Articles | Volume 7, issue 1
Earth Surf. Dynam., 7, 301–320, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-301-2019
Earth Surf. Dynam., 7, 301–320, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-301-2019

Research article 18 Mar 2019

Research article | 18 Mar 2019

Development of proglacial lakes and evaluation of related outburst susceptibility at the Adygine ice-debris complex, northern Tien Shan

Kristyna Falatkova et al.

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Cited articles

Aizen, V. B., Aizen, E. M., and Melack, J. M.: Precipitation, melt and runoff in the northern Tien Shan, J. Hydrol., 186, 229–251, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(96)03022-3, 1996. 
Aizen, V. B., Kuzmichenok, V. A., Surazakov, A. B., and Aizen, E. M.: Glacier changes in the central and northern Tien Shan during the last 140 years based on surface and remote-sensing data, Ann. Glaciol., 43, 202–213, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756406781812465, 2006. 
Aizen, V. B., Kuzmichenok, V. A., Surazakov, A. B., and Aizen, E. M.: Glacier changes in the Tien Shan as determined from topographic and remotely sensed data, Global Planet. Change, 56, 328–340, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.07.016, 2007a. 
Aizen, V. B., Aizen, E. M., and Kuzmichonok, V. A.: Glaciers and hydrological changes in the Tien Shan: simulation and prediction, Environ. Res. Lett., 2, 045019, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/2/4/045019, 2007b. 
Alean, J.: Ice avalanches: some empirical information about their formation and reach, J. Glaciol., 31, 324–333, https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000006663, 1985. 
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Short summary
In the last 50 years the Adygine glacier has been subject to relatively fast recession comparable to other glaciers in Tien Shan. As a consequence, a three-level cascade of glacial lakes formed, two of which were categorised as having medium outburst susceptibility. By 2050, the glacier is expected to have shrunk to 56–73 % of its 2012 extent. Further development of the site will result in formation of new lakes and probably also increase of outburst susceptibility due to permafrost degradation.