineering and Design, Landslide Research Group, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
Maximilian Jokel
TUM School of Engineering and Design, Landslide Research Group, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
Michael Krautblatter
TUM School of Engineering and Design, Landslide Research Group, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
Related authors
Samuel Weber, Jan Beutel, Michael Dietze, Alexander Bast, Robert Kenner, Marcia Phillips, Johannes Leinauer, Simon Mühlbauer, Felix Pfluger, and Michael Krautblatter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1151, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
On 13 June 2023, a freestanding rock pillar on the Matterhorn Hörnligrat ridge collapsed after years of weakening. Our study explores how seasonal temperature changes and water infiltration into frozen rock contributed to its failure. By combining field data, lab tests, and modeling, we reveal how warming permafrost increases rockfall risks. Our findings highlight the need for multi-method monitoring and modeling to understand rock slope failure and its links to climate change.
Natalie Barbosa, Johannes Leinauer, Juilson Jubanski, Michael Dietze, Ulrich Münzer, Florian Siegert, and Michael Krautblatter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 249–269, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-249-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-249-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Massive sediment pulses in catchments are a key alpine multi-risk component. Combining high-resolution aerial imagery and seismic information, we decipher a multi-stage >130.000 m³ rockfall and subsequent sediment pulses over 4 years, reflecting sediment deposition up to 10 m, redistribution in the basin, and finally debouchure to the outlet. This study provides generic information on spatial and temporal patterns of massive sediment pulses in highly charged alpine catchments.
Bernd Etzelmüller, Justyna Czekirda, Florence Magnin, Pierre-Allain Duvillard, Ludovic Ravanel, Emanuelle Malet, Andreas Aspaas, Lene Kristensen, Ingrid Skrede, Gudrun D. Majala, Benjamin Jacobs, Johannes Leinauer, Christian Hauck, Christin Hilbich, Martina Böhme, Reginald Hermanns, Harald Ø. Eriksen, Tom Rune Lauknes, Michael Krautblatter, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 97–129, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-97-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-97-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is a multi-authored study documenting the possible existence of permafrost in permanently monitored rockslides in Norway for the first time by combining a multitude of field data, including geophysical surveys in rock walls. The paper discusses the possible role of thermal regime and rockslide movement, and it evaluates the possible impact of atmospheric warming on rockslide dynamics in Norwegian mountains.
Benjamin Jacobs, Mohamed Ismael, Mostafa Ezzy, Markus Keuschnig, Alexander Mendler, Johanna Kieser, Michael Krautblatter, Christian U. Grosse, and Hany Helal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2007, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2007, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth Surface Dynamics (ESurf).
Short summary
Short summary
The Mortuary Temple of Hatshepsut is one of the key heritage sites in Egypt but potentially threatened by rockfalls from a 100 m high limestone cliff. We transferred established monitoring techniques from mountainous (alpine) environments to this major cultural heritage site and test their performance in a historically sensitive desert environment. Our study shows the first event and impact analysis of rockfalls at the Temple of Hatshepsut, providing vital data towards future risk assessment.
Riccardo Scandroglio, Samuel Weber, Till Rehm, and Michael Krautblatter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 295–314, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-295-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-295-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the critical role of water in alpine regions, its presence in bedrock is frequently neglected. This research examines the dynamics of water in fractures using 1 decade of measurements from a tunnel 50 m underground. We provide new insights into alpine groundwater dynamics, revealing that up to 800 L d-1 can flow in one fracture during extreme events. These quantities can saturate the fractures, enhance hydraulic conductivity, and generate pressures that destabilize slopes.
Samuel Weber, Jan Beutel, Michael Dietze, Alexander Bast, Robert Kenner, Marcia Phillips, Johannes Leinauer, Simon Mühlbauer, Felix Pfluger, and Michael Krautblatter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1151, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
On 13 June 2023, a freestanding rock pillar on the Matterhorn Hörnligrat ridge collapsed after years of weakening. Our study explores how seasonal temperature changes and water infiltration into frozen rock contributed to its failure. By combining field data, lab tests, and modeling, we reveal how warming permafrost increases rockfall risks. Our findings highlight the need for multi-method monitoring and modeling to understand rock slope failure and its links to climate change.
Maike Offer, Samuel Weber, Michael Krautblatter, Ingo Hartmeyer, and Markus Keuschnig
The Cryosphere, 19, 485–506, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-485-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-485-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present a unique long-term dataset of measurements of borehole temperature, repeated electrical resistivity tomography, and piezometric pressure to investigate the complex seasonal water flow in permafrost rockwalls. Our joint analysis shows that permafrost rocks are subjected to enhanced pressurised water flow during the thaw period, resulting in push-like warming events and long-lasting rock temperature regime changes.
Felix Pfluger, Samuel Weber, Joseph Steinhauser, Christian Zangerl, Christine Fey, Johannes Fürst, and Michael Krautblatter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 41–70, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-41-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-41-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores permafrost–glacier interactions with a focus on their implications for preparing or triggering high-volume rock slope failures. Using the Bliggspitze rock slide as a case study, we demonstrate a new type of rock slope failure mechanism triggered by the uplift of the cold–warm dividing line in polythermal alpine glaciers, a widespread and currently under-explored phenomenon in alpine environments worldwide.
Christian H. Mohr, Michael Dietze, Violeta Tolorza, Erwin Gonzalez, Benjamin Sotomayor, Andres Iroume, Sten Gilfert, and Frieder Tautz
Biogeosciences, 21, 1583–1599, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1583-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal temperate rainforests, among Earth’s carbon richest biomes, are systematically underrepresented in the global network of critical zone observatories (CZOs). Introducing here a first CZO in the heart of the Patagonian rainforest, Chile, we investigate carbon sink functioning, biota-driven landscape evolution, fluxes of matter and energy, and disturbance regimes. We invite the community to join us in cross-disciplinary collaboration to advance science in this particular environment.
Natalie Barbosa, Johannes Leinauer, Juilson Jubanski, Michael Dietze, Ulrich Münzer, Florian Siegert, and Michael Krautblatter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 249–269, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-249-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-249-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Massive sediment pulses in catchments are a key alpine multi-risk component. Combining high-resolution aerial imagery and seismic information, we decipher a multi-stage >130.000 m³ rockfall and subsequent sediment pulses over 4 years, reflecting sediment deposition up to 10 m, redistribution in the basin, and finally debouchure to the outlet. This study provides generic information on spatial and temporal patterns of massive sediment pulses in highly charged alpine catchments.
Fabian Walter, Elias Hodel, Erik S. Mannerfelt, Kristen Cook, Michael Dietze, Livia Estermann, Michaela Wenner, Daniel Farinotti, Martin Fengler, Lukas Hammerschmidt, Flavia Hänsli, Jacob Hirschberg, Brian McArdell, and Peter Molnar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4011–4018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4011-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4011-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows are dangerous sediment–water mixtures in steep terrain. Their formation takes place in poorly accessible terrain where instrumentation cannot be installed. Here we propose to monitor such source terrain with an autonomous drone for mapping sediments which were left behind by debris flows or may contribute to future events. Short flight intervals elucidate changes of such sediments, providing important information for landscape evolution and the likelihood of future debris flows.
Sibylle Knapp, Michael Schwenk, and Michael Krautblatter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 1185–1193, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-1185-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-1185-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Flims area in the Swiss Alps has fascinated the researchers with its complex geological history ever since. Especially the order of events related to the Tamins and Flims rockslides has long been debated. This paper presents novel results based on up to 160 m deep geophysical profiles, which show onlaps of the Bonaduz Formation onto the Tamins deposits (Ils Aults) and thus indicate that the Tamins rockslide occurred first. The consecutive evolution of this landscape is shown in four phases.
Michael Dietze, Sebastian Kreutzer, Margret C. Fuchs, and Sascha Meszner
Geochronology, 4, 323–338, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-323-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-323-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The R package sandbox is a collection of functions that allow the creation, sampling and analysis of fully virtual sediment sections, like having a virtual twin of real-world deposits. This article introduces the concept, features, and workflows required to use sandbox. It shows how a real-world sediment section can be mapped into the model and subsequently addresses a series of theoretical and practical questions, exploiting the flexibility of the model framework.
Michael Dietze, Rainer Bell, Ugur Ozturk, Kristen L. Cook, Christoff Andermann, Alexander R. Beer, Bodo Damm, Ana Lucia, Felix S. Fauer, Katrin M. Nissen, Tobias Sieg, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1845–1856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The flood that hit Europe in July 2021, specifically the Eifel, Germany, was more than a lot of fast-flowing water. The heavy rain that fell during the 3 d before also caused the slope to fail, recruited tree trunks that clogged bridges, and routed debris across the landscape. Especially in the upper parts of the catchments the flood was able to gain momentum. Here, we discuss how different landscape elements interacted and highlight the challenges of holistic future flood anticipation.
Shiva P. Pudasaini and Michael Krautblatter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 165–189, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-165-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-165-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first physics-based general landslide velocity model incorporating internal deformation and external forces. Voellmy–inviscid Burgers' equations are specifications of the novel advective–dissipative system. Unified analytical solutions constitute a new foundation of landslide velocity, providing key information to instantly estimate impact forces and describe breaking waves and folding, revealing that landslide dynamics are architectured by advection and reigned by forcing.
Bernd Etzelmüller, Justyna Czekirda, Florence Magnin, Pierre-Allain Duvillard, Ludovic Ravanel, Emanuelle Malet, Andreas Aspaas, Lene Kristensen, Ingrid Skrede, Gudrun D. Majala, Benjamin Jacobs, Johannes Leinauer, Christian Hauck, Christin Hilbich, Martina Böhme, Reginald Hermanns, Harald Ø. Eriksen, Tom Rune Lauknes, Michael Krautblatter, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 97–129, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-97-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-97-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is a multi-authored study documenting the possible existence of permafrost in permanently monitored rockslides in Norway for the first time by combining a multitude of field data, including geophysical surveys in rock walls. The paper discusses the possible role of thermal regime and rockslide movement, and it evaluates the possible impact of atmospheric warming on rockslide dynamics in Norwegian mountains.
Carolin Kiefer, Patrick Oswald, Jasper Moernaut, Stefano Claudio Fabbri, Christoph Mayr, Michael Strasser, and Michael Krautblatter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 9, 1481–1503, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1481-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1481-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides amphibious investigations of debris flow fans (DFFs). We characterize active DFFs, combining laser scan and sonar surveys at Plansee. We discover a 4000-year debris flow record in sediment cores, providing evidence for a 7-fold debris flow frequency increase in the 20th and 21st centuries, coincident with 2-fold enhanced rainstorm activity in the northern European Alps. Our results indicate climate change as being the main factor controlling debris flow activity.
Philipp Mamot, Samuel Weber, Saskia Eppinger, and Michael Krautblatter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 9, 1125–1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1125-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1125-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The mechanical response of permafrost degradation on high-mountain rock slope stability has not been calculated in a numerical model yet. We present the first approach for a model with thermal and mechanical input data derived from laboratory and field work, and existing concepts. This is applied to a test site at the Zugspitze, Germany. A numerical sensitivity analysis provides the first critical stability thresholds related to the rock temperature, slope angle and fracture network orientation.
Doris Hermle, Markus Keuschnig, Ingo Hartmeyer, Robert Delleske, and Michael Krautblatter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2753–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2753-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2753-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Multispectral remote sensing imagery enables landslide detection and monitoring, but its applicability to time-critical early warning is rarely studied. We present a concept to operationalise its use for landslide early warning, aiming to extend lead time. We tested PlanetScope and unmanned aerial system images on a complex mass movement and compared processing times to historic benchmarks. Acquired data are within the forecasting window, indicating the feasibility for landslide early warning.
Michael Krautblatter, Lutz Schirrmeister, and Josefine Lenz
Polarforschung, 89, 69–71, https://doi.org/10.5194/polf-89-69-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/polf-89-69-2021, 2021
Ingo Hartmeyer, Robert Delleske, Markus Keuschnig, Michael Krautblatter, Andreas Lang, Lothar Schrott, and Jan-Christoph Otto
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 729–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-729-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-729-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Climate warming is causing significant ice surface lowering even in the uppermost parts of alpine glaciers. Using terrestrial lidar, we quantify rockfall in freshly exposed cirque walls. During 6-year monitoring (2011–2017), an extensive dataset was established and over 600 rockfall events identified. Drastically increased rockfall activity following ice retreat can clearly be observed as 60 % of the rockfall volume detached from less than 10 m above the glacier surface.
Ingo Hartmeyer, Markus Keuschnig, Robert Delleske, Michael Krautblatter, Andreas Lang, Lothar Schrott, Günther Prasicek, and Jan-Christoph Otto
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 753–768, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-753-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-753-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Rockfall size and frequency in two deglaciating cirques in the Central Alps, Austria, is analysed based on 6-year rockwall monitoring with terrestrial lidar (2011–2017). The erosion rates derived from this dataset are very high due to a frequent occurrence of large rockfalls in freshly deglaciated areas. The results obtained are important for rockfall hazard assessments, as, in rockwalls affected by glacier retreat, historical rockfall patterns are not good predictors of future events.
Philipp Mamot, Samuel Weber, Maximilian Lanz, and Michael Krautblatter
The Cryosphere, 14, 1849–1855, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1849-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1849-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A failure criterion for ice-filled rock joints is a prerequisite to accurately assess the stability of permafrost rock slopes. In 2018 a failure criterion was proposed based on limestone. Now, we tested the transferability to other rocks using mica schist and gneiss which provide the maximum expected deviation of lithological effects on the shear strength. We show that even for controversial rocks the failure criterion stays unaltered, suggesting that it is applicable to mostly all rock types.
Kristen L. Cook and Michael Dietze
Earth Surf. Dynam., 7, 1009–1017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-1009-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-1009-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
UAVs have become popular tools for detecting topographic changes. Traditionally, detecting small amounts of change between two UAV surveys requires each survey to be highly accurate. We take an alternative approach and present a simple processing workflow that produces survey pairs or sets that are highly consistent with each other, even when the overall accuracy is relatively low. This greatly increases our ability to detect changes in settings where ground control is not possible.
Elisabeth Dietze and Michael Dietze
E&G Quaternary Sci. J., 68, 29–46, https://doi.org/10.5194/egqsj-68-29-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/egqsj-68-29-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Sedimentary deposits provide insights into past Earth surface dynamics via the size distribution of mineral grains documenting the erosion, transport and deposition history. This study introduces structured procedures to decipher the distinct grain-size distributions of sediment samples that were mixed during/after deposition, using the free statistical tool EMMAgeo. Compared with other algorithms, EMMAgeo is unique as it provides uncertainty estimates and allows expert knowledge to be included.
Anselm Köhler, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Riccardo Scandroglio, Mathias Bavay, Jim McElwaine, and Betty Sovilla
The Cryosphere, 12, 3759–3774, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3759-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3759-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Snow avalanches show complicated flow behaviour, characterized by several flow regimes which coexist in one avalanche. In this work, we analyse flow regime transitions where a powder snow avalanche transforms into a plug flow avalanche by incorporating warm snow due to entrainment. Prediction of such a transition is very important for hazard mitigation, as the efficiency of protection dams are strongly dependent on the flow regime, and our results should be incorporated into avalanche models.
Philipp Mamot, Samuel Weber, Tanja Schröder, and Michael Krautblatter
The Cryosphere, 12, 3333–3353, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3333-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3333-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Most of the observed failures in permafrost-affected alpine rock walls are likely triggered by the mechanical destabilisation of warming bedrock permafrost including ice-filled joints. We present a systematic study of the brittle shear failure of ice and rock–ice contacts along rock joints in a simulated depth ≤ 30 m and at temperatures from −10 to −0.5 °C. Warming and sudden reduction in rock overburden due to the detachment of an upper rock mass lead to a significant drop in shear resistance.
Michael Dietze
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 669–686, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-669-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-669-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Environmental seismology is the study of the seismic signals emitted by Earth surface processes. This emerging research field is at the intersection of many Earth science disciplines. The overarching scope requires free integrative software that is accepted across scientific disciplines, such as R. The article introduces the R package "eseis" and illustrates its conceptual structure, available functions, and worked examples.
Michael Dietze, Jens M. Turowski, Kristen L. Cook, and Niels Hovius
Earth Surf. Dynam., 5, 757–779, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-757-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-757-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Rockfall is an essential geomorphic process and a hazard in steep landscapes which is hard to constrain with traditional approaches. Seismic methods allow for the detection, location, characterisation and linking of events to triggers by lag times. This new technique reveals 49 rockfalls in 6 months with seasonally varying locations. Freeze–thaw action accounts for only 5 events, whereas 19 rockfalls were caused by rain with a 1 h peak lag time, and 17 events were due to diurnal thermal forcing.
Michael Dietze, Solmaz Mohadjer, Jens M. Turowski, Todd A. Ehlers, and Niels Hovius
Earth Surf. Dynam., 5, 653–668, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-653-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-653-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We use a seismometer network to detect and locate rockfalls, a key process shaping steep mountain landscapes. When tested against laser scan surveys, all seismically detected events could be located with an average deviation of 81 m. Seismic monitoring provides insight to the dynamics of individual rockfalls, which can be as small as 0.0053 m3. Thus, seismic methods provide unprecedented temporal, spatial and kinematic details about this important process.
Wen Nie, Michael Krautblatter, Kerry Leith, Kurosch Thuro, and Judith Festl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1595–1610, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1595-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1595-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Deep-seated landslides are an important and widespread natural hazard within alpine regions and can have a massive impact on infrastructure. Pore water pressure plays an important role in determining the stability of hydro-triggered deep-seated landslides. Here we demonstrate a modified tank model for deep-seated landslides that includes snow and infiltration effects and can effectively predict changes in pore water pressure in alpine environments.
Samuel Weber, Jan Beutel, Jérome Faillettaz, Andreas Hasler, Michael Krautblatter, and Andreas Vieli
The Cryosphere, 11, 567–583, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-567-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-567-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present a 8-year continuous time series of measured fracture kinematics and thermal conditions on steep permafrost bedrock at Hörnligrat, Matterhorn. Based on this unique dataset and a conceptual model for strong fractured bedrock, we develop a novel quantitative approach that allows to separate reversible from irreversible fracture kinematics and assign the dominant forcing. A new index of irreversibility provides useful indication for the occurrence and timing of irreversible displacements.
Related subject area
Physical: Geomorphology (including all aspects of fluvial, coastal, aeolian, hillslope and glacial geomorphology)
Sub-surface processes and heat fluxes at coarse blocky Murtèl rock glacier (Engadine, eastern Swiss Alps): seasonal ice and convective cooling render rock glaciers climate-robust
Influence of alluvial slope on avulsion in river deltas
Surficial sediment remobilization by shear between sediment and water above tsunamigenic megathrust ruptures: experimental study
Haloturbation in the northern Atacama Desert revealed by a hidden subsurface network of calcium sulfate wedges
An evaluation of flow-routing algorithms for calculating contributing area on regular grids
Geometric constraints on tributary fluvial network junction angles
Effect of grain-sorting waves on alternate bar dynamics: Implications of the breakdown of the hydrograph boundary layer
Automatic detection of floating instream large wood in videos using deep learning
Investigating uncertainty and parameter sensitivity in bedform analysis by using a Monte Carlo approach
Geomorphic imprint of high-mountain floods: insights from the 2022 hydrological extreme across the upper Indus River catchment in the northwestern Himalayas
Short communication: Learning How Landscapes Evolve with Neural Operators
A numerical model for duricrust formation by water table fluctuations
Width evolution of channel belts as a random walk
Evidence of slow millennial cliff retreat rates using cosmogenic nuclides in coastal colluvium
Equilibrium distance from long-range dune interactions
Examination of analytical shear stress predictions for coastal dune evolution
Localised geomorphic response to channel-spanning leaky wooden dams
Post-fire evolution of ravel transport regimes in the Diablo Range, CA
Landscape response to tectonic deformation and cyclic climate change since ca. 800 ka in the southern central Andes
The Aare main overdeepening on the northern margin of the European Alps: basins, riegels, and slot canyons
Surface grain-size mapping of braided channels from SfM photogrammetry
A simple model for faceted topographies at normal faults based on an extended stream-power law
Multiple Equilibrium Configurations in River-Dominated Deltas
Short Communications: Multiscale topographic complexity analysis with pyTopoComplexity
Testing floc settling velocity models in rivers and freshwater wetlands
River suspended-sand flux computation with uncertainty estimation using water samples and high-resolution ADCP measurements
Barchan swarm dynamics from a Two-Flank Agent-Based Model
A landslide runout model for sediment transport, landscape evolution, and hazard assessment applications
Tracking slow-moving landslides with PlanetScope data: new perspectives on the satellite's perspective
Topographic metrics for unveiling fault segmentation and tectono-geomorphic evolution with insights into the impact of inherited topography, Ulsan Fault Zone, South Korea
Biomechanical parameters of marram grass (Calamagrostis arenaria) for advanced modeling of dune vegetation
Acceleration of coastal-retreat rates for high-Arctic rock cliffs on Brøggerhalvøya, Svalbard, over the past decade
The impact of bedrock meander cutoffs on 50 kyr scale incision rates, San Juan River, Utah
Sediment aggradation rates for Himalayan Rivers revealed through SAR remote sensing
Spatiotemporal denudation rates of the Swabian Alb escarpment (Southwest Germany) dominated by base-level lowering and lithology
Use of simple analytical solutions in the calibration of Shallow Water Equations debris flow models
Large structure simulation for landscape evolution models
Investigating the celerity of propagation for small perturbations and dispersive sediment aggradation under a supercritical flow
Terrace formation linked to outburst floods at the Diexi palaeo-landslide dam, upper Minjiang River, eastern Tibetan Plateau
AI-Based Tracking of Fast-Moving Alpine Landforms Using High Frequency Monoscopic Time-Lapse Imagery
Pliocene shorelines and the epeirogenic motion of continental margins: a target dataset for dynamic topography models
Decadal-scale decay of landslide-derived fluvial suspended sediment after Typhoon Morakot
Role of the forcing sources in morphodynamic modelling of an embayed beach
A machine learning approach to the geomorphometric detection of ribbed moraines in Norway
Stream hydrology controls on ice cliff evolution and survival on debris-covered glaciers
Time-varying drainage basin development and erosion on volcanic edifices
Geomorphic risk maps for river migration using probabilistic modeling – a framework
Evolution of submarine canyons and hanging-wall fans: insights from geomorphic experiments and morphodynamic models
Riverine sediment response to deforestation in the Amazon basin
Physical modeling of ice-sheet-induced salt movements using the example of northern Germany
Dominik Amschwand, Jonas Wicky, Martin Scherler, Martin Hoelzle, Bernhard Krummenacher, Anna Haberkorn, Christian Kienholz, and Hansueli Gubler
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 365–401, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-365-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-365-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Rock glaciers are comparatively climate-robust permafrost landforms. We estimated the energy budget of the seasonally thawing active layer (AL) of Murtèl rock glacier (Swiss Alps) based on a novel sub-surface sensor array. In the coarse blocky AL, heat is transferred by thermal radiation and air convection. The ground heat flux is largely spent on melting seasonal ice in the AL. Convective cooling and the seasonal ice turnover make rock glaciers climate-robust and shield the permafrost beneath.
Octria A. Prasojo, Trevor B. Hoey, Amanda Owen, and Richard D. Williams
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 349–363, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-349-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-349-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Decades of delta avulsion (i.e. channel abrupt jump) studies have not resolved what the main controls of delta avulsion are. Using a computer model, integrated with field observation, analytical, and laboratory-made deltas, we found that the sediment load, which itself is controlled by the steepness of the river upstream of a delta, controls the timing of avulsion. We can now better understand the main cause of abrupt channel changes in deltas, a finding that aids flood risk management in river deltas.
Chloé Seibert, Cecilia McHugh, Chris Paola, Leonardo Seeber, and James Tucker
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 341–348, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-341-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-341-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a new mechanism of co-seismic sediment entrainment induced by shear stress at the sediment–water interface during major subduction earthquakes rupturing to the trench. Physical experiments show that flow velocities consistent with long-period earthquake motions can entrain synthetic marine sediment, and high-frequency vertical shaking can enhance this mobilization. They validate the proposed entrainment mechanism, which opens new avenues for paleoseismology in deep-sea environments.
Aline Zinelabedin, Joel Mohren, Maria Wierzbicka-Wieczorek, Tibor Janos Dunai, Stefan Heinze, and Benedikt Ritter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 257–276, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-257-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-257-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In order to interpret the formation processes of subsurface salt wedges and polygonal patterned grounds from the northern Atacama Desert, we present a multi-methodological approach. Due to the high salt content of the wedges, we suggest that their formation is dominated by subsurface salt dynamics requiring moisture. We assume that the climatic conditions during the wedge growth were slightly wetter than today, offering the potential to use the wedges as palaeoclimate archives.
Alexander B. Prescott, Jon D. Pelletier, Satya Chataut, and Sriram Ananthanarayan
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 239–256, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-239-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-239-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Many Earth surface processes are controlled by the spatial pattern of surface water flow. We review commonly used methods for predicting such spatial patterns in digital landform models and document the pros and cons of commonly used methods. We propose a new method that is designed to minimize those limitations and show that it works well in a variety of test cases.
Jon D. Pelletier, Robert G. Hayes, Olivia Hoch, Brendan Fenerty, and Luke A. McGuire
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 219–238, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-219-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-219-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We demonstrate that landscapes with more planar initial conditions tend to have lower mean junction angles. Geomorphic processes on alluvial piedmonts result in especially planar initial conditions, consistent with a correlation between junction angles and the presence/absence of Late Cenozoic alluvial deposits and the constraint imposed by the intersection of planar approximations to the topography upslope from tributary junctions. We caution against using junction angles to infer paleoclimate.
Soichi Tanabe and Toshiki Iwasaki
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-103, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-103, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We try to understand how the sediment supply from the upstream river reach affect the downstream river morphology using a numerical model. If the supplied sediment is composed of variety of size class of particles, a small size bed wave that is composed of mainly fine particles (sorting wave) can propagate to downstream very long distance. However, presence of bars suppresses the effect of sorting wave greatly, and thus the sediment supply has limited role in the downstream river morphology.
Janbert Aarnink, Tom Beucler, Marceline Vuaridel, and Virginia Ruiz-Villanueva
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 167–189, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-167-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-167-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a novel convolutional-neural-network approach for detecting instream large wood in rivers, addressing the need for flexible monitoring methods across diverse data sources. Using a database of 15 228 fully labelled images, the model achieved a weighted mean average precision of 67 %. Fine-tuning parameters and sampling techniques can improve performance by over 10 % in some cases, offering valuable insights into ecosystem management.
Julius Reich and Axel Winterscheid
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 191–217, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-191-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-191-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Analyzing the geometry and the dynamics of riverine bedforms (so-called dune tracking) is important for various fields of application and contributes to sound and efficient river and sediment management. We developed a workflow that enables a robust estimation of bedform characteristics and with which comprehensive sensitivity analyses can be carried out. Using a field dataset, we show that the setting of input parameters in bedform analyses can have a significant impact on the results.
Abhishek Kashyap, Kristen L. Cook, and Mukunda Dev Behera
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 147–166, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-147-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-147-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Short-lived, high-magnitude flood events across high mountain regions leave substantial geomorphic imprints, which are frequently triggered by excess precipitation, glacial lake outbursts, and natural dam breaches. These catastrophic floods highlight the importance of understanding the complex interaction between climatic, hydrological, and geological forces in bedrock catchments. Extreme floods can have long-term geomorphic consequences on river morphology and fluvial processes.
Gareth G. Roberts
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-307, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-307, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The use of new Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to learn how landscapes evolve is demonstrated. A few ‘snapshots' of an eroding landscape at different stages of its history provide enough information for AI to ascertain rules governing its evolution. Once the rules are known, predicting landscape evolution is extremely rapid and efficient, providing new tools to understand landscape change.
Caroline Fenske, Jean Braun, François Guillocheau, and Cécile Robin
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 119–146, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-119-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-119-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We have developed a new numerical model to represent the formation of duricrusts, which are hard mineral layers found in soils and at the surface of the Earth. We assume that the formation mechanism implies variations in the height of the water table and that the hardening rate is proportional to precipitation. The model allows us to quantify the potential feedbacks they generate on the surface topography and the thickness of the regolith/soil layer.
Jens M. Turowski, Fergus McNab, Aaron Bufe, and Stefanie Tofelde
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 97–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-97-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-97-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Channel belts comprise the area affected by a river due to lateral migration and floods. As a landform, they affect water resources and flood hazard, and they often host unique ecological communities. We develop a model describing the evolution of channel-belt area over time. The model connects the behaviour of the river to the evolution of the channel belt over a timescale of centuries. A comparison to selected data from experiments and real river systems verifies the random walk approach.
Rémi Bossis, Vincent Regard, Sébastien Carretier, and Sandrine Choy
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 71–79, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-71-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-71-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The erosion of rocky coasts occurs episodically through wave action and landslides, constituting a major natural hazard. Documenting the factors that control the coastal retreat rate over millennia is fundamental to evidencing any change in time. However, the known rates to date are essentially representative of the last few decades. Here, we present a new method using the concentration of an isotope, 10Be, in sediment eroded from the cliff to quantify its retreat rate averaged over millennia.
Jean Vérité, Clément Narteau, Olivier Rozier, Jeanne Alkalla, Laurie Barrier, and Sylvain Courrech du Pont
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 23–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-23-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-23-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Using a numerical model in 2D, we study how two identical dunes interact with each other when exposed to reversing winds. Depending on the distance between the dunes, they either repel or attract each other until they reach an equilibrium distance, which is controlled by the wind strength, wind reversal frequency, and dune size. This process is controlled by the modification of wind flow over dunes of various shapes, influencing the sediment transport downstream.
Orie Cecil, Nicholas Cohn, Matthew Farthing, Sourav Dutta, and Andrew Trautz
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-1-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Using computational fluid dynamics, we analyze the error trends of an analytical shear stress distribution model used to drive aeolian transport for coastal dunes, which are an important line of defense against storm-related flooding hazards. We find that compared to numerical simulations, the analytical model results in a net overprediction of the landward migration rate. Additionally, two data-driven approaches are proposed for reducing the error while maintaining computational efficiency.
Joshua M. Wolstenholme, Christopher J. Skinner, David J. Milan, Robert E. Thomas, and Daniel R. Parsons
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3001, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3001, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Leaky wooden dams are a popular form of natural flood management used to slow the flow of water by increasing floodplain connectivity whilst decreasing connectivity along the river profile. By monitoring two leaky wooden dams in North Yorkshire, UK, we present the geomorphological response to their installation, highlighting that the structures significantly increase channel complexity in response to different river flow conditions.
Hayden L. Jacobson, Danica L. Roth, Gabriel Walton, Margaret Zimmer, and Kerri Johnson
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1415–1446, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1415-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Loose grains travel farther after a fire because no vegetation is left to stop them. This matters since loose grains at the base of a slope can turn into a debris flow if it rains. To find if grass growing back after a fire had different impacts on grains of different sizes on slopes of different steepness, we dropped thousands of natural grains and measured how far they went. Large grains went farther 7 months after the fire than 11 months after, and small grain movement didn’t change much.
Elizabeth N. Orr, Taylor F. Schildgen, Stefanie Tofelde, Hella Wittmann, and Ricardo N. Alonso
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1391–1413, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1391-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1391-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Fluvial terraces and alluvial fans in the Toro Basin, NW Argentina, record river evolution and global climate cycles over time. Landform dating reveals lower-frequency climate cycles (100 kyr) preserved downstream and higher-frequency cycles (21/40 kyr) upstream, supporting theoretical predications that longer rivers filter out higher-frequency climate signals. This finding improves our understanding of the spatial distribution of sedimentary paleoclimate records within landscapes.
Fritz Schlunegger, Edi Kissling, Dimitri Tibo Bandou, Guilhem Amin Douillet, David Mair, Urs Marti, Regina Reber, Patrick Schläfli, and Michael Alfred Schwenk
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1371–1389, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1371-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1371-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Overdeepenings are bedrock depressions filled with sediment. We combine the results of a gravity survey with drilling data to explore the morphology of such a depression beneath the city of Bern. We find that the target overdeepening comprises two basins >200 m deep. They are separated by a bedrock riegel that itself is cut by narrow canyons up to 150 m deep. We postulate that these structures formed underneath a glacier, where erosion by subglacial meltwater caused the formation of the canyons.
Loïs Ribet, Frédéric Liébault, Laurent Borgniet, Michaël Deschâtres, and Gabriel Melun
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3697, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3697, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work presents a protocol and a model to get the size of the pebbles in mountain rivers from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle images. A set of 12 rivers located in south-eastern France were photographed to build the model. The results show that the model has little error and should be usable for similar rivers. Grain-size of mountain rivers is an important parameter for environmental diagnostics by mapping the aquatic habitats and for flood management by estimating the pebbles fluxes during floods.
Stefan Hergarten
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1315–1327, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1315-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Faceted topographies are impressive footprints of active tectonics in geomorphology. This paper investigates the evolution of faceted topographies at normal faults and their interaction with a river network theoretically and numerically. As a main result beyond several relations for the geometry of facets, the horizontal displacement associated with normal faults is crucial for the dissection of initially polygonal facets into triangular facets bounded by almost parallel rivers.
Lorenzo Durante, Nicoletta Tambroni, and Michele Bolla Pittaluga
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3552, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3552, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
River deltas are dynamic areas where rivers meet the sea. This study examines delta configurations to guide balanced development and environmental health. Using the Po River Delta, we developed a model to understand how different delta parts interact and maintain balance. Our findings show that deltas can reach varied states of balance, with some areas more prone to shift. These insights support predictions of delta changes and better management strategies.
Larry Syu-Heng Lai, Adam M. Booth, Alison R. Duvall, and Erich Herzig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3415, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3415, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
pyTopoComplexity is an open-source tool that quantifies land surface complexity using advanced methods. Applied to a landslide-affected area in Washington, USA, it accurately analyzed landform features at various scales, enhancing our understanding of landform recovery after disturbances. By integrating with Landlab’s landscape evolution simulations, the software allows researchers to explore how different processes drive the evolution of surface complexity in response to natural forces.
Justin A. Nghiem, Gen K. Li, Joshua P. Harringmeyer, Gerard Salter, Cédric G. Fichot, Luca Cortese, and Michael P. Lamb
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1267–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Fine sediment grains in freshwater can cohere into faster-settling particles called flocs, but floc settling velocity theory has not been fully validated. Combining three data sources in novel ways in the Wax Lake Delta, we verified a semi-empirical model relying on turbulence and geochemical factors. For a physics-based model, we showed that the representative grain diameter within flocs relies on floc structure and that heterogeneous flow paths inside flocs increase floc settling velocity.
Jessica Marggraf, Guillaume Dramais, Jérôme Le Coz, Blaise Calmel, Benoît Camenen, David J. Topping, William Santini, Gilles Pierrefeu, and François Lauters
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1243–1266, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Suspended-sand fluxes in rivers vary with time and space, complicating their measurement. The proposed method captures the vertical and lateral variations of suspended-sand concentration throughout a river cross-section. It merges water samples taken at various positions throughout the cross-section with high-resolution acoustic velocity measurements. This is the first method that includes a fully applicable uncertainty estimation; it can easily be applied to any other study sites.
Dominic T. Robson and Andreas C. W. Baas
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1205–1226, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1205-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1205-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Barchans are fast-moving sand dunes which form large populations (swarms) on Earth and Mars. We show that a small range of model parameters produces swarms in which dune size does not vary downwind – something that is observed in nature but not when using earlier models. We also show how the shape of dunes and the spatial patterns they form are affected by wind direction. This work furthers our understanding of the interplay between environmental drivers, dune interactions, and swarm properties.
Jeffrey Keck, Erkan Istanbulluoglu, Benjamin Campforts, Gregory Tucker, and Alexander Horner-Devine
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1165–1191, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
MassWastingRunout (MWR) is a new landslide runout model designed for sediment transport, landscape evolution, and hazard assessment applications. MWR is written in Python and includes a calibration utility that automatically determines best-fit parameters for a site and empirical probability density functions of each parameter for probabilistic model implementation. MWR and Jupyter Notebook tutorials are available as part of the Landlab package at https://github.com/landlab/landlab.
Ariane Mueting and Bodo Bookhagen
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1121–1143, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1121-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the use of optical PlanetScope data for offset tracking of the Earth's surface movement. We found that co-registration accuracy is locally degraded when outdated elevation models are used for orthorectification. To mitigate this bias, we propose to only correlate scenes acquired from common perspectives or base orthorectification on more up-to-date elevation models generated from PlanetScope data alone. This enables a more detailed analysis of landslide dynamics.
Cho-Hee Lee, Yeong Bae Seong, John Weber, Sangmin Ha, Dong-Eun Kim, and Byung Yong Yu
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1091–1120, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1091-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1091-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Topographic metrics were used to understand changes due to tectonic activity. We evaluated the relative tectonic activity along the Ulsan Fault Zone (UFZ), one of the most active fault zones in South Korea. We divided the UFZ into five segments, based on the spatial variation in activity. We modeled the landscape evolution of the study area and interpreted tectono-geomorphic history during which the northern part of the UFZ experienced asymmetric uplift, while the southern part did not.
Viktoria Kosmalla, Oliver Lojek, Jana Carus, Kara Keimer, Lukas Ahrenbeck, Björn Mehrtens, David Schürenkamp, Boris Schröder, and Nils Goseberg
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2688, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2688, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study analysed seasonal biomechanical traits of marram grass at two coastal dune sites using monthly field and lab data acquired 2022. Differences in density, leaf length, and flower stems were observed, which are unaffected by wind and deemed transferable. These findings enable surrogate model development for numerical and physical experiments alike, where live vegetation is impractical. Results address the knowledge gap how dune stability and erosion resistance are affected by vegetation.
Juditha Aga, Livia Piermattei, Luc Girod, Kristoffer Aalstad, Trond Eiken, Andreas Kääb, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1049–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1049-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal rock cliffs on Svalbard are considered to be fairly stable; however, long-term trends in coastal-retreat rates remain unknown. This study examines changes in the coastline position along Brøggerhalvøya, Svalbard, using aerial images from 1970, 1990, 2010, and 2021. Our analysis shows that coastal-retreat rates accelerate during the period 2010–2021, which coincides with increasing storminess and retreating sea ice.
Aaron T. Steelquist, Gustav B. Seixas, Mary L. Gillam, Sourav Saha, Seulgi Moon, and George E. Hilley
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1071–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1071-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1071-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The rates at which rivers erode their bed can be used to interpret the geologic history of a region. However, these rates depend significantly on the time window over which you measure. We use multiple dating methods to determine an incision rate for the San Juan River and compare it to regional rates with longer timescales. We demonstrate how specific geologic events, such as cutoffs of bedrock meander bends, are likely to preserve material we can date but also bias the rates we measure.
Jingqiu Huang and Hugh D. Sinclair
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2600, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2600, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses radar technology to track tiny changes in riverbeds elevation in Himalayan Rivers as they flow onto the Gangetic Plains. By analyzing data from 2016 to 2021, we found that sediment builds up in seasonally dry (ephemeral) rivers during monsoon seasons, while the surrounding floodplains is sinking. This research is important for understanding how these elevation changes affect flood risks in rapidly growing communities in Nepal and India. Our findings can improve flood management.
Mirjam Schaller, Daniel Peifer, Alexander B. Neely, Thomas Bernard, Christoph Glotzbach, Alexander R. Beer, and Todd A. Ehlers
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2729, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2729, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study reports chemical weathering, physical erosion, and total denudation rates from river load data in the Swabian Alb, Southwest Germany. Tributaries to the Neckar River draining to the North show higher rates than tributaries draining to the South into the Danube River causing a retreat of the Swabian Alb escarpment. Observations are discussed in the light of lithology, climate, and topography. The data are further compared to other rates over space and time as well as to global data.
Riccardo Bonomelli, Marco Pilotti, and Gabriele Farina
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2267, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2267, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows are fundamental components of the hazard in mountain regions and numerical models must be used for the related risk computation. Most existing commercial software strongly conceptualizes the main characteristics of the flow, leading to an inevitable calibration process, that is time-consuming and difficult to accomplish. This contribution offers some physically based solutions to confine the calibration process and to better understand the implications of the selected choice.
Julien Coatléven and Benoit Chauveau
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 995–1026, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-995-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-995-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The aim of this paper is to explain how to incorporate classical water flow routines into landscape evolution models while keeping numerical errors under control. The key idea is to adapt filtering strategies to eliminate anomalous numerical errors and mesh dependencies, as confirmed by convergence tests with analytic solutions. The emergence of complex geomorphic structures is now driven exclusively by nonlinear heterogeneous physical processes rather than by random numerical artifacts.
Hasan Eslami, Erfan Poursoleymanzadeh, Mojtaba Hiteh, Keivan Tavakoli, Melika Yavari Nia, Ehsan Zadehali, Reihaneh Zarrabi, and Alessio Radice
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-414, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-414, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A channel may be aggraded by overloaded sediment. In this study we realize an aggradation experiment and determine the celerity at which an aggradation wave, due to sediment overloading, migrates. We also investigate the celerity of small perturbations, as quantified based on mathematical formulations. The celerities of the two kinds are correlated with each other. However, the celerity of small perturbations is larger than the other one, that is less than a few percent of the water velocity.
Jingjuan Li, John D. Jansen, Xuanmei Fan, Zhiyong Ding, Shugang Kang, and Marco Lovati
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 953–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-953-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-953-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we investigated the geomorphology, sedimentology, and chronology of Tuanjie (seven terraces) and Taiping (three terraces) terraces in Diexi, eastern Tibetan Plateau. Results highlight that two damming and three outburst events occurred in the area during the late Pleistocene, and the outburst floods have been a major factor in the formation of tectonically active mountainous river terraces. Tectonic activity and climatic changes play a minor role.
Hanne Hendrickx, Xabier Blanch, Melanie Elias, Reynald Delaloye, and Anette Eltner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2570, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2570, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study introduces a novel AI-based method to track and analyse the movement of rock glaciers and landslides, key indicators of permafrost dynamics in high mountain regions. Using time-lapse images, our approach provides detailed velocity data, revealing patterns that traditional methods miss. This cost-effective tool enhances our ability to monitor geohazards, offering insights into climate change impacts on permafrost and improving safety in alpine areas.
Andrew Hollyday, Maureen E. Raymo, Jacqueline Austermann, Fred Richards, Mark Hoggard, and Alessio Rovere
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 883–905, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-883-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-883-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Sea level was significantly higher during the Pliocene epoch, around 3 million years ago. The present-day elevations of shorelines that formed in the past provide a data constraint on the extent of ice sheet melt and the global sea level response under warm Pliocene conditions. In this study, we identify 10 escarpments that formed from wave-cut erosion during Pliocene times and compare their elevations with model predictions of solid Earth deformation processes to estimate past sea level.
Gregory A. Ruetenik, Ken L. Ferrier, and Odin Marc
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 863–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-863-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-863-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Fluvial sediment fluxes increased dramatically in Taiwan during Typhoon Morakot in 2009, which produced some of the heaviest landsliding on record. We analyzed fluvial discharge and suspended sediment concentration data at 87 gauging stations across Taiwan to quantify fluvial sediment responses since Morakot. In basins heavily impacted by landsliding, rating curve coefficients sharply increased during Morakot and then declined exponentially with a characteristic decay time of <10 years.
Nil Carrion-Bertran, Albert Falqués, Francesca Ribas, Daniel Calvete, Rinse de Swart, Ruth Durán, Candela Marco-Peretó, Marta Marcos, Angel Amores, Tim Toomey, Àngels Fernández-Mora, and Jorge Guillén
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 819–839, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-819-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-819-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The sensitivity to the wave and sea-level forcing sources in predicting a 6-month embayed beach evolution is assessed using two different morphodynamic models. After a successful model calibration using in situ data, other sources are applied. The wave source choice is critical: hindcast data provide wrong results due to an angle bias, whilst the correct dynamics are recovered with the wave conditions from an offshore buoy. The use of different sea-level sources gives no significant differences.
Thomas J. Barnes, Thomas V. Schuler, Simon Filhol, and Karianne S. Lilleøren
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 801–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-801-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-801-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we use machine learning to automatically outline landforms based on their characteristics. We test several methods to identify the most accurate and then proceed to develop the most accurate to improve its accuracy further. We manage to outline landforms with 65 %–75 % accuracy, at a resolution of 10 m, thanks to high-quality/high-resolution elevation data. We find that it is possible to run this method at a country scale to quickly produce landform inventories for future studies.
Eric Petersen, Regine Hock, and Michael G. Loso
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 727–745, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-727-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ice cliffs are melt hot spots that increase melt rates on debris-covered glaciers which otherwise see a reduction in melt rates. In this study, we show how surface runoff streams contribute to the generation, evolution, and survival of ice cliffs by carving into the glacier and transporting rocky debris. On Kennicott Glacier, Alaska, 33 % of ice cliffs are actively influenced by streams, while nearly half are within 10 m of streams.
Daniel O'Hara, Liran Goren, Roos M. J. van Wees, Benjamin Campforts, Pablo Grosse, Pierre Lahitte, Gabor Kereszturi, and Matthieu Kervyn
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 709–726, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-709-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-709-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how volcanic edifices develop drainage basins remains unexplored in landscape evolution. Using digital evolution models of volcanoes with varying ages, we quantify the geometries of their edifices and associated drainage basins through time. We find that these metrics correlate with edifice age and are thus useful indicators of a volcano’s history. We then develop a generalized model for how volcano basins develop and compare our results to basin evolution in other settings.
Brayden Noh, Omar Wani, Kieran B. J. Dunne, and Michael P. Lamb
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 691–708, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-691-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-691-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we propose a framework for generating risk maps that provide the probabilities of erosion due to river migration. This framework uses concepts from probability theory to learn the river migration model's parameter values from satellite data while taking into account parameter uncertainty. Our analysis shows that such geomorphic risk estimation is more reliable than models that do not explicitly consider various sources of variability and uncertainty.
Steven Y. J. Lai, David Amblas, Aaron Micallef, and Hervé Capart
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 621–640, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-621-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-621-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the creation of submarine canyons and hanging-wall fans on active faults, which can be defined by gravity-dominated breaching and underflow-dominated diffusion processes. The study reveals the self-similarity in canyon–fan long profiles, uncovers Hack’s scaling relationship and proposes a formula to estimate fan volume using canyon length. This is validated by global data from source-to-sink systems, providing insights into deep-water sedimentary processes.
Anuska Narayanan, Sagy Cohen, and John R. Gardner
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 581–599, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-581-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-581-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the profound impact of deforestation in the Amazon on sediment dynamics. Novel remote sensing data and statistical analyses reveal significant changes, especially in heavily deforested regions, with rapid effects within a year. In less disturbed areas, a 1- to 2-year lag occurs, influenced by natural sediment shifts and human activities. These findings highlight the need to understand the consequences of human activity for our planet's future.
Jacob Hardt, Tim P. Dooley, and Michael R. Hudec
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 559–579, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-559-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-559-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the reaction of salt structures on ice sheet transgressions. We used a series of sandbox models that enabled us to experiment with scaled-down versions of salt bodies from northern Germany. The strongest reactions occurred when large salt pillows were partly covered by the ice load. Subsurface salt structures may play an important role in the energy transition, e.g., as energy storage. Thus, it is important to understand all processes that affect their stability.
Cited articles
Agliardi, F., Scuderi, M. M., Fusi, N., and Collettini, C.: Slow-to-fast transition of giant creeping rockslides modulated by undrained loading in basal shear zones, Nat. Commun., 11, 1352, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15093-3, 2020. a
Allen, R.: Automatic phase pickers: Their present use and future prospects, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 72, 225–242, 1882. a
Amitrano, D. and Helmstetter, A.: Brittle creep, damage, and time to failure in rocks, J. Geophys. Res., 111, B11201, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JB004252, 2006. a
Arias, A.: A Measure of Earthquake Intensity, in: Seismic Design for Nuclear Power Plants, edited by Hansen, R. J., Massachusetts Inst. of Tech. Press, Cambridge, Mass., 438–483, ISBN 9780262080415, 1970. a
Baillard, C., Crawford, W. C., Ballu, V., Hibert, C., and Mangeney, A.: An Automatic Kurtosis-Based P- and S-Phase Picker Designed for Local Seismic Networks, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 104, 394–409, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120120347, 2014. a
Ballantyne, C. K., Sandeman, G. F., Stone, J. O., and Wilson, P.: Rock-slope failure following Late Pleistocene deglaciation on tectonically stable mountainous terrain, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 86, 144–157, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.12.021, 2014. a
Barbosa, N., Leinauer, J., Jubanski, J., Dietze, M., Münzer, U., Siegert, F., and Krautblatter, M.: Massive sediment pulses triggered by a multi-stage 130 000 m3 alpine cliff fall (Hochvogel, DE–AT), Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 249–269, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-249-2024, 2024. a
BGR: Deutscher Erdbebenkatalog: Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe, BGR [data set], https://services.bgr.de/geophysik/gerseis (last access: 1 December 2023), 2023. a
Blanchet, J., Blanc, A., and Creutin, J.-D.: Explaining recent trends in extreme precipitation in the Southwestern Alps by changes in atmospheric influences, Weather Clim. Extrem., 33, 100356, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100356, 2021. a, b
Blikra, L. H. and Christiansen, H. H.: A field-based model of permafrost-controlled rockslide deformation in northern Norway, Geomorphology, 208, 34–49, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2013.11.014, 2014. a, b
Borri-Brunetto, M., Carpinteri, A., and Chiaia, B.: The Effect of Scale and Criticality in Rock Slope Stability, Rock Mech. Rock Eng., 37, 117–126, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00603-003-0004-1, 2004. a
Breiman, L.: Random Forests, Mach. Learn., 45, 5–32, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010933404324, 2001. a
Burjánek, J., Gassner-Stamm, G., Poggi, V., Moore, J. R., and Fäh, D.: Ambient vibration analysis of an unstable mountain slope, Geophys. J. Int., 180, 820–828, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2009.04451.x, 2010. a, b, c
Burjánek, J., Moore, J. R., Yugsi Molina, F. X., and Fäh, D.: Instrumental evidence of normal mode rock slope vibration, Geophys. J. Int., 188, 559–569, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05272.x, 2012. a, b, c, d
Chae, B.-G., Park, H.-J., Catani, F., Simoni, A., and Berti, M.: Landslide prediction, monitoring and early warning: a concise review of state-of-the-art, Geosci. J., 21, 1033–1070, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12303-017-0034-4, 2017. a
Crosta, G. B. and Agliardi, F.: Failure forecast for large rock slides by surface displacement measurements, Can. Geotech. J., 40, 176–191, https://doi.org/10.1139/T02-085, 2003. a
Crosta, G. B., Di Prisco, C., Frattini, P., Frigerio, G., Castellanza, R., and Agliardi, F.: Chasing a complete understanding of the triggering mechanisms of a large rapidly evolving rockslide, Landslides, 11, 747–764, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-013-0433-1, 2014. a
Dietrich, A. and Krautblatter, M.: Evidence for enhanced debris-flow activity in the Northern Calcareous Alps since the 1980s (Plansee, Austria), Geomorphology, 287, 144–158, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.01.013, 2017. a
Dietze, M.: The R package “eseis” – a software toolbox for environmental seismology, Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 669–686, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-669-2018, 2018a. a
Dietze, M.: `eseis' – a comprehensive R software toolbox for environmental seismology, GFZ Data Services [code], https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.5.1.2018.001, 2018b. a
Dietze, M., Burtin, A., Simard, S., and Hovius, N.: The mediating role of trees – transfer and feedback mechanisms of wind-driven seismic activity, in: EGU General Assembly Conference, Geophys. Res. Abstr., 17, EGU2015-5118, 2015. a
Dietze, M., Mohadjer, S., Turowski, J. M., Ehlers, T. A., and Hovius, N.: Seismic monitoring of small alpine rockfalls – validity, precision and limitations, Earth Surf. Dynam., 5, 653–668, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-653-2017, 2017a. a
Dietze, M., Turowski, J. M., Cook, K. L., and Hovius, N.: Spatiotemporal patterns, triggers and anatomies of seismically detected rockfalls, Earth Surf. Dynam., 5, 757–779, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-757-2017, 2017b. a, b, c
Eberhardt, E., Stead, D., and Coggan, J. S.: Numerical analysis of initiation and progressive failure in natural rock slopes – the 1991 Randa rockslide, Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci., 41, 69–87, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1365-1609(03)00076-5, 2004. a
Erismann, T. H. and Abele, G.: Dynamics of rockslides and rockfalls, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, ISBN 978-3-662-04639-5, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-04639-5, 2001. a, b
Evans, S. G., Mugnozza, G. S., Strom, A., Hermanns, R. L., Ischuk, A., and Vinnichenko, S.: Landslides from massive rock slope failure and associated phenomena, in: Landslides from Massive Rock Slope Failure, vol. 49 of NATO Science Series, edited by: Evans, S. G., Mugnozza, G. S., Strom, A., and Hermanns, R. L., Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, 3–52, ISBN 978-1-4020-4035-1, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-4037-5_1, 2006. a, b
Frei, C., Schöll, R., Fukutome, S., Schmidli, J., and Vidale, P. L.: Future change of precipitation extremes in Europe: Intercomparison of scenarios from regional climate models, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D06105, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD005965, 2006. a
Frei, P., Kotlarski, S., Liniger, M. A., and Schär, C.: Future snowfall in the Alps: projections based on the EURO-CORDEX regional climate models, The Cryosphere, 12, 1–24, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1-2018, 2018. a
Gariano, S. L. and Guzzetti, F.: Landslides in a changing climate, Earth-Sci. Rev., 162, 227–252, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.08.011, 2016. a, b
Gischig, V., Preisig, G., and Eberhardt, E.: Numerical Investigation of Seismically Induced Rock Mass Fatigue as a Mechanism Contributing to the Progressive Failure of Deep-Seated Landslides, Rock Mech. Rock Eng., 49, 2457–2478, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00603-015-0821-z, 2016. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i
Guzzetti, F.: On the Prediction of Landslides and Their Consequences, in: Understanding and Reducing Landslide Disaster Risk, ICL Contribution to Landslide Disaster Risk Reduction, edited by: Sassa, K., Mikoš, M., Sassa, S., Bobrowsky, P. T., Takara, K., and Dang, K., Springer International Publishing, Cham, 3–32, ISBN 978-3-030-60195-9, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-60196-6_1, 2021. a
Harp, E. L. and Jibson, R. W.: Anomalous Concentrations of Seismically Triggered Rock Falls in Pacoima Canyon: Are They Caused by Highly Susceptible Slopes or Local Amplification of Seismic Shaking?, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 92, 3180–3189, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120010171, 2002. a
Heckmann, T., Bimböse, M., Krautblatter, M., Haas, F., Becht, M., and Morche, D.: From geotechnical analysis to quantification and modelling using LiDAR data: a study on rockfall in the Reintal catchment, Bavarian Alps, Germany, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 37, 119–133, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.2250, 2012. a
Helmstetter, A. and Garambois, S.: Seismic monitoring of Séchilienne rockslide (French Alps): Analysis of seismic signals and their correlation with rainfalls, J. Geophys. Res., 115, F03016, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JF001532, 2010. a, b, c, d
Hibert, C., Mangeney, A., Grandjean, G., and Shapiro, N. M.: Slope instabilities in Dolomieu crater, Réunion Island: From seismic signals to rockfall characteristics, J. Geophys. Res., 116, F04032, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JF002038, 2011. a
Hibert, C., Provost, F., Malet, J.-P., Maggi, A., Stumpf, A., and Ferrazzini, V.: Automatic identification of rockfalls and volcano-tectonic earthquakes at the Piton de la Fournaise volcano using a Random Forest algorithm, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 340, 130–142, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2017.04.015, 2017. a, b, c, d
Hilger, P., Hermanns, R. L., Czekirda, J., Myhra, K. S., Gosse, J. C., and Etzelmüller, B.: Permafrost as a first order control on long-term rock-slope deformation in (Sub-)Arctic Norway, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 251, 106718, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106718, 2021. a
Huss, M., Bookhagen, B., Huggel, C., Jacobsen, D., Bradley, R. S., Clague, J. J., Vuille, M., Buytaert, W., Cayan, D. R., Greenwood, G., Mark, B. G., Milner, A. M., Weingartner, R., and Winder, M.: Toward mountains without permanent snow and ice, Earth's Future, 5, 418–435, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000514, 2017. a, b, c
Hutter, P.: Damals im Oberallgäu: Geschichte(n) aus der südlichsten Region Deutschlands, in: 1st. Edn., Ed. Limosa, Clenze, ISBN 978-3-86037-401-6, 2010. a
IPCC (Ed.): Climate change 2013: The physical science basis, in: Working Group I contribution to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, ISBN 978-1-107-66182-0, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324, 2013. a
IPCC (Ed.): Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects, in: Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, ISBN 978-1-107-68386-0, 2014. a
IPCC (Ed.): Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystem, edited by: Shukla, P. R., Skea, J., Calvo Buendia, E., Masson-Delmotte, V., Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Zhai, P., Slade, R., Connors, S., van Diemen, R., Ferrat, M., Haughey, E., Luz, S., Neogi, S., Pathak, M., Petzold, J., Portugal Pereira, J., Vyas, P., Huntley, E., Kissick, K., Belkacemi, M., and Malley, J., Cambridge University Press, in press, 2019. a, b
Jibson, R. W.: Regression models for estimating coseismic landslide displacement, Eng. Geol., 91, 209–218, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2007.01.013, 2007. a
Jibson, R. W., Harp, E. L., and Michael, J. A.: A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps, Eng. Geol., 58, 271–289, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0013-7952(00)00039-9, 2000. a, b
Jibson, R. W., Harp, E. L., Schulz, W., and Keefer, D. K.: Large rock avalanches triggered by the M 7.9 Denali Fault, Alaska, earthquake of 3 November 2002, Eng. Geol., 83, 144–160, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2005.06.029, 2006. a
Kawagoe, S., Kazama, S., and Ranjan Sarukkalige, P.: Assessment of snowmelt triggered landslide hazard and risk in Japan, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 58, 120–129, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2009.05.004, 2009. a, b, c
Kemeny, J.: The Time-Dependent Reduction of Sliding Cohesion due to Rock Bridges Along Discontinuities: A Fracture Mechanics Approach, Rock Mech. Rock Eng., 36, 27–38, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00603-002-0032-2, 2003. a
Khan, S., van der Meijde, M., van der Werff, H., and Shafique, M.: The impact of topography on seismic amplification during the 2005 Kashmir earthquake, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 399–411, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-399-2020, 2020. a, b
Kiefer, C., Oswald, P., Moernaut, J., Fabbri, S. C., Mayr, C., Strasser, M., and Krautblatter, M.: A 4000-year debris flow record based on amphibious investigations of fan delta activity in Plansee (Austria, Eastern Alps), Earth Surf. Dynam., 9, 1481–1503, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1481-2021, 2021. a
Knapp, S., Gilli, A., Anselmetti, F. S., Krautblatter, M., and Hajdas, I.: Multistage Rock–Slope Failures Revealed in Lake Sediments in a Seismically Active Alpine Region (Lake Oeschinen, Switzerland), J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 123, 658–677, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JF004455, 2018. a, b
Krautblatter, M. and Moser, M.: A nonlinear model coupling rockfall and rainfall intensity based on a four year measurement in a high Alpine rock wall (Reintal, German Alps), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 1425–1432, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-1425-2009, 2009. a
Krautblatter, M., Funk, D., and Günzel, F. K.: Why permafrost rocks become unstable: a rock–ice–mechanical model in time and space, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 38, 876–887, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.3374, 2013. a
Kristensen, L., Czekirda, J., Penna, I., Etzelmüller, B., Nicolet, P., Pullarello, J. S., Blikra, L. H., Skrede, I., Oldani, S., and Abellan, A.: Movements, failure and climatic control of the Veslemannen rockslide, Western Norway, Landslides, 18, 1963–1980, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-020-01609-x, 2021. a, b, c
Krøgli, I. K., Devoli, G., Colleuille, H., Boje, S., Sund, M., and Engen, I. K.: The Norwegian forecasting and warning service for rainfall- and snowmelt-induced landslides, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1427–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1427-2018, 2018. a, b
Lacasse, S. and Nadim, F.: Landslide Risk Assessment and Mitigation Strategy, in: Landslides – Disaster Risk Reduction, edited by: Sassa, K. and Canuti, P., Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 31–61, ISBN 978-3-540-69966-8, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-69970-5_3, 2009. a
Lagarde, S., Dietze, M., Hammer, C., Zeckra, M., Voigtländer, A., Illien, L., Schöpa, A., Hirschberg, J., Burtin, A., Hovius, N., and Turowski, J. M.: Rock slope failure preparation paced by total crack boundary length, Commun. Earth Environ., 4, 201, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00851-0, 2023. a, b, c, d, e
LaHusen, S. R., Duvall, A. R., Booth, A. M., Grant, A., Mishkin, B. A., Montgomery, D. R., Struble, W., Roering, J. J., and Wartman, J.: Rainfall triggers more deep-seated landslides than Cascadia earthquakes in the Oregon Coast Range, USA, Sci. Adv., 6, eaba6790, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aba6790, 2020. a, b
Langet, N. and Silverberg, F. M. J.: Automated classification of seismic signals recorded on the Åknes rock slope, Western Norway, using a convolutional neural network, Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 89–115, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-89-2023, 2023. a, b
Lee, S.-J., Chan, Y.-C., Komatitsch, D., Huang, B.-S., and Tromp, J.: Effects of Realistic Surface Topography on Seismic Ground Motion in the Yangminshan Region of Taiwan Based Upon the Spectral-Element Method and LiDAR DTM, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 99, 681–693, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120080264, 2009a. a, b
Lee, S.-J., Komatitsch, D., Huang, B.-S., and Tromp, J.: Effects of Topography on Seismic-Wave Propagation: An Example from Northern Taiwan, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 99, 314–325, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120080020, 2009b. a
Lehning, M., Bartelt, P., Brown, B., Russi, T., Stöckli, U., and Zimmerli, M.: Snowpack model calculations for avalanche warning based upon a new network of weather and snow stations, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 30, 145–157, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-232X(99)00022-1, 1999. a
Leinauer, J.: Collection of R-codes and data for analysis of drivers at the Hochvogel rock slope instability, Zenodo [code and data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10567098, 2024. a, b, c
Leinauer, J., Jacobs, B., and Krautblatter, M.: Anticipating an imminent large rock slope failure at the Hochvogel (Allgäu Alps), Geomech. Tunnel., 13, 597–603, https://doi.org/10.1002/geot.202000027, 2020. a, b, c
Leinauer, J., Jacobs, B., and Krautblatter, M.: High alpine geotechnical real time monitoring and early warning at a large imminent rock slope failure (Hochvogel, GER/AUT), IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci., 833, 012146, https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/833/1/012146, 2021. a
Leinauer, J., Weber, S., Cicoira, A., Beutel, J., and Krautblatter, M.: An approach for prospective forecasting of rock slope failure time, Commun. Earth Environ., 4, 253, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00909-z, 2023. a
Le Roux, E., Evin, G., Samacoïts, R., Eckert, N., Blanchet, J., and Morin, S.: Projection of snowfall extremes in the French Alps as a function of elevation and global warming level, The Cryosphere, 17, 4691–4704, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4691-2023, 2023. a
Loew, S., Gschwind, S., Gischig, V., Keller-Signer, A., and Valenti, G.: Monitoring and early warning of the 2012 Preonzo catastrophic rockslope failure, Landslides, 14, 141–154, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-016-0701-y, 2017. a
Lorenzi, V., Banzato, F., Barberio, M. D., Goeppert, N., Goldscheider, N., Gori, F., Lacchini, A., Manetta, M., Medici, G., Rusi, S., and Petitta, M.: Tracking flowpaths in a complex karst system through tracer test and hydrogeochemical monitoring: Implications for groundwater protection (Gran Sasso, Italy), Heliyon, 10, e24663, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e24663, 2024. a
Lott, F. F., Ritter, J. R. R., Al-Qaryouti, M., and Corsmeier, U.: On the Analysis of Wind-Induced Noise in Seismological Recordings, Pure Appl. Geophys., 174, 1453–1470, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-017-1477-2, 2017. a
Mamot, P., Weber, S., Eppinger, S., and Krautblatter, M.: A temperature-dependent mechanical model to assess the stability of degrading permafrost rock slopes, Earth Surf. Dynam., 9, 1125–1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1125-2021, 2021. a
Marc, O., Hovius, N., Meunier, P., Gorum, T., and Uchida, T.: A seismologically consistent expression for the total area and volume of earthquake-triggered landsliding, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 121, 640–663, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JF003732, 2016. a
Massey, C. I., Olsen, M. J., Wartman, J., Senogles, A., Lukovic, B., Leshchinsky, B. A., Archibald, G., Litchfield, N., van Dissen, R., de Vilder, S., and Holden, C.: Rockfall Activity Rates Before, During and After the 2010/2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 127, e2021JF006400, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JF006400, 2022. a, b, c, d
Masson, D. and Frei, C.: Long-term variations and trends of mesoscale precipitation in the Alps: recalculation and update for 1901–2008, Int. J. Climat., 36, 492–500, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4343, 2016. a
Ménégoz, M., Valla, E., Jourdain, N. C., Blanchet, J., Beaumet, J., Wilhelm, B., Gallée, H., Fettweis, X., Morin, S., and Anquetin, S.: Contrasting seasonal changes in total and intense precipitation in the European Alps from 1903 to 2010, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5355–5377, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5355-2020, 2020. a, b
Meunier, P., Hovius, N., and Haines, A. J.: Regional patterns of earthquake-triggered landslides and their relation to ground motion, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L20408, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031337, 2007. a, b, c, d
Meunier, P., Hovius, N., and Haines, J. A.: Topographic site effects and the location of earthquake induced landslides, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 275, 221–232, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2008.07.020, 2008. a, b
Meyenfeld, H.: Modellierungen seismisch ausgelöster gravitativer Massenbewegungen für die Schwäbische Alb und den Raum Bonn und Erstellen von Gefahrenhinweiskarten: Dissertation, ULB Bonn, Bonn, https://bonndoc.ulb.uni-bonn.de/xmlui/handle/20.500.11811/4047 (last access: 1 December 2023), 2009. a, b
Miles, S. B. and Keefer, D. K.: Seismic Landslide Hazard for the City of Berkeley, California, US Geological Survey, https://doi.org/10.3133/mf2378, 2001. a, b
Mulas, M., Marnas, M., Ciccarese, G., and Corsini, A.: Sinusoidal wave fit indexing of irreversible displacements for crackmeters monitoring of rockfall areas: test at Pietra di Bismantova (Northern Apennines, Italy), Landslides, 17, 231–240, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-019-01248-x, 2020. a, b
Oswald, P., Strasser, M., Hammerl, C., and Moernaut, J.: Seismic control of large prehistoric rockslides in the Eastern Alps, Nat. Commun., 12, 1059, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21327-9, 2021. a, b, c, d
Oswald, P., Strasser, M., Skapski, J., and Moernaut, J.: Magnitude and source area estimations of severe prehistoric earthquakes in the western Austrian Alps, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2057–2079, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2057-2022, 2022. a, b
Pecoraro, G., Calvello, M., and Piciullo, L.: Monitoring strategies for local landslide early warning systems, Landslides, 16, 213–231, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-018-1068-z, 2019. a
Pendergrass, A. G., Coleman, D. B., Deser, C., Lehner, F., Rosenbloom, N., and Simpson, I. R.: Nonlinear Response of Extreme Precipitation to Warming in CESM1, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 10551–10560, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084826, 2019. a, b
Petley, D. N.: The evolution of slope failures: mechanisms of rupture propagation, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 147–152, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-4-147-2004, 2004. a
Picarelli, L., Lacasse, S., and Ho, K. K. S.: The Impact of Climate Change on Landslide Hazard and Risk, in: Understanding and Reducing Landslide Disaster Risk, ICL Contribution to Landslide Disaster Risk Reduction, edited by: Sassa, K., Mikoš, M., Sassa, S., Bobrowsky, P. T., Takara, K., and Dang, K., Springer International Publishing, Cham, 131–141, ISBN 978-3-030-60195-9, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-60196-6_6, 2021. a, b, c
Prein, A. F., Liu, C., Ikeda, K., Trier, S. B., Rasmussen, R. M., Holland, G. J., and Clark, M. P.: Increased rainfall volume from future convective storms in the US, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 880–884, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0007-7, 2017. a
Preisig, G., Eberhardt, E., Smithyman, M., Preh, A., and Bonzanigo, L.: Hydromechanical Rock Mass Fatigue in Deep-Seated Landslides Accompanying Seasonal Variations in Pore Pressures, Rock Mech. Rock Eng., 49, 2333–2351, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00603-016-0912-5, 2016. a
Provost, F., Hibert, C., and Malet, J.-P.: Automatic classification of endogenous landslide seismicity using the Random Forest supervised classifier, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 113–120, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070709, 2017. a, b, c
R Core Team: R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing, https://www.R-project.org/ (last access: 1 December 2023), 2023. a
Sättele, M., Krautblatter, M., Bründl, M., and Straub, D.: Forecasting rock slope failure: how reliable and effective are warning systems?, Landslides, 13, 737–750, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-015-0605-2, 2016. a
Scandroglio, R., Stoll, V., and Krautblatter, M.: The driving force of all nature. Modelling water pressure and its stability consequences on alpine bedrock slopes, IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci., 833, 012109, https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/833/1/012109, 2021. a, b
SED: Earthquake Catalogue: Swiss Seismological Service, SED [data set], http://www.seismo.ethz.ch/en/research-and-teaching/products-software/earthquake-catalogues/ (last access: 1 December 2023), 2023. a
Senfaute, G., Duperret, A., and Lawrence, J. A.: Micro-seismic precursory cracks prior to rock-fall on coastal chalk cliffs: a case study at Mesnil-Val, Normandie, NW France, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 1625–1641, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-1625-2009, 2009. a, b
Sepúlveda, S. A., Murphy, W., Jibson, R. W., and Petley, D. N.: Seismically induced rock slope failures resulting from topographic amplification of strong ground motions: The case of Pacoima Canyon, California, Eng. Geol., 80, 336–348, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2005.07.004, 2005. a
Uhlmann, B., Goyette, S., and Beniston, M.: Sensitivity analysis of snow patterns in Swiss ski resorts to shifts in temperature, precipitation and humidity under conditions of climate change, Int. J. Climatol., 29, 1048–1055, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1786, 2009. a
USGS: Earthquake Catalogue, US Geological Survey, USGS [data set], https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/ (last access: 1 December 2023), 2023. a
Voigtländer, A., Leith, K., and Krautblatter, M.: Subcritical Crack Growth and Progressive Failure in Carrara Marble Under Wet and Dry Conditions, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 123, 3780–3798, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JB014956, 2018. a
Wenner, M., Hibert, C., van Herwijnen, A., Meier, L., and Walter, F.: Near-real-time automated classification of seismic signals of slope failures with continuous random forests, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 339–361, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-339-2021, 2021. a, b
Wilson, R. C. and Keefer, D. K.: Predicting Areal Limits of Earthquake-Induced Landsliding, in: Evaluating Earthquake Hazards in the Los Angeles Region – An Earth-Science Perspective, USGS – US Geological Survey, 316–345, https://doi.org/10.3133/pp1360, 1985. a, b, c
Wyllie, D. C. and Mah, C. W.: Rock slope engineering: Civil and mining, in: 4th Edn.,Spon Press, New York, NY, ISBN 978-0-415-28001-3, http://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy0650/2003014937-d.html (last access: 1 December 2023), 2004. a
Zhang, X., Wan, H., Zwiers, F. W., Hegerl, G. C., and Min, S.-K.: Attributing intensification of precipitation extremes to human influence, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 5252–5257, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.51010, 2013. a
Short summary
Massive rock slope failures are a significant alpine hazard and change the Earth's surface. Therefore, we must understand what controls the preparation of such events. By correlating 4 years of slope displacements with meteorological and seismic data, we found that water from rain and snowmelt is the most important driver. Our approach is applicable to similar sites and indicates where future climatic changes, e.g. in rain intensity and frequency, may alter the preparation of slope failure.
Massive rock slope failures are a significant alpine hazard and change the Earth's surface....
